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The autumn wind is howling, but it cannot blow away the political heat wave that is shrouding the United States. The 2024 U.S. presidential election, this quadrennial feast of democracy, is playing out a gripping plot, attracting the attention of hundreds of millions of people around the world. As the election campaign enters a white-hot stage, the two party candidates - incumbent President Trump and Democratic challenger Kamala Harris - are rushing to various places non-stop to launch the final sprint to win voter support.
Like two equally powerful currents, the campaigns of Trump and Harris are facing off in the most closely contested "swing states". These states, which hold the power of life and death over "electoral votes", have become the key battlefields that will determine the final direction of the election.
Recently, the data released by many polling agencies have caused ripples in the public opinion field, just like throwing a stone into a lake. What is quite surprising is that Trump's support rate in many "swing states" has quietly surpassed Kamala Harris, who had previously had the upper hand.
According to the latest statistics from the authoritative polling website RCP, Trump has taken the lead in six of the seven "swing states" that are considered "battlegrounds for strategists", and is only slightly behind Harris in Wisconsin.
Although the gap between the two sides is not that big in terms of data, often only 1%, for the US election that follows the "winner takes all" rule, even a slight advantage is enough to gain the upper hand in the final battle for electoral votes.
What is particularly striking is that in Pennsylvania, the most important "swing state", Trump's support rate has been steadily rising. Last week, he led Harris by only a slight advantage of 0.1%, and this week, the number has expanded to 0.4%. If this trend can be maintained, Trump will most likely win the electoral votes in Pennsylvania and lay a solid foundation for the final victory.
The dramatic reversal of the poll results has put the Democratic camp under increasing pressure. They were originally confident that they would win, but now they have to re-examine the election situation and adjust their strategic deployment.
At the same time, Harris's support rate across the country has also declined to a certain extent, from 21% ahead of Trump to 18%. This change has undoubtedly sounded the alarm for the Democratic Party, indicating that the uncertainty of the election is increasing.
What exactly caused Kamala Harris to face headwinds at a critical moment in the election? What factors allowed Trump to reverse the situation and regain the initiative?
Some analysts pointed out that Harris's disaster relief plan in response to the recent hurricane disaster in the southeastern coast of the United States has become the fuse for the fluctuation of her election situation. She promised to pay $750 in relief to each affected person, but this move was fiercely criticized by Trump.
Trump seized the opportunity to point the finger at Harris' Democratic Party, accusing it of favoritism by providing much higher subsidies to illegal immigrants than to disaster victims in the country. This argument has, to a certain extent, aroused dissatisfaction among some voters, who believe that the government has a "double standard" on disaster relief.
Trump himself played the role of a "victim" to the fullest in a recent campaign event. He was shot while giving a speech in Pennsylvania. Although he was safe and sound, he successfully won a lot of sympathy.
In "swing states", similar "unexpected events" can often have a subtle impact on voters' emotions and choices in a short period of time, thereby swaying the balance of the election.
In addition to the influence of external factors, Harris's own mistakes in campaign strategy are also an important reason for the decline in her support rate.
In the TV debate with Trump, although Harris's performance was remarkable and showed extraordinary style and strength, she made frequent mistakes in her public speeches afterwards, which made people doubt her ability.
In a speech on October 4, Harris repeatedly repeated "32 days" (there were still 32 days until the November 5 voting day). This abnormal behavior was interpreted by some media as a malfunction of the "teleprompter", which caused her to speak incoherently and became a topic of conversation among people.
What’s more fatal is that Harris has never been able to clearly explain her future policy agenda, especially in which aspects will continue the Biden administration’s policies and in which aspects will make adjustments. She has not given clear answers to these questions.
This policy ambiguity has confused and unsettled many voters, who are unable to judge where Harris will lead the United States if she is elected.
In a commentary, Politico magazine bluntly pointed out that Harris was overly cautious and lacked courage during the campaign, always trying to avoid controversy instead of actively stating her position, which made it difficult for her to win the trust of voters.
The article also cited a conversation between Harris and Biden during an interview on the (Viewpoint) program. When asked about her disagreement with Biden, Harris tried to avoid the question before saying that she would place a Republican in the cabinet.
