We will entertain a radical idea on this analysis but one that may very well turn true in the future based on the Money Flow Index (MFI) indicator.
You are seeing Bitcoin on the 1W time-frame. The MFI appears to be repeating a sequence since December 2017 that was seen from June 2011 all through to 2017. This suggests that currently Bitcoin may be experiencing its only every 2nd Cycle, a Hyper Cycle against traditional charting. The 2022 Bear Cycle may only be a corrective phase (red) similar to that of 2014, the end of which gave way to the Bull Phase (green) of 2016/2017.
The latter, compared to the 1st Bull Phase (blue) ended on the 0.936 Fibonacci extension, so the two phases were roughly similar in duration. If the same analogy holds on (the current) Hyper Cycle 2, then we can expect the new 2nd Bull Phase (green) to end around June 2026.
In terms of growth, Hyper Cycle 1 had two clear highs, the Bear Phase topping on the 2.382 Fib extension, while the 2nd Bull Phase topped on the 3.382 Fib extension. So far on Hyper Cycle 2, we have the Bear Phase topping on the 1.618 Fib. If this Cycle is proportionally similar to Hyper Cycle 2, we could see the new Bull Phase top on the 2.618 Fib, i.e. over $400k. Radical indeed but even a 'mere' 2.0 Fib extension would place the top around $130k.
In any case, are you still deeming the current price too expensive for a long-term buy?
