Only those who have never experienced war yearn for war.

加密任浮图 · 2023-10-18T15:12:19.000Z

If a new round of war in the Middle East breaks out, it may be more complicated than the Russia-Ukraine war. So what impact will this have on Bitcoin? 1. The safe-haven property of Bitcoin is not obvious. When the Russia-Ukraine war started, global risk assets fell, and cryptocurrencies were not spared. Therefore, at present, the safe-haven property of Bitcoin is not obvious, at least far inferior to gold. 2. War will increase the use of cryptocurrency. War will inevitably impose sanctions on a certain party, and cryptocurrency often becomes a settlement tool to break sanctions. 3. Cryptocurrencies are gaining popularity faster. Wars are often accompanied by the depreciation or instability of domestic legal currencies. The application of cryptocurrencies, such as stablecoins, can at least maintain their value. According to a recent survey by Statista, Russia’s cryptocurrency usage rate will be in 2023. rose to 14%. 4. Changes in policy After the Russo-Ukrainian war, Russia has significantly relaxed its control over cryptocurrency. For example, Russia plans to legalize cryptocurrency mining in 2024. On the other hand, the United States is strengthening its supervision. 5. Global inflation or economic recession. War has always affected the whole world. The Middle East is equivalent to the world's oil depot. The beginning of every war is accompanied by an increase in energy prices, which will undoubtedly push up inflation. Inflation caused the U.S. dollar index to rise, U.S. stocks to fall, and Bitcoin to fluctuate. It has to be said that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the end of the year has increased again. 6. Emotionally, the Palestinian-Israeli war is more like a conflict between two civilizations, so it will be more complex, protracted, and difficult to resolve than the Russia-Ukraine war. For investment, the more complicated the situation, the heavier the risk aversion, which is not conducive to risky markets such as Bitcoin.

If a new round of Middle East war breaks out, it may be more complicated than the Russia-Ukraine war. What impact will this have on Bitcoin?
1. Bitcoin’s safe-haven properties are not obvious
When the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, global risk assets fell, and cryptocurrencies were not spared. So at present, Bitcoin's safe-haven properties are not obvious, at least far inferior to gold.
2. War will increase the use of cryptocurrencies
War inevitably leads to sanctions against one party, and cryptocurrencies often become a settlement tool to break through sanctions.
3. Cryptocurrency is gaining popularity faster
War is often accompanied by the depreciation or instability of the country's legal currency. The use of cryptocurrencies such as stablecoins can at least maintain value. According to a recent survey by Statista, the usage rate of cryptocurrencies in Russia rose to 14% in 2023.
4. Policy Changes
After the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia has clearly relaxed its control over cryptocurrencies. For example, Russia plans to legalize cryptocurrency mining in 2024. On the other hand, the United States is strengthening its supervision.
5. Global inflation or recession
Wars always affect the whole body. The Middle East is equivalent to the world's oil depot. Every time a war starts, it is accompanied by a rise in energy prices, which will undoubtedly push up inflation. Inflation causes the US dollar index to rise, US stocks to fall, and Bitcoin to fluctuate. It has to be said that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the end of the year has increased again.
6. Emotionally
The Israeli-Palestinian war is more like a conflict between two civilizations, so it will be more complicated, lasting and difficult to resolve than the Russian-Ukrainian war. For investment, the more complicated the situation, the heavier the risk aversion sentiment, which is not conducive to risk markets such as Bitcoin.