The six-year-old coin PI is finally going online. Is it a social fission artifact or a Ponzi scheme?

Written by: Alvis

Introduction: When “mobile phone mining” becomes a reality

"February 20, 2025, 16:00, this time will be written into the history of encryption - either it will be the coronation moment of Pi Network to the top of the 'civilian blockchain', or it will be the starting point of the bursting of the largest air coin bubble in history."

Six years ago, Stanford Ph.D. Nicolas Kokkalis started a social experiment with a mobile app: users can "mine" by clicking a button once a day, without the need for professional mining machines, without electricity consumption, and at zero cost. Today, this experiment has come to an end - Pi Network announced that the Open Network will be officially launched at 16:00 Beijing time on February 20, 2025, when Pi coins will be able to interconnect with external systems for the first time.

Behind the data is a world of ice and fire:

- Fanatical supporters: 50 million users worldwide, over 18 million of whom have passed KYC verification, and Taiwanese merchants even use Pi coins to buy milk tea and pay rent;

- Skeptics: The mainnet has been delayed for 6 years, tokens cannot be traded, and the “IOU futures” listed on the exchange are accused of hype.

In this vortex of controversy, is Pi Network a technological revolution or a carefully designed capital game? This article will use the latest data and ecological progress to analyze its value logic and potential risks.

1. Positive Outlook: Three Breakthrough Points for Popularizing Blockchain

1. User base: the “traffic nuclear bomb” that crushes traditional public chains

Pi Network has created the largest user network in the history of encryption:

- 50 million registered users, far exceeding Ethereum (less than 5 million active users among 120 million addresses);

- 18 million KYC certified users, of which more than 8 million have been migrated to the closed mainnet, and it is expected that the migration target of 10 million will be exceeded before February 20;

- Dominance in Asia: South Korea’s 1.34 million users exceed Binance’s local user base, and Vietnam and the Philippines rank among the top three in terms of community activity in the world.

This user scale gives it the natural ability to incubate an ecosystem - even if only 1% of users participate in development, it can give birth to 50,000 DApps (currently there are only 80 mainnet applications).

2. Technology democratization: the integration of mobile mining and Stellar Consensus

Pi Network attempts to lower the threshold of blockchain with two major innovations:

- Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP): Abandoning Bitcoin’s energy-intensive PoW, it achieves energy-saving consensus through the Federated Byzantine Agreement (FBA), and mobile phones can participate in verification;

- Hierarchical role system: from "pioneer" (daily sign-in mining) to "node" (running a full node), users obtain tokens according to their contributions, forming a bottom-up governance structure.

This design allows blockchain to reach non-technical people for the first time - housewives, students, and retired elderly people can all participate, breaking the industry barrier of "geeks only".

3. Real-world applications: from Taiwanese milk tea shops to cross-border payments

Although the main network is not open, Pi Network has explored unique offline scenarios:

- Taiwan business district experiment: More than 200 merchants accept Pi coins for payment, from catering to real estate rentals, 1 Pi ≈ 25-30 New Taiwan dollars (about 0.8-1 US dollars);

- Cross-border remittance test: Filipino workers transfer money to their hometown through Pi wallet, and the handling fee is only 1/10 of that of traditional banks;

- Developer incentives: 80 mainnet applications cover education, medical care, and logistics. For example, "Pi Health" uses anonymous medical data to train AI diagnostic models.

If open networks run smoothly, these scenarios could be upgraded from edge experiments to global inclusive financial infrastructure.

2. Negative controversy: trust deficit and valuation bubble

1. Six years of default history: a crisis of trust when the wolf came

Pi Network’s mainnet schedule is a textbook case of procrastination.

Pi Network was launched in 2019, initially supporting smartphone-based cryptocurrency mining, and has gone through several stages, including Testnet, Node Program, and Closed Mainnet. Currently, the project is in the transition phase to an open network, with a mainnet migration expected in early 2025.

• March 14, 2019: Official Launch - Pi Network officially launches on Pi Day (March 14), named after the mathematical constant π (3.14). The initial version of the mobile app allows users (called "Pioneers") to mine Pi cryptocurrency directly from their smartphones.

• March 14, 2020: Testnet Phase Launched - On the first anniversary of Pi Network, the project entered the Testnet phase, marking an important step towards decentralization. This phase supports the deployment of globally distributed nodes, enabling community developers to test blockchains and create applications using Test-Pi.

• End of 2020: Node Program Introduction - Pi Network launched the Node Program, allowing users to run network nodes on their personal computers. This move enhances Pioneers' contribution to network security and transaction verification, and promotes decentralized development.

• December 2021: Closed Mainnet Launch - Pi Network enters the closed mainnet phase, where the mainnet is officially live but still behind a firewall to block external connections. During this period, users can complete KYC (identity verification) and migrate Pi to the live mainnet, while the community builds applications and utilities within the closed network.

• October 2023: Roadmap Released - The Pi Core Team publishes a milestone-based roadmap detailing past achievements, current projects, and future plans. This roadmap increases transparency and outlines key steps towards an open mainnet.

• December 2024: Open Network Update - The Pi Network team announced that the launch of the open mainnet, originally scheduled for the end of 2024, will be postponed to the first quarter of 2025. This decision is intended to allow more users to complete KYC certification and migrate their tokens to the mainnet to ensure a more inclusive and secure ecosystem.

