Teach you how to judge BTC price through indicator charts?

九九中线 · 2023-10-27T02:33:05.000Z

In the current highly emotional market environment, what can we use to judge the top/bottom of BTC price? For crypto investors, there are two eternal pursuits, 1) selling at the top; 2) buying at the bottom. In addition to judging the value of the project, in the current market environment with high emotions, what can we use to judge? What about BTC tops/bottoms? I will bring you six very instructive [Practical BTC on-chain indicators] explanations, which you can refer to to judge the trend of BTC~1. The first indicator to be introduced is: MVRV: Market Value to Realized Value RatioMVRV is The ratio is calculated by the total market value of BTC/the market value calculated from the last active price of BTC. This ratio represents the profitability of BTC holders. When the MVRV exceeds 3.5, it usually means that the market has reached the top; because when the MVRV is too high, it means that the holders will make greater profits, and the holders will tend to sell at this time; 2. When the MVRV is lower than 1, it usually means that the market has reached a top. When the market reaches the bottom, most investors are in a state of loss, and their willingness to hold will be greater than their willingness to sell. That is, there will be fewer sellers in the market, which can increase the probability of subsequent price increases. The indicator is currently at 1.658, which is not in its long-term bottom and top range. 3. The second thing to introduce is the Bitcoin Ahr999 Index. This index is used to guide when BTC has reached the bottom and when it is suitable for fixed investment. It is essentially a timing indicator. Ahr999 = (Bitcoin price/200-day fixed investment cost) * (Bitcoin price/exponential growth valuation) This indicator implies the return rate of Bitcoin fixed investment and the deviation of Bitcoin price from the expected valuation, so the lower the It means that the price of BTC is more undervalued. 4. Specific usage: 1) When AHR999<span this indicator will recommend buying; 2) When AHR999 is between 0.45-1.2, this indicator will recommend fixed investment; 3) When AHR999 is greater than 1.2 , this indicator does not provide operational suggestions; the current value of this indicator is 0.66, which is the recommended range for fixed investment. 5. The third indicator to be introduced is Bitcoin market share. Bitcoin market share refers to the market share of Bitcoin in the entire digital currency market. The price performance characteristic of BTC market share is that it is the first to discover value in the early stages of the bull market, and the market share will become higher at this time. However, in the middle and late stages of the bull market, funds will spill over to Ethereum and altcoins, and the market share will become lower at this time.6. Judging from the historical performance of BTC’s market share, it rose from 50.7% to 60.5% in the 2018 bull market, and reached a bull market high of 69% in 2022. During this period, BTC was in a strong upward stage. When the market share declines, it is mainly driven by the rise of copycats, and the market may move sideways or rise slowly; the market share at the bottom of the last bear market reached 38%, which can be used as a reference for future bottoms. The current market share of BTC is steadily increasing, accounting for 53.04%. 7. The fourth thing to introduce is SOPR: Spent Output Profit Ratio calculation method = Price sold/Price paid, that is, the selling price of the asset on the day/the buying price of the asset. This indicator is also used to reflect the overall profit and loss of the market and market sentiment. Condition. When the SOPR value continues to rise and is greater than 1, it means that the market continues to rise; when the SOPR value continues to fall and is less than 1, it means that the market continues to fall; 8. As shown in the figure below, it can be seen that when the SOPR value When there is a sharp drop, it means that everyone in the market is selling at a loss. When there are more people selling, the meaning behind it is that the market is closer to the bottom. So when SOPR drops sharply, it means that a large number of sellers have sold and left. Therefore, the possibility of bottoming is relatively high at this time. The indicator is currently showing a continued upward trend with a value of 1.016, indicating that continued buying is now more common. 9. The fifth thing to introduce is the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Index (The Rainbow Chart). The rainbow chart has nine color bands. The most important red and blue represent the bubble stage and the BTC fire sale stage respectively, which are used to represent the market. the top and bottom. We can see from the figure that the tops of the past four times have all fallen on the rainbow chart indicating selling, and the bottoms have also fallen on the rainbow chart indicating buying. 10. When the market sentiment is enthusiastic or pessimistic, using the rainbow chart to see which stage it is currently is a good reference indicator. Judging from the current state of the rainbow chart, the market is now in the "accumulation" stage. 11. The last thing to introduce is the Pi Cycle Indicator. This indicator uses simple moving averages 111SMA and 350SMA to identify the top of BTC price, and uses 471SMA and 150SMA to identify the bottom of the market. As shown below, the overlap point reflects the market's high point. The use of this indicator is to find the overlap point to pay attention to the top risk of the market. Judging from the display of this indicator, it has not reached the top now. #BTC

