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The US military launched a "defensive strike" in southern Iran. The situation flipped in an instant.

Just when everyone thought the Middle East was cooling down, the US military suddenly took action in southern Iran, targeting missile launch sites and Iranian vessels attempting to lay mines. The official stance is labeled as a "defensive strike," and they stated they would show restraint during the ceasefire period but "will firmly defend US forces."

With a statement of "restraint" and another of "defense," the tension has skyrocketed.

In the short term, oil prices are likely to spike. Especially in the crypto market, volatility is ramping up, and the recently established expectations of "Middle East de-escalation" have been shattered, leading to a repricing of market uncertainty.

In the coming days, keep an eye on whether Iran will retaliate and if the US will expand its strike zone. Be vigilant for wild fluctuations, manage your leverage, and watch the situation unfold.

Once the gunfire starts, all bets are off. $BTC #TRX突破0.375美元创年内新高

June brings three potential catalysts for price volatility.

1️⃣ World Cup Kickoff (6.11)
Historical data shows that during major sporting events, trading activity often decreases. BTC is no exception. During the 2022 World Cup, it dropped over 15% at one point.

2️⃣ SpaceX IPO (6.12)
The largest IPO in history, raising over $70 billion. Massive funds pulled from the secondary market could put pressure on BTC liquidity, leading to potential sell-offs.

3️⃣ Fed's Waller Speaks (6.18)
The new chair advocates for "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction." While rate cuts are bullish, balance sheet reduction is bearish. Reducing the balance sheet directly pulls dollar liquidity, posing a substantial threat to risk assets. If the market focuses on balance sheet reduction, prices could sharply correct.

With these three factors overlapping, volatility is likely to increase in mid to late June. Be mindful of your positions and exercise caution in chasing highs. $BTC #以太坊升级拟引入原生隐私转账

Right now, Japan's holding a $50 trillion "carry trade bomb," and the whole world is pretending not to see it.

Japan has the highest debt globally at 1,343 trillion yen, which is 260% of its GDP, even higher than Greece's when it went bankrupt. But they can manage, since over 90% of the debt is owed to their own people (Bank of Japan, pension funds, the public)—it's easier to negotiate family matters.

The real bomb is the carry trade.

For the past thirty years, Japan's interest rates have been almost zero, leading the world's money to borrow yen, then swap it for dollars to buy U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and <a>$BTC </a>, raking in the interest differential. This scale is about $3.7-5 trillion.

Now, Japan is being pressured to raise interest rates (to save the yen and curb inflation), but if they do, the yen appreciates → carry trades unwind → global sell-off of U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, Bitcoin → financial tsunami.

Not raising rates? The yen continues to drop, prices rise, public discontent grows, but the carry trade just keeps ballooning. It's like adding more yield to the bomb.

Japan's stuck between a rock and a hard place. Raising rates could collapse their own finances, while not raising rates buries them deeper in risk. Even if they raise to 1.5%, the interest differential with the U.S. at 3.5% is still significant. If they are forced to hike rates quickly, unwinding 20% of the carry trade could mean a $1 trillion sell-off—no one can escape that.

In short, Japan's free "global asset ATM" is nearing a breakdown.

If they flip the table, the whole world might get caught in the fallout.#美消费者信心降至44.8连跌三月

The US and Iran are at it again in the Strait of Hormuz, with fighter jets and warships getting directly involved, and the US Central Command has acknowledged it.

The kicker is that just a few hours ago, Trump was boasting about progress in negotiations with Iran. Talk about a rapid facepalm.

The market reacted swiftly: US stock futures took a nosedive, oil prices shot up, and gold dipped before moving sideways—classic risk-off behavior. Just last night, oil prices plummeted by 6%, and everyone thought the talks were stable, only to wake up to chaos again.

BTC broke below $77,000, and ETH fell below $2,100. Funding rates across major exchanges are all in the red, leaving long position holders feeling shaky. The ETF scene isn’t looking great either, with over $100 million flowing out in a single day, and BlackRock leading the way in reducing positions—big money is clearly dodging risks.

In the short term, this US-Iran situation isn’t calming down; the hawks behind Trump are pushing hard and won’t budge, making any agreement tough to come by. So, expect more market volatility.

For trading strategies, those with a weak stomach should watch from the sidelines with light positions and avoid chasing pumps. If you’ve got deep pockets, consider picking up some cheap chips during sharp dips, as the long-term logic remains intact.

