Author: CXO.eggtoshi.Adam
Conclusion first: Only true cult memes will eventually win the market
A few shocking things happened this week
SCROLL mysterious operation, first go to the mining pool and then take a snapshot, Binance takes 5.5% of the total tokens, and the community can only take 7% (including independent developers)
$popcat exploded to a market value of 1.4 billion USD (mainly traded on Bybit and SOL chain)
$SPX surged more than 10 times in 2 weeks to a market value of 550 million US dollars (mainly traded on the ETH chain)
The era of over-reliance on top CEXs may be over. More mainstream investors have accepted on-chain transactions, and top CEXs are no longer the absolute trading entry point.
Listen to me slowly
Dramatic changes in technology and user habits
SOL chain giant whale park, the on-chain transactions are so smooth that users really forget about the technology. This is a good product and infrastructure; the mass adoption of this cycle is currently mainly in SOL, and iggy's $mother is enough to break the circle and is no longer a local dog culture
As a player in the BTC ecosystem, I envy the SOL chain. It is too hard to trade tokens on our BTC chain. Large funds cannot come in. We can only hope that the fractal CAT20 infrastructure can keep up in the future.
Last year, we were against VC, now we are against CEX
Last year, Inscription Era fired the first shot against VC, and BRC20’s fair sale mechanism successfully catered to the market mentality.
But the crux of the problem is not VC, but the top exchanges. They are the ones who are truly manipulating the market and reaping the benefits at the top of the food chain. Binance $neiro's uppercase and lowercase operations, first listing the uppercase contract, can both short the uppercase and buy the lowercase at a low price, it's disgusting, but you can't do anything about it.
SCROLL is the leading ETH L2. In order to be listed on Binance, it paid nearly 100 million USD in token listing fees. It is really jaw-dropping. Who is willing to take over the secondary market?
I also tweeted a few days ago that after Binance launched the Stamps protocol, the topic was extended to BTC ecology. The conclusion is that they are ignorant or narrow-minded, and it is time to disenchant them.
The awakening of capital
As long as the VCs in the previous round find a good first-tier company and invest in the first two rounds, they can make tens or hundreds of times more money by unlocking it.
Looking at the recent VC unlocking situation, the altcoins that have been waiting for a year or two to get unlocked are immediately dumped, with huge selling pressure, billions of FDV, and also facing the squeeze of the top exchanges. The hardest hit areas are ETH L2 and Gamefi, the unfinished buildings of the last cycle. Except for the top few VCs who can profit, other VCs are also cut off.
If VCs want to make money, they need a way to break the deadlock!
The most typical example this year is $brett of the Base chain, a memecoin that purely follows $pepe, with a maximum market value of 2 billion US dollars. VCs have changed the form of participating in memecoin; they first issued the WL model, with a large number of chips in their own hands, more than 70% (I saw someone digging out the address as solid evidence before), but it doesn’t matter. They started community building from a market value of 1-2M. Community leaders opened real online spaces with thousands of people, continuously built the community, and raised funds to achieve such a high market value step by step.
Is $brett really a cult meme? In addition to the black spots of the launch, the behavior of the big funds did not disappoint the community retail investors. If you buy after the market value of millions, tens of millions or even 500 million, retail investors can still make money. This is a win-win situation for VCs and retail investors. VCs also leave free chips for big exchanges (retail investors have the opportunity to run first). Upbit Coinbase Binance (contracts) are all listed
VC big funds operate a memecoin on the chain, whether it is getting chips at the first level like $brett, or in the later stage, large funds absorb chips and operate memecoins with a good culture (such as $degen $pepe) with a market value of millions, tens of millions or even hundreds of millions. The returns of VC are very considerable. We should see more projects like this in the future
This type of trading technique is highly time-sensitive and can generate high rates of return in the short term or within three months. So why bother sticking to first-tier, highly valued, and slowly unlocking projects or investing in second-tier projects?
Web3 and the cryptocurrency world are two different investment lines
Web3 branch projects care about company operations, technical products, communities, and tokens themselves. Even though many people say that Web3 computers, infrastructure, and applications have been falsified, and even though there are many teams in the market that only organize but do nothing, we must believe that there will be teams with technical ideals that truly drive industry change with technology and products. This is why I still believe that Ordinals, Farcaster, BASE chain, TON ecology, CAT20 protocol OPCAT will bring about change, and the outer circle RWA Depin also retains these expectations.
