one

The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 150,000 in October, the smallest increase since June, and the market expected 180,000. The total number of new jobs in August and September was 101,000 lower than before the revision; the monthly unemployment rate was 3.9%, the highest level since January 2022, and the market expected 3.8%. The data exceeded expectations, and U.S. stocks rose sharply.

two

CME gave a 90.4% probability that the Fed would not raise interest rates in December. Combined with the cooling of employment and the increase in unemployment, the probability of the end of this round of interest rate hikes has approached infinity. The probability of a rate cut in March next year has reached 21.6%, and the probability of a rate cut in May has reached 57%, which means that the probability of a rate cut before the third quarter of next year is not low. The swap contract even predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points next year, and the expectations for the macro environment are gradually improving.

three

American weapons are present on both the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Four

Bitcoin ETF has been approved. The fund managers of Bitcoin index funds invest in index constituent stocks. They build an index fund portfolio by purchasing some or all of the stocks included in a certain index. The purpose is to make the trend of this portfolio consistent with the index, so as to obtain returns roughly the same as the index.

five

Funds in the cryptocurrency market have begun to flow in on a large scale, with the market value of USDT increasing by 830 million.

USDC did not, and we can basically conclude that Chinese people rushed in. Why? Because the best stable currency for Chinese people to buy is USDT.

Korean retail investors use KWR, American retail investors have USD, institutions and professional investors have USDC, and Chinese people have nothing, so they use USDT. Also, from a time perspective, there will be more pull-ups in the early morning, that is, during the daytime in Asia time.

six

The Bitcoin fund line was approved at $26,000. Even if there is a pullback in the future, it is impossible to fall below the range of $25,000 to $28,000. In November, the range is expected to be between $33,500 and $37,900.