Public data from cryptocurrency exchanges indicates that capital has been leaving the market over the past month. This trend could affect the short-term momentum of market prices.
Bitcoin may not see a huge rally in October, but investor expectations for the fourth quarter remain quite positive.
Most exchanges record capital outflows
Defillama’s CEX Transparency data tracks inflows and outflows from public wallet addresses across multiple exchanges, allowing investors to monitor capital movements. The data shows that 9 out of 10 monitored exchanges reported negative inflows in the last month.
The total funds that flowed out of these 10 exchanges reached over $2.68 billion, including both altcoins and stablecoins.
Read more: What is Coinbase and how did it become one of the largest exchanges in the world?
CEX Transparency. Fonte: DefiLlama
When cross-referencing this with Nansen’s data, it is possible to assess how much stablecoin liquidity has left exchanges in the last month. The data indicates that stablecoin balances on exchanges have decreased dramatically from $38.5 billion to $35 billion, representing a drop of $3.5 billion.
Stablecoin Flow on Exchanges. Source: Nansen
Thus, the majority of exchange outflows over the past month have been in the form of stablecoins. Typically, stablecoins entering exchanges are seen as a sign of potential buying pressure.
However, when stablecoins exit, the cryptocurrency market lacks momentum for upward price movements, signaling that investors are not ready to add to their portfolios.
BlackRock makes second major withdrawal in 2024
BlackRock now owns over 340,000 BTC. The financial giant’s stock is closely watched as it reflects the expectations of institutional investors.
CryptoQuant data shows that an on-chain address linked to BlackRock’s ETF had 256 BTC withdrawn, marking the second-largest withdrawal on record. The chart illustrates that BlackRock’s accumulation has slowed compared to early 2024.
Blackrock Balance Change. Source: CryptoQuant
BlackRock rarely makes withdrawals, with the last major withdrawal occurring in May when Bitcoin fell below $60,000. This slowdown in accumulation and the recent withdrawal could raise concerns among retail investors.
Furthermore, Coinglass’ ETF Net Inflows data also reveals that in the first five trading days of October, three days saw negative inflows. This indicates caution among Bitcoin ETF investors in October.
Read more: What is a Bitcoin ETF?
If stablecoin withdrawals continue and Bitcoin ETF balances continue to decline, the crypto market may not see significant gains in October. However, many analysts still predict a positive fourth quarter for Bitcoin.
“Most of ‘Uptober’ doesn’t start until after the 19th. Be patient,” said investor Timothy Peterson.
Thus, when observing past price behavior, investor Peterson notes that Bitcoin tends to begin a recovery at the end of the month.
The article Brokers record outflow of US$ 2.68 billion in September was seen for the first time on BeInCrypto Brasil.
