1. Cryptocurrency market dynamics
(1) Bitcoin-related
In December, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a cumulative net inflow of 4.586 billion USD, with a net inflow of 5.33 million USD yesterday. The top three net inflows in 2024 were IBIT (37.2 billion USD), FBTC (about 11.7 billion USD), and ARKB (2.5 billion USD).
BTC breaks through 94,100 USD, currently reported at 94,105.86 USD, with a 24-hour increase of 1.52%.
536 BTC transferred from an unknown wallet to Binance, worth over 50 million USD.
On December 31, ten US Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 2,736 BTC (259.51 million USD), with Fidelity experiencing an outflow of 1,638 BTC (155.34 million USD), currently holding 201,163 BTC.
(2) Ethereum-related
Yesterday, FETH saw a net inflow of 31.8 million USD, ETHE saw a net outflow of 5.6 million USD, and ETH saw a net inflow of 9.8 million USD.
In December, Ethereum chain NFT sales exceeded 480 million USD, and Bitcoin chain NFT sales exceeded 170 million USD.
A smart money sold 22,919 ETH one hour ago, making a profit of 1.1 million USD.
On December 31, nine Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of 7,360 ETH (25.01 million USD), with Fidelity experiencing an outflow of 6,000 ETH (20.39 million USD), currently holding 462,250 ETH.
(3) Other cryptocurrencies
PEPE's market cap surpasses HYPE and UNI, rising to 24th place in the cryptocurrency market cap rankings, with a 13.9% increase in the past 24 hours, currently reported at 0.00002038 USD, with a market cap exceeding 8.6 billion USD.
Three whales spent 15 million USD to accumulate LDO, BNB, POPCAT, RAY, and GRASS.
In December, stablecoins on the Solana chain grew by approximately 1 billion USD, primarily driven by USDC expansion, currently having about 5 billion USD in total locked value, of which nearly 4 billion USD is USDC and about 1 billion USD is USDT.
(4) NFT market
Magic Eden co-founder releases annual review, stating that token trading accounts for 30% of total revenue, becoming a leading NFT market and mint terminal, with the highest market share in Ordinals and Runes.
In December, Ethereum chain NFT sales exceeded 480 million USD, with a transaction volume of 696,811, approximately 98,834 unique buyer addresses and around 89,048 unique seller addresses; Bitcoin chain NFT sales exceeded 170 million USD, with a transaction volume of 292,376, approximately 70,642 unique buyer addresses and around 68,875 unique seller addresses.
(5) DeFi sector
The decentralized GPU network Inferix completed 2.6 million USD in funding, led by DePIN X Capital, with participation from HashKey Capital, FBG Capital, Waterdrip Capital, and IoTeX. The SuperNode GPU Stake mining testnet Testnet 1 is scheduled to launch in January this year.
ether.fi announced the launch of the Berachain incentivized deposit vault, supporting deposits of various assets, with deposits locked for 90 days after the launch of the Berachain mainnet.
(6) Cryptocurrency companies and platforms
VanEck's head of digital asset research stated that VanEck holds 9% of its own Bitcoin ETF circulating shares, with more shares held in cold storage.
Robinhood hinted that it will offer cryptocurrency rewards for eligible users, requiring an active Robinhood Crypto account, the latest version of the app, and an established crypto wallet. Rewards will be notified within a week after the countdown ends and will expire 30 days later. Recipients must keep the reward value in their account for one year; specifics are undisclosed but may involve Bitcoin or other digital assets.
Insiders say FalconX is negotiating to acquire crypto derivatives startup Arbelos, with the deal to be financed through cash and a combination of FalconX stock, expected to be announced in the coming days, valuation impact remains unclear.
Floki announced a partnership with Kings World Cup Nations to showcase the brand in various forms during the event in Italy from January 1 to 12, 2025.
(7) Cryptocurrency predictions and analysis
Messari released six major predictions for 2025, including the end of Hyperliquid's strong performance, VIRTUAL FDV surpassing TAO FDV, Pudgy Penguins surpassing CryptoPunks to become the hottest PFP series, Peaq surpassing all L2, ETH outperforming SOL, and the AI Agent framework peaking in Q1 2025 and not recovering.
K33 Research reported that Bitcoin is unaffected by the stock market decline, with the 30-day Nasdaq correlation climbing above 0.50. Although global stock indices are down, Bitcoin remains above 95,000 USD due to the market digesting the Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts in 2025.
The cryptocurrency industry in 2025 will see several key trends, such as the explosion of RWA tokenization, widespread adoption of AI-based identity verification, increased attention to DePIN, and continued development of Bitcoin monetization.
Reports show that venture capital in the cryptocurrency industry will grow to 13.6 billion USD in 2024, expected to reach 18 billion USD in 2025.
2. Traditional financial market dynamics
(1) Foreign exchange market
The offshore RMB against the USD fell 227 points from Monday's New York close, reported at 7.3379, trading within the range of 7.3053 - 7.3695 during the day; the onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.2994, unchanged from Monday night, with a trading volume of 34.602 billion USD.
The US dollar index DXY rose to 108.55, the highest since November 2022, with an annual increase of nearly 8% in 2024, marking the best annual performance since 2015.
(2) Bond market
The yield on the US 10-year benchmark Treasury bond rose by 3.63 basis points, reported at 4.5690%, with a cumulative increase of 68.99 basis points in 2024, overall trading in the range of 3.5952% - 4.7351%; the two-year US Treasury yield remained flat, reported at 4.2416%, with a cumulative drop of about 8 basis points in 2024, trading in the range of 5.0352% - 3.5%.
