Dramatic Decline in Toncoin’s Price

Toncoin (TON) is experiencing a significant downturn, officially entering a bear market. After reaching its all-time high of $8.27 in June 2024, the token has plunged by 57%, causing its market capitalization to shrink from $18 billion to $8.8 billion.

The primary trigger for this decline was the arrest of the project's founder, Pavel Durov, in France, where he faces 12 criminal charges, including drug trafficking, illegal content distribution, and facilitating suspicious transactions.

TON Ecosystem Faces Collapse

Toncoin’s downward spiral has been further exacerbated by the poor performance of projects built on the TON blockchain.

✅ Hamster Kombat, the ecosystem’s biggest project, has dropped by more than 80% from its all-time high, reducing its value to just $103 million. Analysts had previously predicted a market capitalization exceeding $10 billion.
✅ Other projects, including Tapswap, Notcoin, Catizen, and DOGS, have also suffered double-digit losses.

Beyond the decline in individual tokens, TON’s overall network activity is also collapsing:

📉 Monthly active wallets have dropped to 4 million, marking the lowest level since July 2023. In August 2023, the network had over 12 million active wallets.
📉 Daily new wallet activations have plummeted from 655,000 to just 30,778.
📉 Total value locked (TVL) in TON’s DeFi protocols has plunged to $172 million, pushing the network down to the 37th-largest blockchain.

In contrast, other blockchains continue to thrive. For example, Base processed $40 billion in transactions last month, while TON handled only $629 million.

Technical Analysis: Toncoin Facing Further Declines

From a technical perspective, Toncoin has broken through multiple key support levels, signaling a continued bearish outlook:

🔴 The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) have formed a "death cross," a strong bearish indicator.
🔴 The price has fallen below the critical 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, often considered a strong sell signal.
🔴 Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD indicators suggest further market weakness.

Given these factors, analysts predict that Toncoin could drop further to its next key support level at $2.68, aligning with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

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