From the perspective of market influence in the medium term, the following 4 external factors can be highlighted:

1) Tariffs, rising inflation, and the slowdown of the U.S. economy.
2) The cessation of the war in Ukraine by Russia.
3) The reduction of the budget deficit by Musk.
4) Regulations in the U.S. cryptocurrency market.

Let's analyze them in more detail:

1) Tariffs and the slowdown of the U.S. economy.

Tariffs or import duties clearly bring about both an increase in the tax burden on the U.S. economy and rising inflation. At the moment, we can talk about the introduction of tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting from March 4 and an increase in tariffs on China by 10+10%. It is likely that tariffs on the EU can be expected from April. At the same time, China, Mexico, and Canada account for half of the U.S. imports. With U.S. imports of goods at 11% of GDP, I estimate the increase in inflation in the U.S. in the short term from 3% to 4% and a further rise in inflation to 4-5%. This creates a long-term forecast for the Fed of no reduction in rates in 2025, or even another rate hike in a pessimistic scenario for Fed behavior. It is obvious to me that this factor is very negative for the cryptocurrency market. Any news about rising inflation in the U.S. and the Fed's statement about raising rates or hinting at a hike will lead to a decline in the crypto market (which we actually experienced in 2022). Personally, I do not believe in a scenario of slowing economic growth in the U.S. because rising tariffs will encourage both the relocation of production to the U.S. and preferences for local producers. Therefore, I consider the likelihood of an economic downturn in the U.S. amid rising inflation (stagflation) to be minimal. However, any GDP forecast worse than the expectations will contribute to a decline in the cryptocurrency market.

Overall, here expensive money will prefer to stay in a safe haven in the form of U.S. bonds with rates of 4-5%, causing liquidity to flow out from risk assets.

The unfolding of this negative factor is extremely high, and it has already started to play out in the market that we are currently observing. Any postponement of the implementation of import tariffs will be very positively received by the market.

2. The cessation of the war in Ukraine by Russia.

Currently, President Trump is making efforts to stop the war in Ukraine, trying to fulfill his election promises on one hand while also seeking bonuses for the U.S. economy and increasing influence over both Ukraine and Russia on the other. In Trump's logic, transferring security in Europe to European countries allows for both cutting military budgets and transitioning from a state of war to cooperation and economic collaboration, with active U.S. involvement in economic cooperation processes for its own benefit and to politically distance Russia from China's vassalage. The realization of such a scenario will likely lead to the lifting of sanctions on the Russian economy, especially oil sanctions, which, along with stimulating the extraction of energy resources within the U.S., creates a significant lever for lowering energy and oil prices globally. This will positively impact inflationary processes in the U.S. and positively influence stock markets worldwide and the growth of the cryptocurrency market as well. This minimizes the impact of factor 1 on the market.

Positive signals for the cryptocurrency market here include the signing of agreements with Ukraine and Russia. The cessation of hostilities in Ukraine and the lifting of sanctions on Russia, primarily oil sanctions.

The realization of this scenario is currently hindered by a spat with Zelensky and is in a postponed state. At the same time, Russia has obviously been offered certain benefits, which will likely satisfy Russia to end the war in Ukraine.

3. The reduction of the budget deficit by Musk.

The actions of the Department of State Efficiency of Doge at the moment, which I understood even before the processes were launched, are facing significant aggression and resistance within the U.S., currently creating a negative impact on the market. At the same time, the formation of a more efficient bureaucratic machine improves service quality and minimizes federal budget expenditures, which contributes to a reduction in the budget deficit. This creates lower demand for U.S. government securities, forming an additional liquidity pool that can shift to both the stock market and the cryptocurrency market, which is positive for the market in the medium term. Moreover, minimizing the budget deficit should also put pressure on the cost of debt securities, making them less profitable on expectations, which is also positive for the cryptocurrency market. At the same time, it is evident to me that sooner or later, the reduction of government spending in the U.S. will reach such a significant expenditure item as debt servicing, and here the conflict with the Fed may escalate significantly against the backdrop of the Fed's unwillingness to lower rates and servicing costs of 1 trillion dollars per year. Most likely, the conflict with the Fed will either lead to a change in leadership at the Fed or to turmoil in financial markets with negative dynamics.

By the time the 2026 budget is formed, the current measures by Doge can roughly reduce expenditures by up to 200 billion dollars or less than 1% of GDP. Therefore, the effect of these processes will likely be noticeable by the end of 2025, amidst real reductions in the budget deficit proposed for the 2026 fiscal year, which starts in the U.S. on October 1, 2025, and beyond.

Positive signals for the market in these processes will be the minimization of the growth of U.S. national debt and a decrease in the cost of U.S. debt securities. Negative signals will include a public conflict with the Fed.

4. Regulations in the U.S. market.

The overload of the securities commission that has already taken place, the personal support of cryptocurrency market development by the President of the United States, the decree on the formation of new market regulations within 180 days, the cancellation of lawsuits by the commission against the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S., Coinbase, and the determination of the status of meme coins not as securities, which has already been issued by the commission - all these are positive aspects for the cryptocurrency market in the medium term.

At the same time, a final understanding of regulation will likely be known by the end of summer 2025, and here a positive perception of the commission's proposals will serve as a catalyst for market growth. Disappointment with the proposals will lead to a neutral or negative effect on the market.

Medium-term forecast:

Based on the external events mentioned, the main factor influencing the cryptocurrency market right now is the first one in the form of rising inflation in the U.S., which will contribute to a decline in the cryptocurrency market in the coming months.

The effect of rising inflation can be minimized by the cessation of the war in Ukraine and the lifting of oil sanctions on Russia. However, currently, due to the breakdown of negotiations, the likelihood of ending the war in Ukraine is being pushed into an uncertain timeframe. Although I currently consider the scenario of ending the war in Ukraine by the summer of this year through diplomatic efforts to be high, which will create opportunities for transitioning from war to economic cooperation.

Positive effects from factors 3-4 are likely to be noticeable by August-September 2025.

Therefore, the medium-term forecast is a market decline or stagnation in the coming months, with the formation of positive growth factors starting from autumn 2025.