Keep a close eye on one signal: if the US and Iran actually sign a deal, oil prices could drop, inflation pressure might ease, and expectations for Fed rate cuts could resurface, allowing prices to potentially rise for real. $BTC #美消费者信心降至44.8连跌三月

The current core disputes between the US and Iran focus on two major issues:

① The sequence of asset unfreezing and the nuclear issue. Iran insists that once a deal is announced, part of the frozen assets must be unfrozen immediately, and that these asset releases cannot be tied to the nuclear materials issue. If the frozen assets aren't released, neither side will reach a consensus. Iran calls this its "bottom line."

② The handling of enriched uranium. The US demands that Iran hand over its high-enriched uranium, with Trump even insisting that the US should directly "seize" it. Iran strongly opposes this and has issued orders that enriched uranium stocks cannot be sent abroad. Currently, both sides have only agreed to defer specific handling methods to later negotiations.

Right now, the market is trading not on the agreement itself, but on expectations. If the agreement materializes—risk in the Strait of Hormuz decreases → oil pressure eases → inflation expectations cool → BTC and other risk assets recover. But if the agreement is just political window dressing, with core nuclear issues and sanctions unresolved, then the previously priced-in "peace premium" faces the risk of a pullback.

So what’s really worth watching next:
① Will the details of the agreement be finalized in "a matter of days," or will it continue to drag on?
② Can the Iran nuclear issue make substantive progress within a 60-day framework, or will it remain superficial?
③ After the market has priced in a lot of optimism, how much safety margin is left?

Trump said he "doesn't make bad deals." The market initially bought this, but deep down, that tension is still there. $BTC #不丹转移90枚BTC

Over the weekend, news about the US-Iran nuclear deal has been dominating the headlines. Trump's latest statements are bold, but the market's reaction seems to be more interesting than his words.

On May 24, Trump took to social media, stating that if a deal is reached with Iran, it will definitely be an OK deal; he won’t make bad trades. However, he also admitted that the deal "is not fully negotiated yet" and that "no one has seen it." On the same day, White House officials revealed that the US and Iran are still "a few days away" from finalizing the deal.

The outline of the draft agreement that has surfaced generally includes: ① A ceasefire extension for 60 days. ② The Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. Iran agrees to clear the mines laid in the strait to ensure free navigation for vessels, and the strait will be "open for free." In exchange, the US will lift the blockade on Iranian ports and provide some sanctions waivers, allowing Iran to freely sell oil. ③ Nuclear negotiations will commence. Iran pledges to never seek nuclear weapons and will negotiate on halting uranium enrichment activities and transferring high-enriched uranium stockpiles. However, specific arrangements are still up for discussion. Trump previously demanded that the US directly seize these materials, which faced strong opposition from Iran. ④ Ending the Lebanon front. The draft explicitly calls for an end to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. ⑤ Iran demands an immediate unfreezing of funds and permanent lifting of sanctions, but the US has stated that this will only be fulfilled after significant concessions from Iran.

Even if a peace agreement is announced, clearing mines in the strait, insurance arrangements, and restoring supply chains will take at least two to three months, and oil prices "definitely won't drop back quickly." JPMorgan previously predicted that even if the strait resumes navigation in June, Brent crude will still remain above $100 per barrel for most of 2026. $BTC #不丹转移90枚BTC

First, let's check the whale address part at $BTC in the charts; there was a net inflow of 1575 coins yesterday. This volume is pretty standard, but considering it was a low-volatility Sunday, that's quite active. Why the activity? It's influenced by the ongoing 60-day ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran, along with the back-and-forth regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, over the past week, the net inflow of 4073 coins seems average. Coupled with the data showing that spot ETFs are still in a sell-off state—despite a reduction in selling pressure—the overall funding situation hasn't improved effectively.

Therefore, this recent price increase from the 74300 level is likely just a solid bounce in the midst of a downtrend. After facing effective resistance from above, we could either see a second dip or possibly continue to drop directly. So, the upcoming perspectives will revolve around where the price might bounce back to, and if it turns bearish again, where the potential bottom could form.

Back to the charts, here are my thoughts:

1. The effective resistance zone above, in my view, is around [77800-78300]. Only if the price breaks through and holds above 78300 can we open up more space above. Bulls would then have a chance to regain market control. However, I believe the price will likely face resistance and drop back within this range. But if the bulls really push hard and break through and hold above 78300, the next target could be around 79500.

2. If the price encounters resistance and drops back as expected, don't panic; don't worry that the price is doomed. It might just be a normal downward adjustment. The downward target might be around the 76000 level. At least for now, there's an opportunity to catch some low longs. Of course, keep your defense in check.

