This week’s two narratives are preceded by range oscillations:

(If the pie goes sideways and the volatility is low, go to Lu Shanzhai)

Macroscopic view:

On the 14th of this week, the U.S. non-seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate in October (announced value > predicted value = positive for the US dollar), the Franklin Templeton spot ETF progress receipt on the 17th. U.S. GDP>CPI, interest rate cut expectations have been further realized in the risk market. The Federal Reserve's interest rate observer shows that the interest rate cut is ahead of schedule. By June 20, the probability of maintaining interest rates or cutting interest rates has reached more than 90%.

Technical aspect:

1. The usual volatility on weekends is not large. Yesterday, I mentioned that BTC should follow the idea of ​​harami and cooperate with the shock range. The intraday fluctuation is to fluctuate 200 points around the strength level near 3.69. The positions given by ETH since 2140 were all reached yesterday, and the spot price started to rise and sell in the later period. Pay attention to taking profit in the short-term contracts of NEAR AGLO HOOK the day before yesterday, and move the spot. The coins screened last night have been issued, and the coins will continue to be screened in the future.

2. The weekly closing is pretty good, and the line change is the beginning of the fluctuation. The structure remains unchanged and the trend remains unchanged. For the daily line, the bus range is the structural range of 3.63-3.75, and this range remains unchanged. There are already many harami lines on the daily line. The breakthrough of the harami lines and the kinetic energy are the direction. Before this, the trend was oscillatory.

The view remains unchanged that 3.4 is a large-level change position, and 3.18 is a support-resistance exchange position for a large structure. The upper target is 4 4.2 4.8 (the fomo position of 618). The spot market will appear based on these positions, and the position will be cleared after a large-scale decline.

Medium and long term: Pressure 4 4.2 Support 3.4 3.32

Intraday short-term: 3.85 3.75 support 3.63 3.54

3. ETH continues to look at the key support of 2000. The lower support is 1960 1920 1880 1850 and the pressure is 2090 2140.

How high will the price of SSV be in the bull market?

The problem of currency price prediction has many dimensions and methods, so it is easy to be inaccurate if there are too many rulers. But human beings are naturally unable to restrain the pursuit of certainty, so I also tried to predict the SSV currency price. I have previously predicted the currency price of SSV from a functional perspective, and now I will make another prediction for the currency price of SSV through market value comparison.

First, let’s determine the total circulation of SSV in the future.​

我们假设2025年6月会迎来牛市，那么那个时候的 SSV 大概多少流通量呢。 现阶段 SSV 的流通量为1100万枚。那么截止到2025年6月，项目方前阵子推出的总量100万枚的代币激励计划已经完成。因此不出意外的话，那个时候 SSV 的总流通量应该是1200万枚。

In the second step, we predict the total market value.

Here, I choose ETH as the reference. The first step here is to estimate the market value of ETH when the bull market arrives in June 2025. To be conservative, we assume that the price of $ETH in the next bull market will double from the last time, reaching $1 trillion.

To sum up, we can calculate that the price of SSV is roughly as shown in the table below. Many people may not be satisfied with this price, but it should be noted that this is a conservative estimate. It did not take into account the development of the SSV project itself and the influx of funds and the improvement of its own profitability brought about by the advancement of DVT technology.

普涨行情，皆大欢喜，高位的 $SOL 回调盘整下；这次涅槃之后，个人看来 $SOL 已经成为独一档的存在（任何接近其市值一倍差距的 L1，都可换成SOL）凝聚力，技术，生态，筹码，社区等全方位重塑升级，不变的还是内敛韧性十足的团队，当然这都是事后涨起来的措辞，事前是什么？——押注单链

扩容的对决，粗略分两类，天才向左：把区块拆分成小的并连起来；疯子向右：极致优化单一分片。

这就好比打牌，你出牌分层 L1，我出单链；你出模块化，我出单链，你出 Rollup/L2/L3，我还是出单链。背后实在是厌倦了跨来跨去人都跨没了，厌倦了没有可组合性，厌倦了开发的复杂性，搞了一堆复杂又花里胡哨的名字（谁TM能分清cUSDC，USDC.e，USDC.axl，USDC.wh，USDC.grv，USD，UST等等）

APT/SUI and other single chains? ——It takes time to develop secretly.

ETH's mainnet will be online in 2015, SOL will be online in 2020, APT will be online in 22 years, and SUI will be online in 23 years. "Under the premise of long-term competitiveness", the market value is directly proportional to time. You can't take Wei Xiao, which was only established in 2016. Let’s make a hard comparison with the market value of Tsla/BYD, which has been established for more than 20 years.

There is no doubt about the greatness of ETH, and it will continue to steadily explore technological evolution. One goes to the left, the other goes to the right, and everyone has a bright future.