• January 2025: Mainnet Migration Progress - As of January 2025, Pi Network has more than 18 million users who have completed KYC certification, of which more than 8 million users have migrated their tokens to the mainnet. The team extended the grace period for KYC and mainnet migration to January 31 to further support the transition.

Although the team attributed the delay to KYC review and ecosystem construction, the community questioned whether it was deliberately delayed to maintain token scarcity.

2. Doubts about the 100 billion valuation: a fatal trap after complete dilution

Based on the maximum supply of 100 billion, if Pi coin reaches $1, its fully diluted valuation (FDV) will be as high as $100 billion, which is more than one-third of Ethereum's current market value ($315 billion). But this faces two major paradoxes:

- Circulation black hole: Currently, only 2 billion Pi has been migrated to the main network, and the remaining 98 billion need to be gradually released through mining. If the team controls the unlocking rhythm, it may trigger a panic of selling pressure;

- Insufficient application scenarios: Most of the existing 80 DApps are tool applications, lacking value capture scenarios such as DeFi and NFT, and the ecosystem's hematopoietic capacity is questionable.

3. Regulation and Privacy: The Double-edged Sword of Compliance

Pi Network’s compliance strategy hides risks:

- Excessive KYC collection: users are required to submit their ID card, facial recognition, and proof of residence, which far exceeds the requirements of regular projects and poses a risk of data leakage;

- Risk of regulatory crackdown: If the SEC determines that Pi coin is a security (similar to the XRP lawsuit), its U.S. ecosystem may collapse instantly.

3. Open network launch: four key verification indicators

February 20, 2025 is not only a technical milestone, but also a touchstone of Pi Network’s value. The following four indicators will determine its success or failure:

1. Exchange liquidity test

- Real trading volume: If mainstream exchanges such as HTX and Binance open Pi coin spot trading, it is necessary to observe whether there will be a "collapse upon launch";

- Price anchoring: There is a huge difference between the current Taiwan P2P price (about US$1) and the IOU futures price (US$48.3), and the direction of price difference convergence indicates market confidence.

2. Degree of node decentralization

- Distribution of verification nodes: If the top 10 nodes control more than 50% of the computing power, it will go against the original intention of “civilian blockchain”;

- Anti-censorship capabilities: Can open networks withstand government-level firewall blockades, especially in sensitive regions such as Southeast Asia.

3. Developer migration

- DApp explosion speed: Can the number of main network applications exceed 500 in the next three months, and will at least one phenomenal application emerge?

- Cross-chain interoperability: The progress of asset bridging with Ethereum and Solana will determine whether it can be integrated into the mainstream ecosystem.

4. Token economic model

- Inflation control: whether the mining release speed will lead to hyperinflation, refer to the market value collapse of Helium due to over-issuance of tokens;

- Burning mechanism: The proportion of in-application transaction fees destroyed determines whether Pi coin can enter a deflationary cycle.

IV. Future projections: three possible scenarios

Scenario 1: Utopia comes true (30% probability)

- Key assumptions: zero failures on the mainnet, average daily trading volume of exchanges exceeding US$1 billion, and the emergence of DApps with millions of users;

- Price prediction: Pi coin stabilizes at $5, FDV reaches $500 billion, ranking among the top five in crypto market value;

- Social impact: Become the inclusive financial infrastructure in developing countries and shake the hegemony of SWIFT.

Scenario 2: Moderate growth (50% probability)

- Key assumptions: technology is stable but application is mediocre, and annual inflation rate is controlled within 15%;

- Price prediction: Pi coin will fluctuate between 0.5-2 USD, and its market value will be comparable to Dogecoin (about 30 billion USD);

- Social impact: Maintaining regional payment tool status, similar to Vietnam’s MoMo e-wallet.

Scenario three: Bubble burst (probability 20%)

- Key assumptions: mainnet downtime, regulatory crackdown, team selling tokens;

- Price prediction: Pi coin plummeted to below $0.1, and the community launched a large-scale rights protection campaign;

- Social impact: triggering a global crisis of confidence in the “zero-cost mining” model.

5. Conclusion: A social experiment on blockchain belief

The essence of Pi Network is a social collaboration experiment - it attracts a large number of users with minimalist interactions, builds community consensus with delayed gratification, and challenges elitism with civilian narratives. Its success or failure is not only related to the token price, but also will verify two ultimate propositions:

1. Does blockchain need a technical threshold? If 50 million novice users can create a prosperous ecosystem, large-scale adoption of Web3 will not be far away;

2. Does value have to come from scarcity? If the zero-cost mining of Pi coins gains market recognition, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative may be challenged.

Personal opinion:

The launch of Pi Network's open network is the most suspenseful crypto event in 2025. Its huge user base and real-world application scenarios have disruptive potential, but the six-year history of delays and valuation bubbles are like the sword of Damocles. In the short term, price fluctuations may occur after the mainnet is launched due to the release of liquidity; in the long term, its fate depends on whether it can evolve from a "social fission artifact" to a "value creation engine." If the team can restrain greed and focus on the ecosystem, Pi coin may really become the "civilian currency" in the crypto world; if the mistakes of the Ponzi scheme are repeated, this experiment will become the most expensive lesson in the history of blockchain.