3. Only if we effectively break below the 76000 level, say hitting 75500, then we might have a problem. At that point, we need to reassess based on the specific price action. There's a possibility that the price could weaken and drop directly, signaling the end of the bounce. But I think this likelihood is relatively low.

4. Just a quick note, if 74000 isn't a relative low and we break below it effectively, the price could drop down to around 72000. At that time, the overall trend could get tricky for the bulls. #Vitalik承诺精简EF减售ETH

Kevin Walsh's true identity isn't the Fed Chair; he's the mastermind behind this global harvest.

You thought the strong dollar was a result of rate hikes? How naive. There's only one script: blow up the bubble, then pop it. The dollar peaks, and the world pays the bill.

Walsh understands this game better than anyone. He talks about fighting inflation, but deep down he knows—without a bubble, where’s the harvest?

The complete cycle has four steps.

Step one, unleash the money printer. Lower rates, expand the balance sheet, pump cash—commodities, food, stock prices all skyrocket. Everyone's partying, assets hit the ceiling, debts max out. The goal is simple: get everyone up on that high platform.

Step two, flip the script instantly. Once the bubble inflates to the max, Walsh changes his tune immediately. Aggressive rate hikes, liquidity gets sucked out overnight. What was once wild is now a nightmare. It’s not really about fighting inflation; it’s about manufacturing a crash.

Step three, the world kneels. Emerging market currencies get halved, assets drop to bargain prices. At this point, the strong dollar enters with greenbacks in hand, scooping up cheap buys. Harvest complete, hegemony sustained.

Step four, what if it backfires? If the bubble bursts and he can’t hold it together, then everyone goes down together.

Without a bubble, rate hikes have no reason. Without a bubble, there’s no room for a crash. Without panic, the dollar can’t strengthen at all.

One truth: the strong dollar is always built on a global inflation bubble. First, the celebration, then the harvest, the dollar peaks, and the world pays. This is the ultimate play.

Let’s see how this round unfolds. $BTC #谷歌推出Gemini3.5模型

Kevin Walsh is set to take the oath of office as the Chair of the Fed at the White House on May 22 (this Friday, Eastern Time), with President Trump personally hosting the ceremony. The Senate confirmed this nomination last week with a vote of 54 in favor and 45 against, marking one of the closest records in nearly 50 years, highlighting the significant bipartisan divide. Powell's eight-year term ended on May 15, and he will serve as the interim chair until Walsh officially takes over, at which point he will remain as a board member.

However, Walsh's situation is quite delicate. On one hand, he leans towards cutting rates to align with the Trump administration's low-rate demands, advocating that AI and deregulation will boost productivity, thereby creating conditions for rate cuts. On the other hand, he is widely seen as an "inflation hawk," having long criticized quantitative easing and advocating for a swift reduction of the Fed's balance sheet, which stands at a hefty $6.7 trillion.

Rate cuts are akin to pumping liquidity, while balance sheet reduction is like tightening, with the two directions being opposites. Walsh is attempting to push for both rate cuts and balance sheet reduction by 2026, employing a strategy of "loose money + tight balance sheet" as a hedging operation. However, inflation has been persistently above the 2% target for five consecutive years, with April's CPI year-on-year rate hitting 3.8% and PPI annual growth at 6%, both at recent highs.

Currently, the ongoing US-Iran conflict is driving oil prices up, with the national average gas price exceeding $4.5 per gallon. Coupled with the Trump administration's tariff policies pushing up the prices of imported goods, inflationary pressures continue to worsen. Even Trump, who has consistently pressured for rate cuts, has had to admit that these data points won't be clear until after the war ends. As of now, the futures market predicts a zero probability of rate cuts, with nearly a 40% chance of rate hikes within the year.

Most members of the FOMC advocate for maintaining a tight stance, and dovish representative Milan has resigned before Walsh's appointment. Walsh holds only one vote on the 12-member committee, while Powell remains on the FOMC with voting rights. The first FOMC meeting on June 16-17 will present a dilemma of "not cutting rates could upset the White House, while cutting rates could make inflation harder to manage."

Overall, Walsh is stepping into a situation where the room for rate cuts is blocked by high inflation, and balance sheet reduction is hindered by the vulnerability of the US Treasury market, with Trump's political pressure looming large overhead. He needs to navigate a tightrope between the White House, the market, and his colleagues, while the global market is closely watching the first meeting on June 17. $BTC #谷歌推出Gemini3.5模型

The funding rate for positions with ID $BTC is visibly increasing, indicating that the bulls are continuously adding to their long positions. But does this mean the bottom is in? Not necessarily. It just reflects the current state of the bulls.

