Macroeconomics: The crypto market is finally moving independently again, and the S&P SPX500 continues to find new lows. The key support below is 4050. Mike Johnson was successfully elected Speaker of the House of Representatives. The last time the U.S. government postponed its work was around November 18 (the Cancun test network upgrade is also in the middle of next month). We need to pay attention to his subsequent attitude towards the crypto market and finance. The SEC's decision on ETFs will be postponed in November. The earliest it will be in January 24.
Technical aspects: 1. Yesterday, we talked about long and short positions according to the key positions given in the morning session. The upper pressure yesterday was 3.48 3.52. The current market has a fluctuation of several hundred points in a short period of time, which is still quite good. Reduce positions according to the support pressure. The intraday 15m support ma200 moving average is 3.32. ETH's intraday 1825 pressure and 1760 support are also effective. MKR has reached the support level since its target of 1600. The several cottages mentioned yesterday hope to be safe. It is still the view that the small is against the big and there is no such quick reversal.
2.BTC's focus will remain unchanged at 3.8 4. The limit is 4.2. The support remains unchanged at 3.15-3.18. The upper pressure is 3.48 3.59. If the 1h level is lower than 3.32, there will be a callback. The pullback pressure level is still a position where you can intervene again. If it falls below 3.15, the 3.2-3.6 period of shock market will start. If it falls below 2.88, it will weaken. If it falls below 2.8, the market will end. (The intraday long and short positions are the same as yesterday's views. Combined with several key positions, the old rules will be pulled for a while)
3. ETH is as standard as ever. Weakness does not mean non-standard movement. Yesterday’s pressures of 1825 and 1760 were both in effect. Intraday support is short-term 1755, below is 1720 and 1660, and upper pressures are 1825, 1840, 1890 and 1920.
Many old friends asked me, if a big bull comes, how to allocate chips and which sector to ambush first to maximize the efficiency of capital utilization and maximize profits. Let's talk briefly:
Introduction: First of all, let us take "the bull market is coming" as the premise. As to whether it is really the bull market, we will not discuss it for now, because the topic is too long, and various great gods have also made analyses. Let me share my own operational ideas to stimulate discussion.
Back to the topic, the coins/sectors that Niu recommends to ambush in the early stage are:
1. BTC, in the early stage of the bull market, Bitcoin will take the lead, and its increase will be greater than that of most mainstream coins. This is counterintuitive, because many people think that Bitcoin is too big and it is too difficult to pull the price up. It is recommended that you don’t worry about it, Bitcoin does not rely on retail investors’ money to pull the price up...
The price of Bitcoin is driven by institutions, financial giants, and even some wealthy people who do not care about the cost. As for why they do not care about the cost, you have to know that there is a kind of people in the world who are not short of money, and they are very capable of making money in reality. They control the cash cow and money tree industries. Their logic for buying BTC is completely different from that of retail investors. Retail investors buy coins to make money, while some people buy BTC simply to pursue asset diversification, risk diversification, and avoid regulation.
2. Platform coins. When the market environment is good, the "casino" business will be good, and its tokens will naturally rise in price. In each bull market, many old mainstream coins will be left behind/eliminated, but the platform coins of mainstream platforms will basically reach new highs. This probability is very high. Of course, there are very few exceptions, but what I mean is that the probability of making money with platform coins is greater. After all, you have to choose from hundreds of mainstream coins, and there are only a few platform coins of mainstream exchanges. In fact, it is similar to the early days of the stock market bull market, when brokerage stocks take the lead. The simplest way is the best. In fact, the underlying logic of many investments is the same.
3. Public chain coins, L0 and L1 concepts, such as SOL, which has seen a good increase recently, the public chain protocol MINA that exploded yesterday, the new public chain coin APT that was pulled up earlier, and the domestic public chain light CFX that exploded yesterday, etc.
It is recommended to ambush public chain coins with small market capitalization, because they don’t have much ecosystem... It is best to choose those with relatively active Twitter accounts, especially those with favorable news in the near future. This requires individuals to work hard on information collection.
4. Infrastructure tokens. There are actually many of these tokens.
It tests your ability to collect information and your mastery of existing projects in the cryptocurrency circle, that is, experience. In short, no matter what other people are talking about, you can join in the conversation and discuss it. This is impossible for new investors.
Infrastructure, for example: Defi’s foundation, the oracle sector, TRB has risen 10 times from the bottom, and the oracle sector also includes LINK, API3, etc.
Another example is the RWA concept, one of the hottest topics this year. There are more infrastructure tokens, such as MKR, Polyx, TRU, and Link. In fact, many old DeFi coins can be associated with RWA, which is quite embarrassing. So I have never been very interested in the huge concept of RWA. Although I also attach importance to this matter, in terms of investment, I may feel that this direction is difficult to grasp. For RWA, I tend to look for some new coins with small market capitalization and more positive concepts. Polyx has risen well in the past two days.
5. Meme coins are the easiest sector in the cryptocurrency circle to get rich (with the greatest risk), the most fomo sector, and the least dependent on project parties (in fact, meme coins may not be better than project parties~); remember, in every bull market, Doge will reach new highs, and as long as BTC dares to reach new highs, Dogecoin will dare to turn on the ‘mad dog mode’
It is also the sector that relies least on fancy institutional backgrounds. It is rooted in the grassroots, and whoever wins the grassroots wins the world.
As for the investment logic of meme coins, I always believe that it is "centered on Lao Ma". Whether it is Long Yi Doge, Long Er Shib, or a bunch of big meme coins below, such as Baby Dog or Floki, they all rely on Lao Ma's traffic, because Lao Ma is indeed a totem of meme coins~
And Ma never talks about any technology coins (maybe he doesn't like them...), whether it's DeFi or BRC20, he never mentions them, or even likes them. As for meme coins, Ma supports Doge, and the whole world knows it~ Tesla also holds BTC, but BTC is actually a meme coin, which is another topic, so I won't expand on it for now. For meme coin investment, large funds are still recommended to invest in Doge.
We believe that the current market situation is not a big bull market, and the environment is not good enough, but in a bear market, such performance is enough, so there is no need to pursue a certain bottom. When you feel the market has cooled down, you can start to make arrangements. Trading is phased, and one of the four major cycles will not change. No matter how long this round lasts, the small bull market will still come before the halving in January-March next year!
Many people are confused about the current contracts and spot trading. Those who missed out are panicking about whether the price will continue to rise. Those who have already taken profits are very anxious. They dare not enter the market after the price has risen so much. Now the daily, weekly and monthly lines are all bullish, and there is still room for further increase, pointing directly to 39800-42180, but 36000-37300 is a strong shock zone, which is equivalent to 23500-25200. It takes a while to break through and stabilize before it can continue to rush to new highs. In the short term, it is necessary to confirm that the 31800-33000 area is stable, and there will be a demand for a step-back. Near the end of the month, it is basically sideways and oscillating. There will be a big drop next Thursday. If it reaches the 31000-31800 area, you can enter more and spot. The two weeks after November 2 may also rebound, and then pull back in the last week.
Since this wave of market is stimulated by information, we should take advantage of it and follow the trend. Stop loss must be set for short-term trading. If you want to do medium- and long-term trading, it is recommended to place 3-5 low-multiple orders and buy high and sell low. In fact, the price of mainstream altcoins is still very low for the bull market, and it has not risen much in the past week. When BTC falls back, add positions. Buy more when it falls sharply, buy less when it falls slightly, reduce positions when it rises sharply, and do not move when it rises slightly.
Finally, I wish everyone to become rich and achieve financial freedom as soon as possible!
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