Market thinking and operational suggestions
1) The market is relatively uncertain because of the competition between long and short forces. On the one hand, there are funds that miss out on opportunities and will buy if the market falls. On the other hand, many people hold positions and wait for the good news of ETFs on January 10. Third, the market has risen a lot and there are a lot of profit-taking. Therefore, multiple factors may lead to wide fluctuations in the market.
2) It is recommended to buy at this position and hold the position for a long time, so be cautious, unless it is still at a very low position. The main reason is that most of the altcoins have already risen a lot. In addition, there is a risk of adjustment in BTC, so it is easy to be stuck at a high position. However, many altcoins may still rise, so a feasible strategy is to buy in batches, buy a part of the position now
3) Due to the anchoring effect, the ceiling of the coin price has been opened. The market is also in the fomo period, and funds are surging. Actively embrace hot spots, this kind of increase is fast and large. Of course, pay attention to the risks, it is easy to cut in half. It is recommended to use mini warehouses, gambling high
After a period of time, the personal money-making effect of MEME and hot spots will decrease. Here I use the personal money-making effect. In other words, the market will still frequently see projects that soar 10 times or even dozens of times in one day. For everyone, the money-making effect will begin to decrease (of course, you can still make a lot of money)
Therefore, first, you need to be aware of the circle of information dissemination you are in, and second, look at the quality and circulating market value of the project itself.
-How should retail investors seize the bull market in the next two years?
According to the Merrill Lynch clock, we (based on the old US economy) are about to enter recession from stagflation. The performance of the financial market at this stage is the first recovery of risky assets under the expectation of interest rate cuts. This is one of the core factors that triggered the current rise of our crypto market and Nasdaq index.
Looking back at the historical data of Merrill Lynch's clock cycle since the 21st century, the financial market is prone to black swan crises between the confirmation of a recession and the official rate cut. It is this industry consensus that has caused a large number of institutions to miss out on this round of bull market since October.
However, although the black swan that is likely to occur in 24 years will clear out many people's contract accounts and cause large red numbers in our investment portfolio PnL, it will not affect the arrival and development of the two-year long-term bull market.
Therefore, at the end of 23 years, we need to plan how we will invest, manage finances and trade in the next two years of the bull market.
1. Steadily expand your personal balance sheet in a Web3 Native way
Looking back at the rapidly rising tycoons SBF, Dokwon, and Suzhu in the last bull market, one of their main tricks was to expand their balance sheets through DeFi lending platforms.
For example, stake ETH in AAVE, then use the staked ETH as collateral, withdraw ETH at a high rate (80%), and then invest the ETH into new narrative assets with potential Alpha returns.
The advantage of doing this is that you can obtain the Beta benefits of ETH and capture the Alpha benefits of new narrative assets.
The disadvantage of doing this is that it places extremely high demands on portfolio allocation and fund management.
2. Reduce the frequency of transactions, be patient, and hold your portfolio for a long time
Last week, I used the backtrader library to conduct a comprehensive backtest of the trend strategy, regression strategy, and long-term holding strategy of BTC, DOT, and Doge in the last bull market. As a result, the long-term holding strategy is far ahead of the trend strategy and regression strategy.
In this bull market, I think the same result will happen.
After building your investment portfolio according to the above method, you should watch more and act less, and learn to buy when no one is interested and sell when everyone is talking.
3. Yesterday, I talked to fans in the communication group and found that everyone is not optimistic about ETH. Some people even think that it will be replaced by SOL. At the same time, they also think that the return of ETH is not high.
I just want to say that ETH will always be the second dragon, and sooner or later there will be a big positive line to prove itself. We can't continue to be short on Ethereum when it is weak.
Cancun upgrade will become the super narrative mainline in 24 years, now is the historical time to buy ETH
This is consistent with what Xiaohei and I have learned. The Cancun upgrade will allow the market to refocus on Ethereum and its ecological projects. ETH will continue to rise amid the hype of the Cancun upgrade, and the bull market will exceed 10,000 within the year.
Today's sharing ends here. Thank you very much for taking the time to read this article in your busy schedule. I hope the article is helpful to you. You can follow me and leave me comments to communicate with me.