In today's market environment with high sentiment, what can we use to judge the top/bottom of BTC price?
For crypto investors, there are two eternal pursuits: 1) sell at the top; 2) buy at the bottom. In addition to the value judgment of the project, in the current market environment with high emotions, what can we use to judge the top/bottom of BTC?
Here are six very instructive [Practical BTC On-Chain Indicators] for you to refer to and judge the trend of BTC~
1. The first indicator to be introduced is: MVRV: Market Value to Realized Value Ratio
MVRV is a ratio calculated by dividing the total market value of BTC by the market value calculated from the last active price of BTC. This ratio represents the profitability of BTC holders.
When MVRV exceeds 3.5, it usually means that the market has reached its top; because when MVRV is too high, it means that the holders have made a greater profit, and at this time the holders will tend to sell;
2. When MVRV is below 1, it usually means that the market has reached the bottom.
Investors are mostly in a loss-making state, and their willingness to hold is greater than their willingness to sell, that is, there are fewer sellers in the market, which can increase the probability of subsequent price increases. The indicator is currently 1.658, which is not in the long-term bottom and top range.
3. The second one to be introduced is the Bitcoin Ahr999 Index
This index is used to guide when BTC has reached its bottom and when it is suitable for regular investment. It is essentially a timing indicator.
Ahr999 = (Bitcoin price/200-day fixed investment cost) * (Bitcoin price/index growth valuation)
This indicator implies the rate of return of Bitcoin fixed investment and the deviation of Bitcoin price from expected valuation. Therefore, the lower it is, the more undervalued the BTC price is.
4. Specific usage:
1) When AHR999<0.45, the indicator will suggest buying;
2) When AHR999 is between 0.45-1.2, the indicator will recommend fixed investment;
3) When AHR999 is greater than 1.2, the indicator does not provide any operational recommendations;
The current value of this indicator is 0.66, which is the recommended range for fixed investment.
5. The third indicator to be introduced is Bitcoin market share
Bitcoin's market capitalization share refers to the market value share of Bitcoin in the entire digital currency market.
The price performance characteristics of BTC market share are that its value is first discovered in the early stage of the bull market, at which time the market share will become higher, and in the middle and late stages of the bull market, funds overflow to Ethereum and altcoins, at which time the market share will become lower.
6. Judging from the historical performance of BTC’s market share, it rose from 50.7% to 60.5% during the bull market in 2018, and reached a high of 69% in the bull market in 2022. During this period, BTC was in a strong upward stage.
When the market share declines, it is mainly driven by the rise of copycats, and Bitcoin may go sideways or rise slowly. The market share at the bottom of the last bear market reached 38%, which can be used as a reference for the future bottom.
The current BTC market share is steadily increasing, accounting for 53.04%.
7. The fourth one to be introduced is SOPR: Spent Output Profit Ratio
Calculation method = Price sold/Price paid, that is, the selling price of the asset/the buying price of the asset on that day. This indicator is also used to reflect the overall market profit and loss and market sentiment.
When the SOPR value continues to rise and is greater than 1, it means that the market is continuing to rise; when the SOPR value continues to fall and is less than 1, it means that the market is continuing to fall;
8. As shown in the figure below, it can be seen that when the SORP value drops sharply, it means that people in the market are selling at a loss. The more people are selling, the closer the market is to the bottom. So when SOPR drops sharply, it means that a large number of sellers have sold and left, so the possibility of the bottom is relatively high at this time.
Currently, the indicator shows a continued upward trend with a value of 1.016, which indicates that there is a lot of continued buying.
9. The fifth one to be introduced is the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Index
The rainbow chart has nine color bands, the most important of which are red and blue, representing the bubble stage and the BTC sell-off stage respectively, which are used to indicate the top and bottom of the market.
From the chart we can see that the past four tops all fell on the color band of the rainbow chart representing sell, and the bottoms all fell on the color band representing buy.
10. When the market sentiment is enthusiastic or pessimistic, it is a good reference indicator to use the rainbow chart to see which stage it is in. Judging from the current state of the rainbow chart, the market is now in the "accumulation" stage.
11. The last one to be introduced is Pi Cycle Indicator
This indicator uses the simple moving averages 111SMA and 350SMA to identify the top of the BTC price, and uses 471SMA and 150SMA to identify the bottom of the market. As shown below, the overlapping points reflect the highs of the market, and the usage of this indicator is to look for overlapping points to pay attention to the top risks of the market. From the display of this indicator, it has not reached the top yet.
#BTC 