The price of BTC has returned to $37,000, which has doubled compared to November last year; ORDI launched BN, which once exceeded $23, an increase of more than 3,000 times compared to the minting price in March.
In the crypto market, opportunities may have a window of several months waiting to be captured, but most are missed.
Reflecting on the reasons why I missed out on this period of time, it is not only due to the limitations of my personal cognition and technical thresholds, but also my personal risk-taking ability due to my aversion to losses.
1. Lack of action and courage to deeply understand new ways of playing.
The discussion of Bitcoin inscriptions began in early 2023, when the Ordinals protocol was brought up again. In early March, Domodata deployed Ordi on the Bitcoin chain, and soon the first BRC20 was minted.
Of course, I was not so sharp that I caught this hot spot and did not mint it. Later, after Unisat went online, I did not use the BTC wallet to mint BRC20.
To sum up, it is because of the insensitivity and unwillingness to learn new gameplay, and the assumption that inscription casting is too difficult.
Although there are step-by-step tutorials, I am reluctant to spend BTC on new IPOs as I feel the gas fee is unbearable, as it is only a few dollars.
After ORDI was minted, more and more BRC20s were launched. Currently, there are more than 40,000 BRC20 tokens on the chain. Except for the top ten memes, other BRC20s have not even been minted. Even if they are minted, there is a lack of marketing and no price fluctuations.
A friend of mine has minted dozens of brc20, but currently cannot see any profit. Maybe the timing is not right, or the coins have already returned to zero.
There are more opportunities at the top of any track. After Ordi was launched on BN, it became popular, more people participated, and the price continued to reach new highs. When it fell, someone would buy it up.
I also wrote about brc20 and BTC ecosystem NFT in May, but I just kept paying attention to it and did not invest in BTC to try it out because I was worried about the return to zero and did not want to invest the cost of trial and error.
But there is no output without input. If you invest $1 and it multiplies 10 or 100 times later, then it will matter to you. If you invest 0, then no matter how many times it multiplies later, it will have nothing to do with you.
Reflecting on the past is to change current behavior. For example, the market is still discussing BRC20 opportunities. Should we mint or buy some BRC20 now, such as ORDI or SATs, or ERC20 and ARC20?
Having said that, I still can't see the market clearly and don't know where the opportunities are, and every success is the result of accidental.
2. Lack of firm belief in fixed investment.
In November last year, the price of BTC fell to a two-year low, once falling to US$15,472. A year later, the increase has exceeded 137%. I started regular investment last year and also bought US$15,800 of BTC, but the amount was limited.
Because we don’t know the future trend, whether it will continue to rise or fall, we dare not increase our chips at a low point, so we have no chance to own more BTC at 15k.
I ended my fixed investment after 27k. I saw the price at 15k and always wanted to wait for it to drop before buying in, but the window of opportunity had closed.
Fortunately, there is a relatively long period of time between 15k and 27k, but the investment amount is very small and I dare not go all in.
If I had continued to implement the fixed investment strategy at 27k, I would have also achieved a 37% return at 37k. However, I lacked confidence in the market and did not absolutely execute the fixed investment. Until now, I could only seize a small number of opportunities, which is quite regrettable.
New and old investors have different opinions on the fixed investment method. For players with different risk and return preferences, the fixed investment returns are too low and it is too difficult to hold on.
Personally, I prefer a safe approach, not chasing highs or joining the crowd, but I don’t follow through with it firmly; if you are really optimistic about the future BTC reaching 69k or even higher, now is undoubtedly a low point and an opportunity, but why do you still lack the conviction to make regular investments?
There is only one scoop from the vast ocean. The crypto market fluctuates greatly. There are opportunities in every track, but everyone has limited energy and it is impossible to track every hot spot.
Improve your cognition and do the things at hand well, while finding ways to expand your boundaries, so that you can understand and plan new knowledge points in advance.
Things change over time. Maybe the next time will be your highlight moment, but the premise is that you don’t give up.
Of course, it is also possible to choose the wrong direction, lose opportunity costs, and stay where you are. This is the most regrettable thing and it is also an inevitable result on the road to success.
Everything depends on luck, but it also requires continuous efforts and attempts to take a step forward while being able to bear the consequences of going back to zero.
The above is just my personal opinion, not investment advice. I am Chu Xiaolian, and I am paying attention to the crypto market and web3.