On the last day of 2024, US Treasury futures closed mixed, with the yield curve steepening after the month-end index rebalancing at 1 PM New York time, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising nearly 5 basis points to 4.58%, briefly approaching 4.50% in early trading.
(3) Stock market
US stocks opened high and fell, with all three major indices closing down. The Nasdaq fell by 0.9%, with a cumulative increase of 28.64% in 2024; the S&P 500 fell by 0.43%, with a cumulative increase of 23.31% in 2024; the Dow fell by 0.07%, with a cumulative increase of 12.88% in 2024. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 recorded four consecutive days of decline, with the S&P 500 marking its longest year-end decline since 1966. Most large tech stocks fell, with Tesla down over 3%, having increased over 62% in 2024; Nvidia fell over 2%, having increased over 171% in 2024.
(4) Commodity market
Gold and silver rounded off 2024, with gold achieving the largest annual increase since 2010, briefly approaching 2,800 USD, with a yearly gain of 27%. Silver closed up 21%, reaching a ten-year high of 34.86 USD, currently hovering around 28.9 USD/ounce, with the gold-silver ratio increasing by 4.8% for the year.
The cryptocurrency market closed out 2024 with a total market cap peak nearing 4 trillion USD, Bitcoin price cumulatively increasing by 121%, and Ethereum increasing by 45.6% for the year.
3. Macroeconomics and policy
(1) Policy and regulation
The IRS has released temporary relief measures for cryptocurrency taxes, which will benefit CeFi exchange users in 2025, addressing concerns raised by the final version of Regulation 6045 for custodial brokers, which requires the use of first-in, first-out accounting methods for digital assets (other methods are optional), effective January 1, 2025.
(2) Macroeconomic data
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 88.8%, with an 11.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut; by March, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 47.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 47.7%, with a 5.3% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut.
The Federal Reserve's reverse repo mechanism attracted 473.5 billion USD inflow on the last day of 2024, the largest scale since early summer.
(3) Other macro dynamics
US polls show that most people expect political conflict and economic difficulties in the US in 2025.
4. Other news
Montenegro's Prime Minister Milojko Spajic stated that he welcomes entrepreneurs in legitimate cryptocurrency and AI sectors, with a zero-tolerance policy for fraud. He previously indicated that Do Kwon's extradition procedures to the US have been completed, stating that this extradition demonstrates a strong commitment to international justice and the rule of law.
Musk tweeted frog-themed posts at 1:50 AM and 5:00 AM Beijing time, with the 1:50 AM tweet saying, "Entering the hardcore leaderboard after multiple deaths, everything we possess in life will resonate in eternity! (with a frog emoji), crazy that this game has been released for a month, but no one in the hardcore version has reached level 100. Half of the leaderboard is dead. Now at level 85. I will take a break tonight and interact with humans," and the 5:00 AM tweet was "Brothers in Arms" with an image of Pepe resembling a Roman general.
Media reports that Venezuela's 'Aragua Train' gang members attempted to attack the US-Mexico border crossing in order to enter the US before Trump's inauguration. Texas law enforcement documents state that the gang members attacked the crossing point with knives, claiming they would attack border guards. Last week, 20 armed gang members attempted to cross, with the next attack expected on January 1, with El Paso seen as the gang's headquarters. A retired Homeland Security investigator indicated that the increased border crossing attempts are closely related to Trump's impending inauguration, predicting an escalation of border violence.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin urged Musk to 'cool it down', moderate 'the tone of discourse', stop using the 'social media banhammer' to close X accounts, and donated 50 ETH to support the legal defense fund for Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm, having previously donated 50 ETH to Tornado Cash co-founder Alexey Pertsev.
Over 24 million USDC transferred from FalconX to Coinbase Institutional; over 370 million USDT transferred from Bitfinex to Tether Treasury; USDC Treasury minted over 274 million USDC on the Ethereum chain.
Hong Kong-listed company Yuxing Technology announced that it has traded in the open market from July 25 to December 31, 2024, including purchasing approximately 78.2 units of Bitcoin (with an average price of 80,960 USD per unit, total cost of about 6.3 million USD), and selling approximately 6.3 million units of USDT (with an average price of 1 USD per unit, total value of about 6.3 million USD), selling USDT to convert it into Bitcoin purchases of equivalent value.
Analysis from Dow Jones Market Data shows that since November 2014, Bitcoin has a correlation of 0.21 with the S&P 500 index and 0.09 with gold, while the rolling correlation between gold and the S&P 500 index has been 0 since 1975.
The total wealth of the global top 500 billionaires in 2024 surpassed 10 trillion USD, with tech stocks led by Musk, Zuckerberg, and Huang Renxun driving the net worth increase of several tech giants, Musk's wealth reaching 442.1 billion USD, an increase of 213 billion USD since the beginning of the year, and his close relationship with Trump boosting the value of his companies.
AAA Web3 game Seraph announced the official establishment of its foundation, with TGE entering the countdown phase, aiming to promote innovative development in the Web3 gaming ecosystem.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) chief developer shared progress on the upcoming ecological token TREAT, which is the last official token in the Shiba Inu ecosystem, aiming to incentivize users to participate and support the 'Network State', expected to become a focal point of the roadmap in early 2025.
Paxos released its second USDG attestation report, stating that as of the end of November, the number of tokens held by the USDG contract on the Ethereum network increased to 29,386,864, an increase of 18,636,724 compared to the end of October. The fair value of the redeemed assets is at least equal to or greater than 29,467,869 USD, and the number of USDG tokens does not exceed the balance of redeemable assets. USDG is a compliant stablecoin launched by Paxos in partnership with DBS Bank, with DBS Bank responsible for managing the USD reserves.