First, the conclusion: The upcoming non-farm payroll data to be announced on Friday may be higher than expected.
The non-farm payroll data on Friday is crucial. Since everyone knows that the small non-farm and large non-farm data are correlated, let's review the past year to see how the correlation between the two has been.
I have gathered records of 11 instances of small and large non-farm data in 2024 and made a simple chart:
In the recent 11 comparisons of small and large non-farm data, it was found that 5 times the results of both were consistent (both were announced as the same high or low as expected) while 6 times the results were opposite. Among these, 5 times the comparison showed that the small non-farm data was below expectations (bullish), while the large non-farm data was above expectations (bearish). Based on past data comparisons: the small non-farm data announced this time (on January 8) is below the expected data, while the large non-farm data on Friday is likely to be announced as higher than the expected data!
The non-farm payroll data on Friday is crucial. Since everyone knows that the small non-farm and large non-farm data are correlated, let's review the past year to see how the correlation between the two has been.
I have gathered records of 11 instances of small and large non-farm data in 2024 and made a simple chart:
In the recent 11 comparisons of small and large non-farm data, it was found that 5 times the results of both were consistent (both were announced as the same high or low as expected) while 6 times the results were opposite. Among these, 5 times the comparison showed that the small non-farm data was below expectations (bullish), while the large non-farm data was above expectations (bearish). Based on past data comparisons: the small non-farm data announced this time (on January 8) is below the expected data, while the large non-farm data on Friday is likely to be announced as higher than the expected data!
