With less than two months until the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the entry of Vice President Kamala Harris has upended market predictions that Donald Trump would win comfortably and reignited the debate over whose victory would be better for cryptocurrencies.
Overall, the consensus leans heavily towards Trump being more favorable for Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto industry. He has vowed to turn the United States into the “crypto capital of the earth” and make Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset, but the question on many investors’ minds is: how will BTC perform if Trump or Harris wins?
Kitco Crypto reached out to experts in the field to get their views, and similar to the consensus that Trump will be better for the industry, most believe that Bitcoin will have a more significant impact, at least initially, if Trump is re-elected room for upside, but in the long run, no matter who wins, BTC is expected to rise.
“The consensus view is that a Trump win is very bullish for Bitcoin, while a Harris win is very bearish,” said Steven Lubka, head of Swan Private at Swan Bitcoin. “While I agree that a Trump win would be an immediate boost to Bitcoin, the negative expectations for a Harris presidency are greatly exaggerated.”
“Harris is unlikely to gain the political consensus to take substantive hostile actions against Bitcoin, and her administration would engage in high levels of deficit spending, which is the only factor that is truly relevant to Bitcoin’s long-term performance,” Lubka said. “While I could certainly expect news of a Harris win to cause Bitcoin to sell off in the short term, it is unlikely to be a long-term drag on Bitcoin’s price.”
Matteo Pellegrini, founder and CEO of Orange Pill, said: "If Trump wins, the United States will have the first pro-Bitcoin, pro-cryptocurrency president in history. Combined with interest rate cuts and Bitcoin's four-year cycle, this could create a perfect storm for Bitcoin to surge to $120,000 before Inauguration Day."
“On the other hand, a victory for Kamala Harris could lead to a short-term price drop,” he added. “However, in the long run, a Harris presidency, which requires massive money printing, would create a huge tailwind for Bitcoin, driving its value significantly higher during her administration.”
Oliver Linch, CEO of Bittrex Global, said the Republican Party appears to be more welcoming to the unfolding digital revolution, which means Bitcoin will perform better under the Trump administration.
“They will soon realize that passion for technology and innovation, of which cryptocurrencies are a key component, presents a great opportunity to appeal to the elusive 18-30 year old voter group,” he told Kitco Crypto. “This comes at a time when the digital asset industry is increasingly frustrated with the policies of the current administration.”
He noted: “While cryptocurrency is inherently nonpartisan, it has found a perhaps unexpected champion in former President Trump, whose vocal support stands in stark contrast to the Biden administration’s apparent indifference, even antipathy.”