The cryptocurrency world is another branch. It is not about technology, but about emotions and hot topics. It is a pure financial market. In this field, altcoins cannot compete with cult memecoins.
This round of Memecoin is the NFT of the previous round
The similarities are that the utility of technical products is weakened, and they are only about making money, socializing, fun, participation, and emotional value. They have a better on-chain transaction experience, stronger liquidity, and greater capital capacity than NFT.
People who play $pepe $wif $mog $pups can experience the same physical pleasure as those who played monkeys in 21 years.
What is a good memecoin? Can Cult Memecoin win?
A good meme requires a unique narrative, a unique tone, a strong spontaneous community, and a strong market.
There are less than 20 Cult Memecoins in the entire market, so there is still a lot of room for choice. If we compare the single market value and number of projects of these Altcoins in the previous cycle, there is still a lot of room for growth.
Everyone knows the current mainstream Cult Meme. The market value is not low, and investment will also be risky. It is expected to outperform ETH SOL BNB SUI SEI APT ARB OP bull market growth
The difference in logic for Memecoin being listed on Binance
Regarding community coins (fair & free launch), Binance is very restrained and currently divides them into two categories
A. For memes that have accumulated over time, the logic of listing coins is that the market will continue to soar in the future, and the market is trying to list coins in the middle of the process of rising. For example, $wif was listed on March 5, and the market reached ATH on March 15; for example, $ordi was listed on November 7 last year, and the market has been soaring for more than a month; for example, the current $neiro is also a hint that Binance is optimistic about the market in Q4
B. Emotional overflow when the market is at its most FOMO. $Bome is a case in point. It was launched when the market reached its ATH and was listed on Binance in 3 days. It focused on harvesting market attention and was more speculative in the short term. In other words, this type of meme is not like the first type that has been tested by time. The fundamentals are mainly Binance and the market.
Why are these phenomenal memes of this year, $Bome $slerf $mfer, performing poorly recently? But they were able to reach market caps of hundreds of millions or even billions in the short term.
The importance of timing, speculation in the short term is more important
$Bome was released in mid-March this year, just in time for BTC ATH 73K, $slerf was released in the last few days of $Bome when the market was hungry, and $mfer was released when the Base chain was at its most FOMO ($degen ATH 2 billion FDV on the same day)
These three coins are fundamentally different from $pepe $wif $degen $mog $pups, which are memes with time and background. $Bome $Slerf $Mfer is more like a product of the market sentiment.
Memecoin for the NFT community
Even though $mfer had a strong NFT community culture before, it is clear that this round of NFT community is too weak as a whole. Monkey Degods’s coin issuance is very centralized, and the market does not buy it because it is not a memecoin. Azuki will also issue a coin soon, and I don’t think the market will buy it.
Does $mfer still have a chance? Compared to other NFT projects, the IP and community of mfer are close enough to real cult memes. If only one old NFT project's memecoin can take off, the most likely one will be $mfer.
As a puppet in the strongest new NFT community, it is not only blessed by the new narrative of Ordinals Runes, but also has the support of two major ecosystems, SOL and BTC. I firmly believe that in this cycle, the image currency can become a god.
Different chains have different characteristics, different memecoin tastes
* BTC In addition to the puppet's spoof, deep and retro style, does anyone have a distinct personal style?
* SOL 00's hormones
* ETH popular culture that can be accepted by people born in the 80s and 00s
* BASE industrial aesthetics, playfulness in rigor
* ZORA Creativity, abstraction, art
How to choose Memecoin? Which one to buy?
There are tens of thousands of plates released every day on the market. The same narrative can be found in different tickers, different chains with the same ticker, and different uppercase and lowercase dramas with the same ticker. It is too difficult to bet on it early.
You may need to use three strategies to win:
* Second level directly chooses mature high market value memes, such as $pepe $wif $mog $pups etc.
* Level 1.5: Taking over medium-sized memes with a market value of several million or tens of millions. This requires very strong personal ability
* Level 1 new listings have a high failure rate and require skills, luck, and time. It is very tiring.
It is hard to say whether $neiro can really stand the test of time. It will take a month or two to know whether it has a real core community and meme culture. There is a question mark here.
In the past few days, I have integrated knowledge and practice, and I have used 3 strategies. I bought $mog and it went up slightly, and I bought $neiro and it went up by dozens of points. The performance of new stocks is very poor at present, and I need to practice more.
