2.26 Accurate Market Analysis
Good evening, brothers. There was a significant drop yesterday, exceeding expectations. The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index fell to 21, a new low since August 2024, indicating extreme fear.
Why did it crash? Our exclusive analysis is as follows:
The root cause is still Trump's tariff policy, which has led to an increase in market expectations for inflation.
(1) BTC has been sideways for more than 20 days, with no signs of a rise, leaving the entire market shrouded in uncertainty.
(2) Suddenly encountering the Bybit hacker incident has heightened the anxiety of many individuals.
(3) Trump suddenly emphasized tariffs again, causing a significant drop in U.S. stocks, putting pressure on risk assets. The combination of these three factors made it difficult for many large investors to bear the emotional strain, leading to a frenzy of selling. Coupled with insufficient market support, BTC dropped from $95,000 to a maximum of $86,000. During the decline, Binance saw a significant inflow of BTC, exceeding 10,000, while Coinbase experienced a net outflow of BTC. Therefore, the main force behind this sell-off came from Binance. The U.S. market is still trying to bottom out, and the emotional index for crypto asset wallets has reached its lowest level since August. There is a clear sign of inflow into stablecoins on-chain, as people navigate through the uncertainties, and not every trade can be successful.
We can only pursue a broadly correct direction. Whether the market will drop significantly again and fall below $85,000 depends on Friday night’s PCE data. Our long-term prediction for the market is as follows:
Next week, BTC should be able to rise above $92,000, but it has not yet exited the danger zone. A second test of $85,000 in early March cannot be ruled out, but by mid to late March, it should recover, with BTC standing above $95,000. The probability of a drop to $70,000 is very low, due to the cost of buyers over the past five months ($94,000) and the average miner's cost ($93,000).
Good evening, brothers. There was a significant drop yesterday, exceeding expectations. The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index fell to 21, a new low since August 2024, indicating extreme fear.
Why did it crash? Our exclusive analysis is as follows:
The root cause is still Trump's tariff policy, which has led to an increase in market expectations for inflation.
(1) BTC has been sideways for more than 20 days, with no signs of a rise, leaving the entire market shrouded in uncertainty.
(2) Suddenly encountering the Bybit hacker incident has heightened the anxiety of many individuals.
(3) Trump suddenly emphasized tariffs again, causing a significant drop in U.S. stocks, putting pressure on risk assets. The combination of these three factors made it difficult for many large investors to bear the emotional strain, leading to a frenzy of selling. Coupled with insufficient market support, BTC dropped from $95,000 to a maximum of $86,000. During the decline, Binance saw a significant inflow of BTC, exceeding 10,000, while Coinbase experienced a net outflow of BTC. Therefore, the main force behind this sell-off came from Binance. The U.S. market is still trying to bottom out, and the emotional index for crypto asset wallets has reached its lowest level since August. There is a clear sign of inflow into stablecoins on-chain, as people navigate through the uncertainties, and not every trade can be successful.
We can only pursue a broadly correct direction. Whether the market will drop significantly again and fall below $85,000 depends on Friday night’s PCE data. Our long-term prediction for the market is as follows:
Next week, BTC should be able to rise above $92,000, but it has not yet exited the danger zone. A second test of $85,000 in early March cannot be ruled out, but by mid to late March, it should recover, with BTC standing above $95,000. The probability of a drop to $70,000 is very low, due to the cost of buyers over the past five months ($94,000) and the average miner's cost ($93,000).