Politico magazine believes that Harris's answer once again exposed her "cautious" personality traits. She always tries to find a compromise solution without telling anyone, but this is often interpreted as a lack of decisiveness and leadership in the political field.
History always repeats itself. In 2016, Hillary Clinton maintained a lead over Trump for most of the time, but when the election was approaching, she lost the opportunity due to the outbreak of the "email gate" incident.
The lessons of the past are still fresh in our minds. Now, there are less than three weeks left until the voting day of the 2024 US presidential election. Any unexpected events or any subtle variables may have unpredictable effects on the final result.
Faced with an increasingly stalemate in the election, Harris challenged Trump again and asked for a second televised debate, trying to reverse the situation at the last minute. However, Trump rejected the request with an arrogant attitude of "It's too late, I've already won."
It is still hard to predict who will win the election. This suspenseful US election will surely go down in history and become a political legend that people will talk about with relish.
Harris will not admit defeat easily. She knows that in the ever-changing political arena, no one dares to claim victory until the last moment. She actively adjusted her strategy and shifted the focus of her campaign to those "swing voters" who have not yet made a final decision.
In order to win more support, Harris frequently appeared in various public occasions, communicating with voters face to face in a more people-friendly manner, listening to their voices and understanding their demands. She no longer deliberately avoided controversial topics, but chose to face the problems head-on and respond to outside doubts with a frank attitude.
On economic issues, Harris promised to launch a series of policies that would benefit the middle class and the working class, increase employment opportunities, raise the minimum wage, and reduce people's living pressures. She also said that she would increase investment in education and medical care so that more people can enjoy high-quality public services.
On social issues, Harris firmly supports the rights of ethnic minorities, advocates strengthening gun control, and responding to climate change. She tries to attract the support of the younger generation and liberal voters with more inclusive and progressive ideas.
At the same time, Harris' campaign team has also stepped up its publicity efforts, posting a large number of videos and articles on social media to promote her policy proposals and shape her image as a people-friendly and capable person. They have also organized a large team of volunteers to carry out door-to-door publicity to win more voter support.
The challenges facing Kamala Harris are still severe. Although Trump is temporarily ahead in the polls, he still maintains a high sense of crisis. He knows that most of his supporters are "hardcore fans", while Kamala Harris's supporters are more diverse and more easily influenced by external factors.
Therefore, Trump did not relax his vigilance, but continued to take various measures to consolidate his advantages and suppress the momentum of his opponents. He frequently held campaign rallies and delivered impassioned speeches in front of thousands of supporters, attacking Harris' policies and exaggerating the vision of "making America great again."
Trump also made full use of his advantage as the incumbent president to mobilize government resources to canvass votes for himself. He frequently appeared in various official activities and used his political achievements as capital for the election. He also used his power to suppress his opponents and tried to create a favorable public opinion environment for himself.
Trump also received full support from within the Republican Party. The Republican-controlled Senate recently approved a new Supreme Court justice nomination, which was seen as a major victory for Trump and further consolidated the Republican base.
Faced with Trump's relentless pressure, Harris had no choice but to face the challenge head-on. She knew that this election campaign was not only about her personal success or failure, but also about the future direction of the United States.
If Trump represents a conservative and xenophobic force in American society, then Kamala Harris represents more open, inclusive and diverse values.
This election is a collision of two different philosophies and a choice between two different futures.
The final outcome will be decided by the American people.
But no matter what, this election will have a profound impact on American society.
It will determine the direction of the United States' development in the next four years and will also have a profound impact on the evolution of the world pattern.
In the coming days, the American people will continue to pay attention to this election of the century, observe the two candidates' every move, and think about what kind of future their votes will determine.
The whole world is also focusing its attention on this land full of hope and challenges, hoping that this election will bring more positive changes to human society.
This election is destined to go down in history and become an important footnote in the history of future generations.
And we, as witnesses of this era, will also remember this election, the people who fought for it, and the destinies that were changed by it.
The wheel of history rolls forward, and no one can stop it.
Let us wait and see, witness this election of the century, and witness history being made.
