After Bitcoin broke through 30,000 yesterday, many people asked me what I thought about the market and what would happen next. I provided strategies suitable for everyone's operations based on long-term and short-term operations. Of course, the market rose violently within expectations, but it also exceeded expectations a little. I thought it would be pretty good if it reached 32,000, but I didn't expect it to rise so sharply.

It broke through without stopping, without even a pullback. This also proves that the market is driven by capital, and all technology is inferior to capital.

Let's see how the market will go now.

Let’s review the external environment first.

1. Although the Fed denies it, the rate hike has essentially ended. Even if it raises the rate again, it will not have much impact. It is more likely that it will not raise the rate again. All hawkish remarks are expectation management.

2. The whole world is heavily in debt due to past easing cycles. Now facing the monetary tightening in the United States, major economies are suffering, including the United States itself.

3. Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying. There may be forces behind the scenes, but in the final analysis, everyone is still suffering. There may be more in the future.

From the past history, there will be a good rise in the process of the US stopping interest rate hikes and recession (crisis). We are currently in this period, and when recession comes, the risk market will inevitably fall. From the situation in the past two years, Bitcoin is still classified as a risky asset by capital, rather than relatively safe-haven assets such as gold.

As for whether the future recession will be a mild recession or like the Great Depression of 2008 or even 1929, it is not known yet. There is no need to guess, just wait for things to unfold naturally.

We just need to grasp the main theme of the rebound. This view has been mentioned many times before and has not changed.

As for the environment within the cryptocurrency circle, the only big narrative in the market right now is ETF. Passing is definitely good news, but news can be true or false, and we definitely can’t get first-hand information. Many times, by the time we see the news, the insider trading has already ended. So for this kind of news, we can either avoid it or bet with a stop loss.

Let’s go back to the board.

BTC is undoubtedly the big brother, with an extremely exaggerated rise, exceeding the increase in most currencies (there are some coins with no liquidity, which are not counted if the main force just pulls up or smashes them).

At present, BTC has strongly broken through the previous high, so we must go long once the top and bottom are reversed and it falls back to around 31800. Because the market is relatively hot, it may not fall back to where the funds that missed out on buying will start to rise, so we can start buying in batches around 32200, and the stop loss is set at 31500.

From a larger perspective, we can expect 37,000 to 39,000. As for how it will go and whether it can go higher, technical analysts are not fortune tellers, so we can only take it one step at a time.

ETH is obviously weaker than BTC, which is also a normal situation at the end of a bear market or the beginning of a bull market. Many project parties raised ETH in a bull market, but had no money to sell it at the end of a bear market. In addition, funds prefer safe BTC, so ETH will naturally be weak without an internal narrative. On the other hand, there are also many retail investors in ETH, and the number of institutional whales in BTC far exceeds that of ETH. The power of retail investors to pull the market is definitely not as strong as that of strong dealers.

The two supports, 1750 and 1650, are far apart, so you can only cover your position in batches. My view is still to buy BTC first, because the Cancun upgrade has not been determined yet, so there is no good narrative inside ETH.

It is possible that the profit-making funds of BTC will switch to ETH or altcoins next, but I think based on this logic, a stable configuration of BTC+altcoins will be better than ETH.

After talking about mainstream coins, let’s look at some altcoins

In general, once BTC stabilizes, profit-making funds will flow into the altcoin market, so the altcoin market may gain greater profits.

BNB's monthly line is still supported, but below it is a bottomless abyss. Linked to the market, I have repeatedly said that BNB is not a particularly good investment target this year, but it is optimistic in the long run. The pressure is around 250.

ARB, the trend line has been broken, but without the support of the Cancun upgrade, it is relatively weak and is being carried up. If BTC pulls back, this trend line may fall back. Do not participate for now

OP, like ARB, is slightly stronger. Both trend lines have been broken. It is not possible to get on the train for the time being. If it falls back to 1.26, you can participate in the long position.

MATIC, the trend line has been broken, which is relatively strong. The current support is around 0.595.

BLUR is trying to move to the bottom of an arc, and is currently suppressed. Let's see if it can break through. NFT has no signs of recovery yet, and this coin is volatile. If you want to participate, you should use unimportant funds to participate, and you can't bet heavily.

SOL, I mentioned this repeatedly in the previous market analysis, it is indeed very strong, breaking through the big triangle. Now we can only wait.

There are many other coins that are similar. Basically, most of the coins have broken through the downward trend, some are strong and some are weak. Because BTC has risen a lot, there is also a need for a correction from a technical point of view.

Since we are doing market analysis, I can't let you get rid of FOMO here. Overall, the bull market has not ended, and the main trend is to go long on the pullback. I tend to go long on the altcoin after BTC pulls back.

There are no suitable opportunities to enter the market today. I will continue to pay attention and share in the next few days.

Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the cryptocurrency circle to explore together. If you have any questions, you can comment or send a private message