【Macroscopic observation】
1. The U.S. non-seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate recorded 3.2% in October, a new low since July this year. The seasonally adjusted monthly CPI rate in the United States recorded 0% in October, the lowest since July 2022. The non-seasonally adjusted core CPI in the United States recorded an annual rate of 4% in October, the lowest since September 2021. The core CPI in the United States recorded a monthly rate of 0.2% in October, the lowest since July this year.
2. According to CME’s “Fed Watch”, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in December is 85.7%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 14.3%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by January next year is 73.3%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate hike of 25 basis points is 24.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate hike is 2.1%.
The first phase of the spot class, 27200 Bitcoin layout, is still profitable, the second phase, 1626ETH layout, is still profitable, and the third phase layout has started...
![]GM]62U{G(WE%}3C(S_B84D.jpg](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202311/461b21e433e8e7b4d90edb20dd8de029.jpg)
There are three stages in the bull market. Do you think ETH has entered the second stage of rebound?
Phase 1: Bitcoin is the only one that absorbs the blood and rises alone, and most of the altcoins cannot outperform Bitcoin.
Phase 2: ETH and blue-chip coins rise (LINK, SOL...)
Phase 3: Altcoins are in chaos
【BTC Market Analysis】
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has fallen below the upper channel level of 36200U and closed below the 10-day moving average, with the support and pressure conversion being successful.
Next, Bitcoin will most likely accelerate its decline to test the 34000U lifeline. Pay attention to the death cross pattern of the short-term moving average above the lifeline.
In the spot class, we have reminded to reduce positions last week. If we add back the reduced positions, please pay attention to the support between 32,000 and 34,000, and pay attention to the K-line combination pattern during this period.
【BTC phased target adjustment suggestions】
After starting at 27200, we adjusted the targets as follows according to the actual trend of Bitcoin: 32000-35000-48000 points respectively. It has now reached 35000 points and has also broken through 36000 points, reaching a maximum of 38000 points. Now it is a correction after the breakthrough, and the daily chart needs to adjust the repair indicators. Jiu Ge believes that the adjustment of the bullish trend is for a better upward attack.
Risk warning: It has currently fallen below the key support of 36,200. The daily MACD indicator shows a divergence confirmation and is still in the process of repair. The daily adjustment has not yet ended. Pay attention to possible entry opportunities at 34,000-32,000.
[Trend Analysis: BTC breaks through again after 4 years]
In the monthly chart, BTC also performed very well, with an increase of 28% last week, which is also a good performance in the past decade. So what is the price outlook for November? Will it continue to rise or fall back?
The monthly line of Bitcoin has penetrated three lines with one positive line, and the May-October line has formed a golden cross above the 30-month line. This is a positive trend of accelerating the rise. At the same time, the golden cross of MACD below the zero axis is also a manifestation of the bulls starting to exert their strength, and KDJ turns upward again.
Jiu Ge retrieved the price trend chart of Bitcoin on the monthly chart for the past ten years. In November 2015, the price of Bitcoin stood above the 30-month line, and Bitcoin has never fallen below the 30-month line since then. It has risen along the May line until the peak of 20,000 points in 2017. At that time, Bitcoin rose from 400 points to 20,000 points, which was a 50-fold increase.
In April 2019, Bitcoin also experienced the same phenomenon of crossing the 30-month moving average three times. After that, the price rose from 4,000 points to 69,000 points along the 30-month line in two years, an increase of 11 times.
After a lapse of 4 years, Bitcoin has once again seen a monthly chart of one yang penetrating three. Jiu Ge believes that Bitcoin is now in the early stages of a bull market, and it is the real early stages.
Although history will not repeat itself, it will definitely reappear, just with different versions, different characters, and different stories.
【ETH Market Analysis】
Since entering November, ETH has experienced a major breakthrough, and the weekly chart remains bullish.
On the daily chart, ETH follows the adjustment of Bitcoin and has now fallen below the integer mark of 2,000 points. At the same time, it closed below the 10-day moving average. The possible risk is that the short-term moving average forms a dead cross. Pay attention to the support situation between 1912 and 1880 of ETH's falling target and the opportunity for stabilization.
On the weekly chart, ETH has confirmed the formation of a golden triangle, which is a positive offensive signal. However, we need to pay attention to whether the 5-week line can obtain effective support. If the K-line pattern formed by this week's closing line and the previous closing line is a bearish pattern, the risk will be further increased. If the 5-week line can obtain effective support, when Bitcoin's adjustment is nearing the end, it is very likely to usher in a second outbreak.
[LINK Market Analysis] After breaking through the 500-day shock box, LINK showed a short-term adjustment trend, and the bulls continued to attack. From the trading plan of LINK on October 20, after breaking through the lifeline, it has been supported by the lifeline and started a new round of rising market.
Jiuge also constantly adjusted our trading plan according to the trend of LINK, from 7.6U to adding positions and adjusting target positions after the first and second targets were achieved, and now the yield is close to 100%. Breakthrough is a matter of time, the question is whether you can hold it, pay out the principal, and keep the profit until the crazy bull market period.
