SEC approves BTC ETF options = basically say goodbye to the big crash?
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved asset management giant BlackRock to list and trade options on a Bitcoin spot ETF on the Nasdaq under the ticker “IBIT.”
Investors can increase their investment exposure to Bitcoin at a lower cost by purchasing IBIT options, and conduct risk hedging or speculative trading in a more flexible manner.
This may attract more investors into the market and increase market liquidity, which is a long-term positive for the crypto market.
In short, this passage will bring about the following changes:
Changes in the U.S. stock market: When encountering a black swan event or market panic, investors no longer need to directly sell ETFs for risk hedging. Instead, they can hedge risks by buying put options, thereby increasing market liquidity and alleviating market selling pressure to a certain extent.
A breakthrough in the crypto market: This development is a major leap forward for the crypto market, and its impact is no less than the launch of contract trading by exchanges. Originally, the market only had spot trading, but now, by introducing better hedging tools, BTC has officially become a long-short tradable commodity in the regulated market.
Simplification of complexity: Previously, options trading platforms like Deribit were too complex to be widely used, and CME futures also required more active management (such as frequent market monitoring). In contrast, the new regulated Bitcoin market will significantly increase liquidity, meaning that Bitcoin’s notional exposure (option face value) will significantly expand, thereby enhancing leverage and liquidity.
Future ETF Development: With this launch, future ETFs that double or triple long Bitcoin are also expected to be approved faster, bringing more investment tools to the market.
Reduced volatility: Due to the constraints of the regulated market, the sharp fluctuations of Bitcoin may be suppressed in the future, and investors no longer have to worry too much about the risk of a large-scale market crash.
Bitcoin hits 64,000
Reviewing yesterday's market, BTC fell back after hitting a high of 64,000 US dollars. After the opening of the US stock market in the evening, it directly fell below 63,000. At 2 am, it received support near 62,350 and rebounded. The current market is consolidating around 63,000.
During the weekend, institutions are closed and the crypto market will continue to fluctuate sideways, with Ethereum fluctuating around $2,550.
From the technical indicators, Bitcoin is very strong, with a big positive line breaking through multiple moving averages, which is a strong bullish signal. Historically, after the "one through three" pattern appears, the market usually reverses.
Moreover, this rise was also accompanied by a large volume increase, with market trading volume doubling from US$37 billion last month to US$80 billion.
A sudden increase in volume often signals a possible market reversal.
However, we still need to continue to observe the performance of U.S. stocks on Monday.
The last time the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points was in March 2020, after which Bitcoin’s maximum increase was more than 10 times
According to statistics, the last time the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points was in March 2020, when it cut interest rates by 1 percentage point to 0-0.25% in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since March 2022, the Fed has launched an almost unprecedented round of aggressive interest rate hikes, and has maintained the policy interest rate at a high level of 5.25%-5.5% since July 2023.
After the interest rate cut in 2020, Bitcoin started to rise from the price range of US$4,000 to US$6,000 after "3.12", and reached the high of the last bull market at US$69,040 in November 2021, with the maximum increase of more than 10 times.
During the same period, the price of gold started to rise in the range of $1,450 to $1,700 in March, peaking ahead of Bitcoin, reaching a high of $2,075 in August 2020 before falling back, and started a new round of increases after reaching the bottom of $1,616 in November 2022 until now.
$CATI soared to $1.12 and then fell back. Will Catizen replicate the historical trajectory of Notcoin and DOGS?
The Telegram mini-game Catizen (CATI) based on the dark horse public chain TON was officially launched on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges such as Binance and OKX last night (20). The price reached a peak of $1.12 at 9 o'clock last night, and FDV once broke the $1 billion mark.
However, selling pressure emerged later, with the lowest point reaching US$0.81 at around 4:00 this morning (21st). Before writing, CATI was temporarily trading at US$0.96.
Performance of Notcoin and DOGS after listing on exchanges
CATI is the third TG game project based on the TON ecosystem to be listed on multiple mainstream exchanges after Notcoin and DOGS, and its future trend has attracted much attention from investors.
Next, we will review the price performance of Notcoin and DOGS after they were listed, which may provide some potential clues for judging the future of CATI.
Notcoin
Notcoin was officially listed on 18 cryptocurrency exchanges including Binance, OKX, Bybit, etc. on May 16 this year. It fluctuated downward within a week of its launch, and then quickly rose, setting an all-time high of $0.029431 on June 3.
It then began to fluctuate downward and currently seems to be bottoming out at the $0.0077 level. It remains to be seen whether it will break through the downward trend line.
NOT trend. Image source: OKX
DOGS
DOGS was launched on August 26, and its trend is somewhat similar to that of NOT. It also experienced low-level fluctuations shortly after its launch, and then quickly rose to a historical high (US$0.0016570 on August 28), and then fluctuated downward, but the decline was more severe.
DOGS trend. Source: OKX
From the above, we can see that the basic trend of Notcoin is quite close to that of DOGS. The specific trend changes are as follows:
After the token was launched, it fluctuated violently in the short term and basically showed a downward trend. It is speculated that this may be due to the large number of users who received the airdrop, resulting in short-term selling pressure, which led to the decline in the coin price;
Usually, soon after going online, the token will rise rapidly and hit a new historical high;
After setting a record high, perhaps as the popularity decreases and subsequent similar TG mini-games are launched to absorb liquidity, the token will gradually decline.
HOW MANY
However, whether the price trend of the newly listed CATI coin will be close to the history of Notcoin and DOGS remains to be observed. After all, Catizen's game design is more sophisticated than the above two predecessors, and it has launched its own game center.
After the first issuance of tokens, it will be worth our continued attention whether Catizen can continue to provide more empowerment for CATI.
Previously, CATIZEN announced the subsequent profit channels for CATI holders. The relevant token application scenarios are as follows:
Profit sharing of the mini-game center: self-developed games contribute 100%, third-party games contribute 30%, and all players will share all the revenue rebates of the mini-game center.
Pledge assets to get other token airdrops: Users who pledge CATI tokens will continue to receive token airdrops of these games. The combination of staking income and cash flow repurchase will drive the value of CATI tokens up, and the traffic and wealth effect brought by this increase, combined with the user growth strategy, will help Catizen attract more traffic, promote more consumption, and attract more first-party and third-party game cooperation.
In addition to the game center, Catizen plans to use existing traffic to launch on-chain trading products based on Telegram to meet more user needs and expand revenue sources. The first product is an option agreement that allows users to buy 1 Bitcoin for $10 and is scheduled to go online in the third quarter of 2024. The revenue generated by the agreement will be used to repurchase CATI tokens, further increase the value of the tokens, and consolidate our ecosystem advantages.
In addition to the profit channel and appreciation of $CATI, $CATI will be used as a governance token, allowing users to vote for games that are prioritized for listing on Catizen Game Center; screening high-quality projects into the Staking Launchpool, so that users can obtain better returns.
