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Today we are going to talk about the price trend of ETH. At the beginning of October, the monthly line was closed. From this perspective, ETH's closing was very bad.
When it comes to the medium and long term cycle, we must pay attention to two important indicators, KDJ and MACD. From the perspective of the long and medium term, the KDJ indicator will have greater guiding significance. At present, its J line trend has reached a relatively low area. The last time it came to this position was in April 22, that is, its price was above the 30-month moving average, so the corresponding price was around 3,000 US dollars. At this time, the dead cross of the May line and the October line had just been formed, which was of course an early stage of the bear market. After falling for two consecutive months, it began to bottom out, and then it consolidated for more than half a year.
The closing price of ETH's monthly level, it reaches the J line near this position, and crosses below, the corresponding K line is on this K line. So this K line is currently the K line of October, which is supported by the 30-month moving average. Therefore, whether this position can hold is also critical. If this place is broken, it means that it will continue to go down, or even go two or three K lines, just like in April of 22 years. Of course, it broke the 30-month moving average in May, so can it break in October? In fact, we don't know. Because at the position of the 30-month moving average, there is of course a large support.
Even if we don’t look at it from the perspective of the moving average, we can only look at the K-line. In February of 24, this long positive line at the monthly level had its lowest opening price at $2,260. ETH still closed above $2,260 this time and did not fall below it.
So is there a possibility that it will reverse upward at this position? That is, will it start to reverse upward at 2260? If there is such a possibility, then the corresponding MACD indicator, this dead cross, should turn upward. In the last bear market, it only appeared at this position. So, will history repeat itself? Of course not, will it repeat itself? It may repeat itself.
However, the historical trend is only a reference and is not suitable for the current trend. Any historical market trend is caused by the environment at that time. Therefore, the monthly line dead cross at the stage of the Fed's interest rate cut is different from the dead cross at the stage of the Fed's interest rate hike in the bear market in 2022.
So, is it possible that the price of ETH will start to turn upward at this position this time? Of course, this is what we expect. It must hold the position of 2260. If it fails, it will definitely be difficult to deal with. Therefore, we must be cautious in controlling our positions. My opinion is 30-60%.
As for ETH, we focus on 2260. Because its May and October lines also cross. So, if it can stabilize at this position or break through 2840, then ETH will also reverse upward at this point. Therefore, there are two key points, one is the support of 2260, and the other is the pressure of 2840. Any breakthrough on either side will follow the trend and run in its original direction.
From the weekly chart level, we also see that its KDJ indicator has a golden cross, but there is no golden cross on MACD. So here its 30-week moving average indicator is going down. So this position is 2840. Just now we mentioned that the key is that its weekly closing line is engulfing, so ETH is abnormally weak. If you are heavily invested in ETH, then it will be relatively painful now. If you think it is painful, you can think about the cost of Justin Sun's ETH is between 3,000 and 3,500 US dollars, so when will he be untied? Who knows?
At the current weekly level, ETH is in a double top structure, this is one top, this is the second top, and this is the neckline. So, what will happen if this neckline is broken? It will become an important key point to determine the future trend of ETH.
Some people say that we should look at the price of BTC. Of course, ETH cannot play a decisive role in the market. What is more important? We still have to see how BTC will trend in the future.
Back to the daily level, ETH closed with a K-line like this yesterday, which is very weak. There is a lot of selling pressure from above. Where did the money go? At least not here. So, now everyone is more of a wait-and-see attitude, which is relatively wise. So at this stage, you should hold a part of the position, not a heavy position. So when should you hold a heavy position? We just mentioned that we need to look at the price of BTC. So what is the standard of BTC, under what circumstances can we meet the standard we expect and then form a heavy position configuration?
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