Sharing some of my personal thoughts, also to record my reflections in the current environment.

The biggest and hottest news in the crypto world these days must be the meme coin launched by the U.S. president based on the Solana chain, which has brought tremendous wealth benefits and also led to a surge in Solana. In the years I've been in the crypto space, almost every wave has similar news, new concepts, or new coins, which have also brought enormous wealth benefits, attracting more new funds and newcomers to this circle. Personally, I have the largest holding position in spot ETH since this round of market movement. As the market started, the ETH to BTC exchange rate has been continuously hitting new lows, and the voices in the crypto space looking bearish on ETH are growing stronger. Although ETH ETF funds have been flowing in continuously in recent days, the balance of ETH on exchanges shows a slight increase, indicating that short-term selling is greater than buying, with sell-offs entering exchanges. The bearish sentiment in the short term is very likely to continue strengthening and may last for a while (the probability of 1-3 months is extremely low), which will also lead some ETH holders to accelerate their selling. From the voices in the crypto space over the past couple of days, the sellers include a significant proportion of long-term holders, and long-term bulls are also selling due to the weakness of ETH compared to other coins or the continued sideways stagnation. In the past two days, there has been a noticeable siphoning effect of SOL compared to ETH.

Personally, I believe that this is actually some key indicators not far from the start of the ETH market. Extremes must reverse; as more and more people become bearish and sell, it also means that the number of sellers is continuously decreasing. Selling at this price point also means buying from your counterpart, and buying during a downward trend or volatile market inherently raises the cost basis. Those who do not sell in this price range are likely to continue holding. In investing, the biggest difference between true recognition and false recognition is that during a downward trend, as long as the underlying asset does not undergo a significant deterioration (or does not change the essence), you still dare to hold or increase your position against the trend. When the market reverses and prices rise (the current sell-off will all be supported by future price increases), it will inevitably mean that you will gain huge profits. At the same time, I personally believe that the probability of a market start leading to the exit of blockchain 2.0 is extremely low; let's wait and see.