Recently, the market has fallen by about 10%, and other altcoins are also performing poorly. The market fell, and then various negative news came out.

I have summarized this for you.

Message 1: The U.S. Department of Justice has approved the release of approximately 69,000 Bitcoins previously confiscated from Silk Road, valued at $6.5 billion.

My view: These are just the trading volumes from the market in less than 10 days, and they won’t have much impact. Previously, there were news reports about the German government selling coins, and our country selling coins, etc. In fact, people are selling coins every day, and there are people buying coins every day as well. There might be a slight impact, but it won’t affect the entire bull market; Bitcoin's size is too large, and a mere $6.5 billion is just a small ripple. The ripples it creates will quickly be smoothed out.

Message 2: Non-farm payroll data shows an increase in employment, strong economic data, and the Federal Reserve indicates it will not cut interest rates or will reduce the extent of rate cuts. For example, if the rate cut was originally 75 basis points and is reduced to 50 basis points, the market reacts.

My view: Macroeconomic data is very difficult to predict, and the Federal Reserve does not like people to predict accurately, allowing you to ambush early and make a profit. Therefore, decisions on rate cuts or hikes will not be transparent. In fact, the Federal Reserve will definitely cut rates; they have raised rates for too long and must pay high interest, which is hard to maintain. So right now, they are just suppressing the spring to ensure the safety of Trump’s presidency. When the time comes to sell off assets, everyone will be dumbfounded, wondering how the price can rise when it was said there would be no hikes.

Message 3: The Russian government has begun to sell the Bitcoins confiscated from hackers, totaling a little over 1,000.

My view: No impact at all. With over 1,000 Bitcoins, it’s unlikely that you could even push the price down by 0.3% wherever you choose to sell; you can check the trading volume to see.

Message 4: The major fire in Los Angeles has caused a crisis in the United States, which will then impact the stock market significantly, and the cryptocurrency market will also decline.

My view: They will understand the value of virtual assets more, while physical assets will be eroded by time and demand. Houses, antiques, paintings, and collectibles will all be eroded by the power of time and will eventually dissipate. The consensus value of these assets will gradually decrease, which is an unchangeable historical process. Each generation has its own way of playing, and each generation has its own market. So these things will be eliminated. Without consensus, as long as young people don’t participate because they can’t afford it, their value will immediately drop. Just like houses; if you don’t buy and don’t take over, then the value of the houses owned by those who hoarded properties will shrink immediately. Because of their lack of participation, the wealth gap with these people will gradually shorten. This path is proven, so many people will do this. In this major fire, there are only people with Bitcoin and those without it. People with Bitcoin will quickly recover their losses from lost houses, while those without Bitcoin will truly lose everything. Then Bitcoin will receive further promotion.

Message 5: Technical indicators are performing poorly, Bitcoin has fallen below the 60-day moving average, and a large bearish candlestick indicates strong selling pressure. This reflexivity in the market further contributes to the decline in coin prices.

My view: Technical indicators are lagging indicators; some are accurate, some are not. This means they are not very useful; they can only be used as a reference. If they were always correct, people would have shorted the market long ago and become rich. In reality, very few people become wealthy long-term by relying on technical indicators. The number of such people is very small and not replicable.

Message 6: It is said that Trump is going to be imprisoned, and then a series of Trump’s policies will become ineffective. Without Trump’s support, Bitcoin will immediately struggle.

My view: Bitcoin is no longer influenced by anyone; only those who ride on Bitcoin's traffic are. Additionally, Trump is unlikely to be imprisoned, and the news media's viewpoints are all about generating traffic; the greater the contrast, the more eye-catching it is, and the larger the traffic.

There is only one reason for the drop: someone made a profit, and some people are selling coins to improve their lives. Then it fell. Because it had risen too much before. This is all normal. Some may not sell at $100,000, but they might sell at $200,000, and if they don’t sell at $200,000, they might sell at $300,000. There will always be people making money who will exit the market, so the market will continue to exchange hands, and they might buy back again during a bear market. Only when these people sell can someone else pick up at $100,000 and push it to $200,000; if they don’t sell, the market can’t rise. So there will be fluctuations of ups and downs, but the trend of the market is actually upward. I blindly guess that the Bitcoin return rate in 25 years will be 50%-150%. It will become the best performing asset globally in 25 years.

I hope that at the end of this bull market, you all make a fortune.

I have finished writing. Keep going! I am a cryptocurrency masseur, an old player mainly focused on arbitrage and accumulating coins in the crypto space.