Let’s talk about our views on the market.

1 After three days of hotness, the market started to cool down at midnight yesterday, and some coins fell severely. However, I think the probability of BTC reaching its peak at this position is relatively low, and even the probability of a larger adjustment is not high. Unless there is a major negative news. Our operations are based on high probability, and we do a good job of risk control to prevent low-probability events.

2 The market is still relatively strong. There are two main manifestations:

1: FTX started to sell coins substantially, and the value of the coins it currently holds is still very large. However, the market reaction was not very significant.

2: The U.S. stock market has fallen sharply in the past two days, but BTC has not seen a significant decline given its previous huge gains.

3 But there are still problems in the market

1: There are no coins that have exploded. In a good market, there will often be one or two coins that have exploded, and the increase is surprising. This opens up room for imagination for the coins that will rise later. The most powerful coin in the market now is TRB, but TRB started to rise two months ago. It did not start to rise in this wave of market.

Most of the rises in the past few days were those coins that had fallen sharply. It is more like a self-rescue of routine funds, but when the price rises to an important pressure level, it may be shipped, and the sustainability is worrying.

2: There are no hot sectors. We have not seen any hot sectors yet. There will be different voices in the market, such as BTC ecology, gamefi, rwa, etc. But now, the ones that are rising well are all pulling themselves up, not focusing. In the current stock market, funds are limited, so it is best to focus on one sector and form a money-making effect to attract more funds that miss out on buying.

Two new opportunities

1: FTX, there is new news recently. According to investigation, FTX may be taken over by the end of this year. I think the probability of FTX restarting is relatively high. The key is how and when, and how to deal with the debt.

On the one hand, FTX has compliant brands in many places.

Second, it has risen to the level of confrontation between China and the United States. The United States will need an exchange that can fight against CZ. Recently, FTX assets have been sold, and these have become news again and again. FTT's total market value is now 460 million US dollars, most of which are frozen. Only 10% of the chips are in Binance Exchange, which is about 40 to 50 million in circulation.

2: STG. Now it is rumored that layerzero is going to issue a coin. It is said that this time it is definitely true. So STG is worth paying attention to.

Can the SEC approve a BTC spot ETF?

My view is that it definitely can, it’s just a matter of time.

1: SEC recognizes BTC. There are compliant digital currency exchanges in the US. There are compliant BTC futures exchanges. There are also BTC trust funds like Grayscale. So SEC definitely recognizes BTC. Then the spot ETF has not been approved yet. There may be other considerations that make SEC more cautious. For example, I read an article last time saying that the huge US pension funds can only be purchased through spot ETFs. I don’t know if the article is right.

2: There are many companies applying for BTC spot ETFs now, including BlackRock, which we pay the most attention to. These large institutions are highly sensitive to policies and have top-notch core resources. With so many companies applying at the same time, they must feel that the time has come.

In fact, the most critical question behind this topic is, for example, if the spot ETF is approved next month, will it start a bull market? My personal opinion is no.

Spot ETF is good news and substantial. However, in the short term, it is good news. Because spot ETF is a purchase channel, and the decision to buy or not requires your expectations of the BTC price. Especially when spot ETF is opened, the market will pull up. Those newly arrived funds will not take over at high prices.

Can buying altcoins now outperform Bitcoin?

The total market value of Bitcoin now accounts for more than 50% of the total market value of virtual currencies.

That is to say, except for Bitcoin, the total market value of all virtual currencies added together is not as much as Bitcoin. According to past experience, the more bearish the market, the higher the share of Bitcoin market value, and the more bullish the market, the lower the share of Bitcoin market value. When it drops to a certain level, the bear market comes, and the dealers panic and exchange all their altcoins for Bitcoin, and the market value of altcoins begins to decline.

Let’s look at it the other way around.


When the market is bearish to a certain extent and the market share of Bitcoin reaches a certain level, is the bull market coming soon? Is the market of altcoins about to start?

Then as more and more people enter the market, the growth of altcoins will become more and more rapid, because the market value is low and it is too easy to pull it up, and one wave can create many myths!

So I think when the market value of all altcoins is compressed to a certain space, a new round of market conditions will quietly begin!

There are two lessons about altcoins:

1. Buy new coins instead of old ones. New coins are not locked in and can be easily pulled up, and there are more technical points that can be hyped.

2. New coins have high risks. Most new coins are heading towards zero from the moment they are listed.

Buy new instead of old. We should buy new coins. If the risk is high, we should choose the most well-known new coins. To sum up, in addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum, we can also configure some new copies of big brands that have great reputations, low market capitalization, and technological innovations. You can take them and wait for the bull market to take off together!

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