Before a rate cut, especially as the time gets closer, more funds are withdrawn from risky markets.
For example, regardless of the coupon rate, the yield on medium- and long-term US Treasury bonds has dropped from a peak of 4.5-5% to 3.5%-4% today. If the official announcement of a rate cut is made, or even a series of rate cuts begins, the actual yield will naturally go down, which will be reflected in the increase in the price of the bonds themselves.
The idea that there may be some money in the market is:
Now is probably the last window to increase holdings of U.S. Treasuries. You can lock in 4% of U.S. dollars for 10 or even 30 years, and the interest rate is still very attractive.
Then these funds can only withdraw from the risky market during this time window (August-September), causing the darkness before dawn in the market.
The interest rate cut is a milestone event. Before the cut, there was no sense of urgency, and everyone was thinking about making a profit in the risk market. When the interest rate cut was approaching, people began to have the mentality of "hurrying up to catch the last bus".
Therefore, as the interest rate cut approaches, instead of the imagined price-in increase effect, we will feel that liquidity is constantly decreasing.
By the time the official announcement of the rate cut came, all the funds that were supposed to leave had already left. Those who stayed behind were obviously waiting for the party to begin.
Of course, investors in the crypto market seem to have very different risk preferences from U.S. bond investors, and their user profiles may not match, so this is an unproven idea. #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？ #比特币行情 #BTC☀ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥
