1. Project Progress
(1) Ethereum Related
Matrixport analysis indicates that Ethereum faces severe challenges in 2025. Since the upgrade in April last year, gas fees have declined, ecological activity has been sluggish, trading volume is low, and there is significant pressure from competitors like Solana and Sui. After the listing of the Ethereum spot ETF, capital inflow has not met expectations, with less appeal in traditional financial markets, lacking 'compelling narratives' and 'clear application scenarios.'
(2) Solana Related
Solana's largest DEX Jupiter collaborates with the TON Foundation, with Jupiter creating a cross-chain aggregator for TON to enhance liquidity and build an integrated cross-chain exchange platform. Both parties are also promoting a DeFi competition, with winners receiving consulting and resource support. Previously, the DeFi development on the TON chain couldn't keep up with the price increase and user growth; this collaboration aims to unlock inter-chain trading opportunities and promote the development of the TON DeFi ecosystem.
2. Industry Regulation
(1) U.S. Policy
The IRS has announced temporary relief measures effective from January 1 to December 31, 2025, allowing users of centralized exchanges (CEX) to adopt a flexible asset accounting method, exempting them from strict FIFO tax obligations. They can determine the value of cryptocurrency sales using their own records or tax software, but this measure is temporary. At the same time, the IRS has narrowed the definition of 'broker,' clarifying reporting requirements for various related parties. Its regulations on cryptocurrency tax reporting have sparked controversy, with three cryptocurrency industry groups suing the IRS over the requirement for DeFi operators to report customer information.
3. Market Dynamics
(1) Bitcoin Market
Bitcoin's price has dropped 11% in the past two weeks, with its correlation to the Nasdaq index reaching the highest level since September last year, and the recent decline has been influenced by global stock market fluctuations. After the December FOMC meeting, the market expects a reduction in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, coupled with officials considering inflation pressures that may arise if Trump is re-elected, leading to capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. MicroStrategy has moderated its Bitcoin purchases, and trading volume has declined during the Christmas holiday, resulting in a significant drop in MicroStrategy's stock price. Currently, Bitcoin is quoted at $93,442.15, with a slight increase of 0.8% in the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin supporters in Switzerland proposed establishing a Bitcoin reserve to be included in the Swiss constitution, needing to collect 100,000 valid signatures by June 30, 2026. This follows a failed attempt in October 2021 to reach the target. If successful, the Swiss National Bank will increase its currency reserves to include Bitcoin alongside gold. Supporters believe this will help protect Switzerland's sovereignty and neutrality, highlighting potential financial benefits, although the Swiss National Bank has previously taken a cautious stance on Bitcoin.
(2) Other Cryptocurrency Markets
Elon Musk changed his Twitter account name to Kekius Maximus, changed his profile picture to the Pepe frog image, and reposted related images, sparking community attention. This led to a surge in meme coins related to Pepe and Kekius Maximus, such as KEKIUS on Ethereum, with a market value reaching $136 million and a 24-hour increase of over 12 times, and KM on Solana with a market value of $21 million. A wallet address spent less than $2,000 to purchase KEKIUS 15 days ago; after Musk's shoutout, the holding value increased to $1.53 million, yielding over 780 times profit, but meme coins are highly volatile and carry potential risks.
(3) NFT Market
No significant updates related to the NFT market have been mentioned.
4. Predictions and Analysis
(1) Price Trend Predictions
(Financial Times) predicts that Bitcoin prices are expected to break through $200,000, as Trump's team embraces cryptocurrency, the regulatory environment is friendly, and the SEC is expected to end its aggressive litigation against cryptocurrency companies and establish clear rules, attracting institutional funds and driving up Bitcoin prices.
(2) Market Trend Analysis
According to Coinglass data, in the past 12 years (2013 - 2024), Bitcoin recorded 6 instances of price increases in January, with the largest increases being 44.05% in 2013, 39.63% in 2023, and 29.95% in 2020; there were also 6 instances of price declines, with the largest declines being -33.05% in 2015, -25.41% in 2018, and -14.83% in 2016, with an overall average of 3.13%. If we factor in the inauguration dates of new U.S. presidents (2021, 2017, 2014), all years showed increases except for a slight decline in 2017. The Bitcoin market will be worth watching after Trump takes office on January 20, 2025, but with the current decline in U.S. stocks, Bitcoin may be affected, and investors should be cautious of short-term volatility risks.
5. Individual and Company Dynamics
(1) Comments and Actions by Individuals
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin donated 50 ETH (approximately $170,000) to support the legal defense of Tornado Cash developers Roman Storm and Alexey Pertsev. He had previously donated 100 ETH to support Alexey Pertsev's defense. Tornado Cash, as a decentralized mixing platform, has been a regulatory target since 2022. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned its smart contracts, Dutch authorities arrested and prosecuted the developers, and U.S. prosecutors charged two other developers. This incident has sparked a strong backlash in the crypto community, and the U.S. Treasury's decisions face legal challenges, with related lawsuits ongoing.
(2) Company Business Progress
No significant updates on other companies' business developments have been mentioned.
6. Stablecoin Dynamics
(1) Introduction to Stablecoin Protocols
Introduced two stablecoin protocols similar to Ethena's expiration arbitrage strategy: USDX and Resolv. USDX received $45 million in funding on November 29, with a valuation of $275 million. It employs a multi-currency arbitrage strategy and has partnerships with BNB Chain and ListaDAO. Users can exchange USDT or USDC for USDX through the official website to earn points, with a TVL of $530 million; however, the team's credibility is questionable, and information about the operating tokens and partner exchanges is not transparent. The Resolv team hails from Russia and has received funding from Delphi Digital, launching the stablecoin USR, backed by over $1.1 million in asset reserves, with RLP tokens as a guarantee. It is expected to launch on HyperEVM and will introduce the governance token RESOLV in the first quarter TGE, allowing users to earn points through various methods, with a TVL of $350 million. The fourth phase of the points program has only 4 days remaining, with multiple ways to earn points bonuses.