Original author: Loopy Lu

Original source: daily planet daily

In the near future, tokens from many well-known projects including Solana, Yuga Labs, Optimism, etc. will be unlocked in large amounts. How will an unlock of this scale impact the market amid a sluggish market?

This article focuses on the 15 mainstream coins that will be unlocked in large amounts in the next few months, sorting them out in terms of unlock quantity, unlock time, unlock amount, ratio to circulation and other dimensions, comparing and classifying them, and analyzing the token holdings of representative projects. the influence of

In the next month or so, mainstream currencies such as SOL, APE, and BIT will all be unlocked in large amounts. And the way these items are unlocked is also different.

SOL "unlocked" a large amount, but 2/3 of it cannot be circulated

Among the many unlocking tokens, SOL may be the most special one. Looking at the unlocking rules alone, according to data from Solana Comapss, 21.3 million SOL will be unlocked this year, which is not a small number. If SOL, which accounts for 4% of the total supply, flows into the market, it will inevitably have an impact on prices. At current prices, these SOLs would be equivalent to approximately $270 million.

Although there are a large number of unlocked tokens, these unlocked tokens may not flow into the market in a short time. Currently 48.13 million locked SOL are held by Alameda’s wallet, accounting for 66.1% of all locked shares. As Alameda is in bankruptcy proceedings, these SOLs will not be transferred immediately until the liquidation proceedings are completed.

Cliff unlocks once and releases huge

SAND is a typical example of cliff unlocking in this unlocking tide. 350 million SAND will be unlocked at one time on February 14, which will account for 11.6% of the current circulating supply.

Although the amount unlocked at one time is huge, the SAND circulation will not change for up to half a year, and the next unlock will not happen until August.

1INCH unlocking is the same.

High-frequency linear unlocking deserves attention

Although the number of "cliff unlocks" released at one time is quite large, what investors should really pay attention to is the linear release that is not obvious each time. After a long period of accumulation, the number is still considerable. Its unlocking curve has become a rapidly rising "ramp".

Taking GLMR as an example, in the latest unlock, about 46 million GLMR were unlocked. These amounts are equivalent to 4.6% of the current circulating supply, which is similar to SOL. But unlike SOL, GLMR will not be unlocked just once, but will continue to be unlocked every month. After the end of 2023, 250 million GLMR will be unlocked, and the circulation will increase by more than one-third compared to today.

APE, BIT, APT, X2Y2, and LOOKS unlocks are of this type.

Unlocking curves with various shapes

In addition to common unlocking types, some special situations deserve investors' special attention.

Taking DYDX as an example, the most recent unlock only unlocked 0.6% of the tokens in circulation. But after February arrives, approximately 145 million investor and team tokens will be unlocked at once. The newly unlocked amount accounts for about 60% of the current circulation.

The OP unlocking curve falls into the same category, and there will be a one-time large release in June, with 15.5 million pieces unlocked.

AXS also deserves special attention. At the end of January, the project will usher in a small-scale unlocking of 4.88 million coins, and from late March to April, AXS will unlock approximately 23 million coins in two installments.

RON is special. The project has been releasing linearly every month at a relatively stable rate. After entering February this year, the release speed suddenly accelerated. GMT is similar and will begin to accelerate linear unlocking in March.

How do investors respond to unlocking?

When large amounts are unlocked, what worries investors most is whether there will be selling pressure on the currency price.

Take this past December, for example. At the end of December, more than 200 million 1INCH were unlocked. As early as December 7, the 1inch Foundation had allocated unlocked tokens to multiple contract addresses for investors and teams to claim on their own. While it’s unclear how much impact the unlocking sell-off had due to broader market volatility, 1INCH has continued to move lower since the distribution. On December 7, the price dropped by 6.7%, from around 0.47 USDT to the current level of around 0.39 USDT.

Just today, a SAND genesis allocation address transferred tokens after two years. The address transferred 21.6 million SAND (more than 10 million US dollars) to Binance. There are currently 18.2 million SAND in the address. Previously, this address transferred 13.4 million SAND to Binance in 4 transactions after SAND was launched in August 2020. According to the SAND token unlocking schedule, the only distributions that can be circulated at that time are foundation and company reserves, which means that the address may be an address controlled by the project party/foundation.

Some community users speculated that SAND is already preparing in advance for the control after unlocking.

LooksRare chose staking to reduce the selling pressure on the circulation. On January 2, 37.5 million LOOKS were unlocked, accounting for 3.75% of the total supply. According to 0 xScope monitoring, 25 million LOOKS belonging to the LooksRare team and 12.5 million LOOKS in the treasury have been pledged by team members after being unlocked and distributed on January 2. The impact of its pledge on the market outlook remains to be further observed.

In the midst of a bear market, large token unlocks are not good news for holders. The specific choice of selling, long-term holding, staking or other financial operations depends on the belief of different holders in the project and the cost of holding positions (short sellers may also take advantage of the opportunity to disturb the market). How to develop products, services and expand the market in a bear market will be a practical test for the project side.

(The above content is excerpted and reprinted with the authorization of partner MarsBit, original text link | Source: Odaily Planet Daily)

Statement: The article only represents the author's personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective views and positions of the blockchain. All contents and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the author and Blockchain Client will not be held responsible for any direct or indirect losses caused by investors' transactions.

This article counts 15 mainstream projects that have recently "token unlocked". It first appeared on Blockchain.