Looking at the liquidation data, we can see that when the price hits around 75000, the liquidation pressure is extremely high. For the institutional players, the risk-to-reward ratio is also at its peak. So, after a sharp drop and potential rebound, it's quite likely that the price will hover around the 75000 mark.

As for whether it's a good idea to start dollar-cost averaging in once the price actually hits 75000, my answer is yes, it's time to begin scaling in.
#美国议员推动立法永久禁止cbdc

First, take a look at the whale address part in the candlestick showing $BTC , which saw a net inflow of 449 coins yesterday. However, the BTC spot ETF data showed an outflow of 8376.56 coins yesterday. Combining these two data points, I believe we are entering a small phase of panic in the market. Whether it's Western or Asian investors, the trend is definitely leaning towards shorting, primarily driven by short-term traders. The ETF data gives us a sense that the volume of this sell-off is significant. Yet, the price didn't completely tank yesterday. Moreover, the overall whale addresses are still experiencing a positive inflow, though the volume is rather average, with around 400 coins indicating a balance in buying and selling. Still, we can observe that the main funds are passively absorbing these panic sell-off chips.

I believe we have at least traversed half of the downward cycle. When the main funds have absorbed enough of the panic selling, we can expect a return to an upward trend.

Back to the charts, based on the current price action, here are my thoughts:

1. The 76000 level is a solid support, a point I made clear yesterday. This is why we see today's rebound. However, so far, the rebound has been quite mediocre. If the price continues to decline and effectively breaks below 76000, we should look at the 74000 levels. There’s no need to focus on the 70000 level or even lower at this moment.

2. If the price continues to rebound, meaning it doesn’t drop further today, there are two key resistance zones above, and they are quite close to each other. One is the range [77600-77800]. The other is the range [78300-78600]. If the price doesn’t drop and moves up, I wouldn’t recommend mindlessly shorting in the first resistance zone. The second zone is whatever.

3. So, what would indicate that we continue to see a rebound? From now on, breaking above the 77200 level would be sufficient.

4. At this point, the market can go either way, so I suggest taking a wait-and-see approach.

In summary, this is for your reference only.
#美国议员推动立法永久禁止cbdc

$BTC This recent dip at dawn has three main reasons: ① Geopolitical tensions are escalating. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is worsening, with Brent crude skyrocketing past $110, triggering a flight to safety. ② Inflation is exploding + US Treasury yields are surging. April's CPI exceeded expectations, and rate cuts are completely off the table. The 10-year Treasury yield shot up to 4.6%, while the 30-year reached a new high since 2007. A risk-free return of 5%+ makes US Treasuries quite appealing. ③ Long leverage positions are getting liquidated. After breaking below $77,000, mass liquidations were triggered, leading to a death spiral. Over 24 hours, more than $650 million in liquidations occurred, affecting 150,000 traders. The short-term support levels are $76,000 and $74,000. With macro conditions unchanged, any bounce back is merely a chance to escape.

Additionally, this morning's drop has also breached the cost line for short-term holders. The latest data shows that the cost price for short-term holders is now at $78,268. It's clear from the charts that since the price fell below the short-term holders' cost line on May 16, there have been at least three attempts to reclaim it, all ending in failure, pushing the short-term market back into a weak price range. This also reflects a panic market.

Normally, as long as the price remains below the short-term holders' cost line, selling pressure will gradually increase, potentially triggering a larger pullback. Therefore, if the market starts to bounce back, and the indicator lines begin to converge with the price line, be especially cautious of the pressure the cost line indicator exerts on the price. After all, some short-term holders have just managed to break even—who wouldn’t want to run for safety? Haha.
#spacex将上市估值或达2万亿美元

Trump's visit to China wraps up, and the Clarity Act's first phase is in play, redirecting market attention back to the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude oil is holding steady above $100, and inflation is making a comeback. Iran is rolling out its own shipping fee plan, and Trump is clearly opposed. With both sides in a tug-of-war, geopolitical risks are heating up again.

More critically, the US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) has surged close to 4.6%. If oil prices stay high, don’t count on any rate cuts. Trump is likely to make some moves.

This Thursday, there's another big event: NVIDIA's Q1 earnings report. Whether this short-term frenzy in US stocks can continue dancing depends on it. As long as the results are solid, the market still has the momentum to push higher. $BTC #spacex将上市估值或达2万亿美元