When is a Bitcoin ETF more likely to pass?
Why do some people increasingly believe that a Bitcoin ETF is about to become a reality? This may be mainly related to the recent lawsuits in various crypto industries.
On July 13, the SEC and Ripple Labs case had different rulings. Judge Torres ruled that Ripple’s public sale of XRP to exchanges was not illegal, but its sale to institutions was. On October 3, Torres denied the SEC’s appeal. On October 19, the SEC dropped all charges against Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and co-founder Chris Larsen, canceling a trial scheduled for next year. The SEC stated in the filing: The SEC and Ripple will meet and agree on a possible briefing schedule on the remaining issues in this case – Ripple’s institutional sales of Propose that schedule and, if the parties cannot agree, seek a briefing schedule from the court.
In August 2023, a three-judge appellate panel in Washington overturned the SEC's decision to block the Grayscale ETF, court documents show. The court stated that "the rejection of Grayscale's proposal is arbitrary and capricious because the SEC failed to explain the different treatment of similar products." Subsequently, Grayscale issued a statement in response to the US SEC's decision not to seek an appeal, saying: "The Grayscale team has prepared Ready, once approved by the SEC, GBTC will be converted into ETF." On October 19, Grayscale posted on the X platform: "We submitted the S-3 form as part of the effort to convert GBTC into ETF. We have been We are committed to working closely with the SEC to quickly handle relevant matters for GBTC investors." Coinglass data shows that the current negative premium rate of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has further narrowed to 12.56%. Judging from the data, the market is generally optimistic about the conversion of GBTC to BTC spot ETF.
Stimulated by a series of good news, the market's optimism has been obviously stimulated. Crypto investor @scottmelker tweeted: JPMorgan analysts predict that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs in the coming months, possibly with the final filing of Ark 21Shares on January 10 before the deadline. The SEC decided not to appeal the recent ruling, and Grayscale’s case adds to optimism as Grayscale manages the world’s largest cryptocurrency fund. ETFs are cheaper to trade than actual cryptocurrencies, potentially attracting a wave of mainstream investment into the crypto market. JPMorgan also suggested the SEC might approve multiple applications simultaneously to promote competition and potentially lower ETF fees. This will also put pressure on existing funds such as Grayscale to reduce fees.
However, all is not without variables. Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, wrote on the Therefore, even if Grayscale GBTC wins, the SEC controls its fate to a certain extent.
