Strong economic data, sudden change in market direction! Trump rises again?

According to the analysis of Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, the US economic data in October was strong, and the market's expectations for the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on November 8 have also changed dramatically. At present, the market's probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has reached 85%, while the probability of no rate cut is only 15%, which is a significant drop compared with last month.

More interestingly, Trump has emerged again, and the probability of predicting his election as president is rising, and the US election on November 5 seems to be leaning towards him. The market's response to the upcoming election and the Fed's decision is particularly cautious.

Judging from the options data, the market's expectations for volatility in October are low, and the at-the-money implied volatility (IV) has dropped to 45%, while the at-the-money IV due on November 8, a week later, has soared to 55%. This shows that the vast majority of market participants are keeping a wait-and-see attitude towards the trend this month, and cautious investment has become the mainstream sentiment.

In such a market environment, investors need to have a forward-looking vision and flexible strategies. Does Trump's return and the strong performance of economic data mean that we are about to usher in a new market trend? Let's wait and see.

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