Figure 2: LINK trading plan tracking path.
Risks and Opportunities: The current closing price is below the 10-day moving average, and it is very likely to form a death cross of the short-term moving average on the daily chart. The strong support level below is 12.167U. Closely monitor the effectiveness of the support at this position and whether it stabilizes.
In the daily chart, after the MACD fast and slow lines crossed, a bar divergence was formed, which also needs further adjustment. We will not enter the market for the time being and pay attention to the stabilization of 12.1.
At the same time, we found from the low point of this time and the Fibonacci starting point of the previous bull market that the highest rebound to 23.6% encountered resistance and pulled back, which is a normal technical retracement.
[ORDI Market Analysis] On October 21, ORDI has broken above the lifeline. Our spot order number 202301021017 clearly indicates an entry price of 3.75-3.50U.
In the next period of time, ORDI began to rise violently, breaking through the neckline of 4.25U, which is our first target position. After breaking through there, it made a slight adjustment and took off again, and adjusted the target to 8.07 US dollars. This place is a chip-dense area. At this time, the profit has exceeded 100%, and it is reminded that the principal can be exited, and the remaining profits can be let fly for a while.
Binance has officially announced that it will list ORDI! This will further push up the price of ORDI and break the historical high of 17U to 21.4U. Fortunately, it is just a reminder for everyone to sell the principal and continue to hold the profit. The current view is even more so. Since it has broken the historical high, you must firmly hold ORDI. It is expected that this 3.75U bottom position will hardly be seen again in the next two years.
The only logic we use to stick to our entries and revised targets is to adhere to the trading system.
We don't need to delve into why the price rises or falls, we just need to follow the strong market trend.
Last week, the spot class reminded ORDI to cover its position at 18U. The lowest price fell back to 16.7U and the current price is 21.7U. Please hold on to it patiently.
[OP price trend analysis] Order number 202301021021 Jiu Ge clearly mentioned the opening point of OP. This position is the bottom position. If it breaks through 1.42U, the position will be increased. If it breaks through 1.83, the position can still be increased.
On the weekly chart, OP shows an upward trend line and the bottom is gradually rising. At the same time, the price fluctuates and consolidates repeatedly around 1.30, which can also be understood as a wash market.
Jiuge believes that the performance of OP weekly chart is very likely to repeat the previous trend chart from 0.7 to 3.2U. If the double bottom pattern breaks through the neckline, it will take off. OP has also been in a double bottom pattern since June 15, 23, and the upper big pressure level is also the neckline at 1.83U. Once OP is broken, it will usher in a larger increase.
On the daily chart, we were reminded yesterday that if you reduce your position at 1.80, you can consider taking it back at 1.65. The closing line was a doji, and the upper 1.82 has become an important pressure that OP needs to break through at the current stage. When the price really went down, it was found that the price of OP could not fall at all and the buying was sufficient. Under the current market conditions, it can perform like this, which means it is one of the strong currencies and deserves special attention.
Why did Brother Jiu choose to gradually increase his holdings after a breakthrough?
Because we only do the right things.
Instead of adding to your position every time the price falls back to get chips at a lower price?
If after we buy a coin, the price not only does not move in the direction we expected, but instead moves in the opposite direction of our expectations, it means that we are wrong. At this time, if the stop loss is triggered, we should exit the market instead of adding positions and increasing the risk.
Only when the price moves in the direction we expected, it means we are right. Then we can consider re-entering the market every time there is a breakthrough, until the trend goes bad and we leave the market completely.
Let the profits fly for a while, and don’t be so anxious to take profits and leave. If a trend emerges, the best strategy is to persist and hold on, rather than being anxious every day, fearing that the profits will fly away!
【Nine Brother’s Quotes】
1. K-line language is a result. Whether we know it or not, whether it is happening or will happen in the future, it will be reflected in the K-line language.
2. Rising is the best reason to rise, and falling is the best reason to fall.
The trend has come, don't think about the plunge or the reasons behind it, the K-line tells us everything. As time goes by and prices continue to rise, we will know the answer.
3. Once a trend is formed, it will not change easily. You just need to follow the trend, ignore all external news, focus on the K-line language, focus on the trading system, and everything else is interference.
Contract Class, Spot Class Registration Consultation WeChat/QQ Group Management
【Review of spot strategy】
ORDI entry 3.75 current maximum yield 537%
ETH rebounded, OP/ARB finally broke through, and OKB also started rotation. OKB continued to replenish positions after the rebound, and the target remained unchanged.
Partial performance review table in October
What is the next potential coin? Which coins will become 100 times more valuable this year? Join the spot class to receive it!
【Introduction to Academy No.7】
We focus on cryptocurrency trading and technical training. Through the combination of theory and practice, we enable the majority of cryptocurrency investors to understand the underlying logic of transactions in a simple and easy-to-understand way and establish and improve their own trading systems.
