A close election has never looked more tightly divided, with Harris’ popularity declining from its previous high and abortion atop voters’ issue list.
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are deadlocked in the latest national NBC News poll, with Trump bolstered by Republicans coming back home to support him after last month’s rough debate and a subsequent polling deficit, as well as by a favorable voter assessment of Trump’s term as president.
These are among the findings of a new survey released three weeks before Election Day, which also shows Harris’ popularity declining compared to a month ago, after she got a big summertime boost; a massive gender gap between support for Harris and Trump; and voters viewing abortion as a top motivating issue heading into the 2024 vote.
A deadlocked race, with a sliver of undecideds left
Harris and Trump each got 48% support from registered voters in the latest NBC News poll.
HarrisBidenDon't want to vote for either/other/not sureTrump
Notes: The poll was conducted Oct. 4-8 and surveyed 1,000 registered voters nationally. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Source: NBC News national poll
As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “The race is a dead heat.”
McInturff said “headwinds” for Harris have helped narrow the presidential contest, including concerns that the vice president doesn’t represent change from President Joe Biden and voters seeing Trump’s presidency in a more positive light than Biden’s.
“She is asking for another term from the incumbent party,” McInturff said of Harris.
Still, underlining the poll is uncertainty about the election (with 10% of voters saying they might change their minds and a sliver of unclaimed voters still on the fence), an all-time-high share of voters believing that this presidential election will make “a great deal of difference” in their lives, and key challenges for both Harris and Trump. The third-party vote could play a role, too — Trump gets a small boost when third-party candidates are included in the ballot test, to a 1-point edge.
And in a finely balanced election, even small changes in turnout among different groups could be the difference between a win and a loss for either party.
The challenge for Kamala Harris: Can she meet the moment and fill in the blanks that voters have about her?” asked Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.
“The challenge for Donald Trump: Can he make the case that the chaos and personal behavior that bothered so many about his first term will not get in the way of governing and representing America?” he added.
“The next month will tell whether the candidates can meet these challenges,” Horwitt said.
In the new poll — which was conducted Oct. 4-8 — Harris gets support from 48% of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump gets an identical 48%. Another 4% say they are undecided or wouldn’t vote for either option when forced to choose between those two major-party candidates.
That’s a change from September’s NBC News poll, which found Harris leading Trump by 5 points, 49%-44%, though that result was within the margin of error.
An expanded ballot including third-party candidates also shows this shift, with 47% of registered voters in the new poll picking Trump, 46% supporting Harris and a combined 7% picking other candidates or saying they’re undecided.
Other candidates move the ballot test only a little, but that might matter in a very close race
Notes: The poll was conducted Oct. 4-8 and surveyed 1,000 registered voters nationally. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
In September, however, Harris held a 6-point lead on this expanded ballot.
Given that close elections are often decided by which party better turns out its voters, the NBC News poll provides a snapshot of what could happen depending on different turnout scenarios.
Assuming a more favorable environment for Republicans — which means slightly greater turnout among men, white voters and voters without college degrees — Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 49%-47%.
But assuming a more favorable turnout environment for Democrats — which means more women, more white voters with college degrees and more voters of color showing up to the polls — these survey results show Harris leading Trump by 3 points among registered voters, 49%-46%.
All of these results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Harris’ popularity declines
Another significant change in the NBC News poll since September is Harris’ popularity.
One of the major developments in September’s NBC News poll, conducted after the Harris-Trump debate on Sept. 10, was her double-digit increase in popularity compared to earlier in the summer, before she became Democrats’ presidential candidate. Her ratings shot upward to 48% positive, 45% negative (a +3 net rating).
But in this latest poll, Harris’ rating stands at 43% positive, 49% negative (-6), with the erosion coming mainly from independents and young voters.
Voter sentiment about Kamala Harris declined after a steep rise
That’s not too far removed from Trump’s 43% positive, 51% negative score (-8) in this same poll. That positive rating is Trump’s highest in the NBC News poll since he left office.
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