Bitcoin witnessed 47K BTC leaving the exchange, but the price remained relatively stable on the chart.
Reserves on exchanges continue to decline across the market.
Recently, Bitcoin recorded a significant amount of 47,000 BTC leaving the exchange, sparking debate about whether this is a real supply shock or just normal internal trading. Historically, large outflows from exchanges are often associated with long-term accumulation, reducing the available BTC supply and potentially creating upward price momentum.
However, this move requires us to closely monitor on-chain data and price action.
Analysis of Bitcoin reserves on exchanges – Is it accumulation?
Analysis of net BTC flows shows that many BTC have left the exchange, with a prior spike of over 47,000 BTC, the largest move since 2022.
The significance of these BTC flows has led to discussions about a supply shock. However, this alone is not enough to confirm a supply shock.
Source: CryptoQuant
The Bitcoin Reserve chart on exchanges also shows a sustained decline in the amount of BTC held on exchanges, from over 3 million BTC in mid-2024 to around 2.45 million BTC in February 2025.
A sustained decline in exchange balances often means that investors are transferring BTC to personal wallets for long-term holding, reducing the available supply for immediate sale.
How is the price of Bitcoin reacting?
After the outflows from the exchange, the price of Bitcoin remained stable around 96,152 USD – A sign that the immediate market impact is negligible.
The Bollinger Bands indicate average volatility, with prices fixed between 94,935 USD and 107,638 USD. The 50-day moving average at 98,662 USD acts as a short-term resistance level.
Source: TradingView
Although large outflows from exchanges may indicate signs of accumulation, the lack of strong price response suggests that this move is not seen as a market-changing event, at least in the short term.
The futures market highlights speculation
The Glassnode Open Interest Futures chart shows a steady increase in speculative positions in January, with open interest near 60 billion USD.
Increased open interest and large outflows from exchanges often mean that traders are betting on a supply shock likely to occur. At the time of writing, open interest is reading around 44 billion USD.
Source: Glassnode
However, if the funding rate becomes too aggressive, it may indicate that the market is over-leveraged. This could make Bitcoin susceptible to adverse liquidation events.
Supply shock or normal move?
Although the outflows of 47K BTC seem consistent with the gradually declining reserves on exchanges, the immediate impact on the market has diminished.
Several factors, including the absence of strong price volatility and the potential for internal wallet reorganization, suggest that this is not an immediate supply shock. Instead, it may be part of a long-term accumulation trend.
However, if Bitcoin withdrawals and whale activity continue like this, a supply shortage may emerge in the coming months. This trend will gradually create upward price pressure on Bitcoin.