The CPI (Consumer Price Index) of the United States has just been announced:
Actual: 2.9%
Forecast: 2.9%
Previous: 2.7%
Based on this information, I will adjust the analysis as follows:
CPI DECEMBER 2024: INFLATION INCREASES AS EXPECTED, FED EXPECTED TO KEEP INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED
CPI RESULTS
Actual: 2.9%
Forecast: 2.9%
Previous: 2.7%
Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has increased as the market expected to 2.9% compared to the same period last year. This is a slight increase from the previous month (2.7%), but still within acceptable limits.
MAIN IMPACT
Inflation remains above the FED's target (2%)
Although the index increased as predicted, the fact that the CPI is still above the FED's 2% target indicates that price control pressures still exist.
Core CPI cools down
The Core CPI (excluding food and energy) slightly decreased from 3.3% to 3.2%, indicating a gradual stabilization trend of core factors.
HOW DOES THE MARKET REACT?
Financial market:
With CPI data meeting expectations, the financial market reacted steadily, with no major fluctuations.
This is "neutral" news, as inflation did not exceed predictions, easing the pressure for interest rate hikes from the FED.
USD (DXY):
The DXY index temporarily adjusted slightly, continuing a downward trend by 1 point after yesterday's positive PPI data.
FED policy expectations:
According to the FED WatchTool, there is a 98% chance the FED will keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting.
LONG-TERM VISION
The FED may keep interest rates unchanged: If indicators such as CPI, PCE, and PPI remain stable, it is likely that the FED will not need to increase interest rates further in 2025.
Actual: 2.9%
Forecast: 2.9%
Previous: 2.7%
Based on this information, I will adjust the analysis as follows:
CPI DECEMBER 2024: INFLATION INCREASES AS EXPECTED, FED EXPECTED TO KEEP INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED
CPI RESULTS
Actual: 2.9%
Forecast: 2.9%
Previous: 2.7%
Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has increased as the market expected to 2.9% compared to the same period last year. This is a slight increase from the previous month (2.7%), but still within acceptable limits.
MAIN IMPACT
Inflation remains above the FED's target (2%)
Although the index increased as predicted, the fact that the CPI is still above the FED's 2% target indicates that price control pressures still exist.
Core CPI cools down
The Core CPI (excluding food and energy) slightly decreased from 3.3% to 3.2%, indicating a gradual stabilization trend of core factors.
HOW DOES THE MARKET REACT?
Financial market:
With CPI data meeting expectations, the financial market reacted steadily, with no major fluctuations.
This is "neutral" news, as inflation did not exceed predictions, easing the pressure for interest rate hikes from the FED.
USD (DXY):
The DXY index temporarily adjusted slightly, continuing a downward trend by 1 point after yesterday's positive PPI data.
FED policy expectations:
According to the FED WatchTool, there is a 98% chance the FED will keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting.
LONG-TERM VISION
The FED may keep interest rates unchanged: If indicators such as CPI, PCE, and PPI remain stable, it is likely that the FED will not need to increase interest rates further in 2025.
