Can the driving force behind the surge in TRB help its price continue to rise? Is TRB still worth buying? This article will give you an in-depth analysis of TRB's price trend. Don't miss it!
TL;DR
TRB's surge in September was mainly due to the buying of stocks by whales; the rise in mid-October was due to macro market sentiment.
The Tellor protocol itself has no obvious highlights. The price of its token is not proportional to the development of the project. The overall value is overestimated and there is a large bubble.
There are currently three whale addresses controlling approximately 25.7% of the total supply of TRB, worth more than $65.3 million.
The price of TRB may continue to climb to $110-130 in the short term. However, a crash caused by whale liquidation may happen at any time.
What is Tellor?
Tellor is a decentralized oracle protocol. Its main service is to provide users with access to off-chain data outside the Ethereum network (such as API or Polygon chain transaction data).
Tellor aims to solve the current problem of information isolation on the Ethereum network. It creates an independent data system within the network. Users can request to read data from the system through contracts. After receiving the request, Tellor will query and associate relevant data within the system according to the different needs of users.
At the same time, Tellor allows data submission. Submitters will receive TRB as a reward, but they need to pay gas fees and stake TRB to ensure the accuracy of the submitted data.
TRB
TRB is Tellor's native utility token, which is mainly used to incentivize users to submit data within the network. TRB has no fixed supply, and its total supply increases with the rewards for submitting data.
According to Tellor, users who provide data to the system can get TRB as a reward. But before that, users need to pledge a certain amount of TRB to guarantee the validity of the data.
In addition, TRB is also used in Tellor's dispute mechanism. When the accuracy of the data is questioned, TRB will be used for voting arbitration. Only when the arbitration is successful can the user receive rewards. At the same time, TRB is also used for the upgrade governance of the Tellor protocol.
Analysis of the reasons for the surge in TRB
The initial starting point
TRB's initial surge began in September 2023. According to TokenInsight data, TRB's price began to rise significantly on September 7, soaring from a dozen US dollars to a high of US$45 within a week, and finally exceeded US$60 at the end of September, with a monthly increase of 275%.
TRB September Price Trend
So what caused the surge in TRB?
According to our research, the main reason for TRB's surge in September was the pull-up of whales.
According to Etherscan data, the address that currently holds the most TRB is: 0xCcE7300829f49B8f2E4AEe6123b12DA64662a8b8. It is worth noting that this address is an anonymous address, and there is no evidence that it belongs to any exchange or institutional entity.
Since August 30th, the whale has accumulated approximately 441,813 TRB, equivalent to approximately 41.44 million USD (based on Oct. 25 TRB price), accounting for 17.39% of the current total supply of TRB.
In fact, this address has been the address holding the largest amount of TRB since September. According to on-chain transaction records, this address conducted a series of suspected price manipulation operations in September, which directly led to a rocket-like rise in the price of TRB.
Next, let's take a look at the specific trading operations of this account in September:
From August 30th to September 13th, TRB was transferred in multiple times from Binance and OKX exchanges, totaling 755,350, accounting for about 30% of the total supply of TRB.
From August 31st to September 3rd, TRB was transferred out to the anonymous address 0x50Cbc6faeEE68FB63e0A3c8ac8Cda8A8505c960B in 8 batches, totaling about 213,538.
On September 15, 100,000 TRB was first transferred to the Binance address 0x04D8626775e95CecB44DCa386027def00Aa45C62; then 99,999 TRB was transferred from Binance.
Most of the TRB in the 0x 50 C......60 B address has been transferred out. On September 4, 5, and 15, the TRB in this address was transferred back to the Binance address 0x 04 D......C 62 in three batches, totaling 331, 825 TRB.
From these trading operations, it can be seen that the whale's behavior is very likely to be pumping up TRB. It successfully increased the price of TRB from more than a dozen US dollars to nearly 4 times through multiple transactions with huge trading volumes. Since TRB's market value was relatively low at the time, the impact of the whale's pumping on its price was quite obvious.
Second rise
TRB price trend from September to October
After the initial surge, TRB’s price stabilized at $45-50 in early October. Then, influenced by a series of Bitcoin spot ETF news, the sentiment of the entire crypto market continued to rise, forming a small bull market. TRB’s price also rose, rising from $50 to a maximum of $95 between October 15 and 25, an increase of about 90%. Compared with the average market increase of 20-30%, TRB has become one of the biggest beneficiaries in this bull market caused by market sentiment.
The future of TRB
As an investor, I believe the question that everyone is most curious about is how the price of TRB will develop in the future. Is there still room for TRB's price to grow? Is there a risk of a sharp drop in the short term?
First of all, the price of TRB will most likely follow the market sentiment in the short term, and may even continue to rise to $110-130. However, a sharp drop due to whale liquidation may happen at any time. Therefore, we recommend that investors carefully consider when trading TRB and avoid holding a large amount of TRB for a long time to reduce potential risks.
Specific analysis
First of all, if we only consider the project itself, excluding the macro market and whales, the Tellor protocol is essentially one of many decentralized oracle protocols in the market, and there is nothing obvious about it. Like practical Dapp projects, the growth of its token value is directly linked to the development of the project itself.
Judging from the current usage of the Tellor protocol, due to the current popularity, the average number of users submitting data to the Tellor system is between 200 and 300 per day. However, very few of these users receive rewards.
For example, only 4 users who submitted data on October 24 received TRB rewards.
Tellor data submission statistics interface
According to the token economy released by Tellor, the issuance of TRB is linked to data submission rewards. Therefore, as things stand, the total supply of TRB is growing relatively slowly, and its price will not suddenly fall due to a large increase in issuance.
So what are the main factors that affect the price of TRB? The answer is obvious: the whales holding TRB.
In addition to the whale mentioned above that ranks first on the TRB Top Holder List (it holds 17.39% of TRB’s current total supply), there are two anonymous addresses that also currently hold a large amount of TRB.
0x656D048507D2D9488B7A691fEcB28191939904c2
This address transferred TRB from Coinbase in multiple times between September 8 and 25, totaling approximately 111,892, worth $9.85 million. It is currently ranked third on the TRB Top Holder List, holding approximately 4.4% of the total supply of TRB.
0x3a6735d9641cfE11B51ebf4284C412D200adD8c0
This address has transferred TRB from Binance in multiple times since October 20, totaling about 85,805, worth $7.5 million. It is currently ranked sixth on the TRB Top Holder List, holding about 3.4% of the total supply of TRB.
According to statistics, these three whale addresses control nearly 25.7% of the total supply of TRB. Based on the current market price, the holding value exceeds 65.3 million US dollars.
Since TRB currently has a low circulation volume, its price is more easily manipulated by whales. Whether it is a pull or liquidation, these whales will have a significant impact on the price of TRB. And according to the current upward trend of TRB, it is very likely that these whales will suddenly liquidate their holdings one day. This may cause a sudden plunge in the price of TRB and cause an overall collapse.
