"Is the team working = currency price growth?" Looking at the performance of crypto innovations in the past ten years from code data

Quantitative institutions LUCIDA & FALCON wrote an article to explore the relationship between "the team is doing something" (measured by activity in the code database Github) and "cryptocurrency prices". LUCIDA & FALCON comparatively analyzed three different bull and bear cycles to quantify the correlation between Github factors and prices.

Is the team working = currency price growth?

The main findings and conclusions include:

1. The cryptocurrency market has experienced multiple bull and bear cycles, including the ICO era, public chain explosion, Defi Summer and NFT wave, etc.

2. Github's six factors used to measure "the team is doing something" include: Star (popularity of the code base), Fork (number of code derivative versions), Commit (number of code changes), Issues (reporting errors and improvement suggestions), Pull requests (requests from developers to merge development results into the main code base) and Watchers (watch the number of code bases).

3. In the first round of bear market, the five factors of Github data (except Commit) all showed positive correlation with currency prices.

4. In the second round of the bull market, the correlation between the six Github factors and the currency price increased significantly, and they were all positively correlated with the currency price.

5. In the second round of bear market, although the Github factor is still positively correlated with currency prices, its intensity is slightly lower than that of the bull market.

6. The correlation between Github data and currency prices is significantly higher in bull markets than in bear markets.

7. From an investment perspective, investing in projects with active Github development may bring better returns, while avoiding investing in projects with inactive Github development.

Generally speaking, Github's activity shows a positive correlation with the price of cryptocurrency. Especially in a bull market, projects with more active Github may have higher gains. But in a bear market, although Github's active projects are relatively more resilient, their influence is relatively limited.

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This article "Is the team doing something good = currency price growth?" Looking at the performance of new crypto startups in the past ten years from code data first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.