Someone asked if there is still a bull market dividend in the cryptocurrency circle?
A: I think there will be at least one more bull market. The reason for the bull market is the improvement of the capital side and the imbalance of supply and demand. The next bull market will be triggered by the approval of spot ETFs. According to Bloomberg analysis, the probability of spot ETFs being approved this year is 75%, and the probability of being approved next year is 95%.
Review of Bitcoin's previous bull markets:
In the bull market of 2013, hot money was involved in speculation;
In the bull market of 2017, countries such as Germany and Japan legalized Bitcoin and hyped it up;
In the bull market of 2020, the Federal Reserve released money, and many listed companies such as Tesla were included in the reserves;
The catalyst for the fourth bull market will be either the approval of spot ETFs or the inclusion of major countries in their national reserves.
Insights on Bigtime, a AAA blockbuster game on the Ethereum chain:
1. OK first issued a coin listing announcement in advance, so that those who want to buy coins can recharge to OK. However, after the coin is listed, it is only open to KYCs who have recharged to OK and non-Asian countries.
Those who can recharge into OK are early gold-farming players and market makers, especially those who recharged into OK. Many of them have been stuck for a year and must be selling their coins. Market makers have 90 million chips in their hands. The opening price is so low, and the circulating market value is only 2 million dollars. They will definitely not sell, and may even accept the players' low-priced chips. It is equivalent to that those who buy coins cannot buy, but those who sell coins can sell, which is a pure selling market.
Moreover, OK’s base camp is Chinese people. Chinese people and Asians cannot buy it, which means there is basically no buying. Only smart people among gold-making players will buy some.
If you don't think about this, it doesn't matter. There is another action later that clearly indicates that you will accept low-priced chips. That is, only open the recharge interface and close the withdrawal interface, which is equivalent to a Pixiu that only enters but does not exit. As long as there are coins, they will be swallowed up.
In the early days, those who wanted to buy could only go to Matcha and Chain, but Matcha and Chain were basically out of stock and the liquidity was very poor. Moreover, there was only a small pool on Chain, and the price was often 10%-50% higher than the CEX price, because the exchange's coins could not be transferred to the chain at all.
2. The main circulation and output control of this coin is actually controlled by the project party. So this coin can be completely manipulated by the project party and OK, not to mention that OK is also an investor.
Here is the reason.
First of all, the main circulation is the 120 million coins in the hands of market makers, and the 10 million coins from retail investors. Among them, 90 million have been recharged to OK. The coins in the hands of retail investors are only the 10 million coins produced by early players every day. Moreover, many of the coins recharged and sold at low prices in the early stage should have been taken away by OK and market makers, so more than 90% of the circulating chips are actually in the hands of OK and market makers.
Secondly, the project owner can control the output of the currency by controlling the speed of KYC. Because only early players who have passed KYC can withdraw the currency, and the new users who entered the market yesterday through fomo cannot withdraw the currency. No matter how many coins are bought, they can only be kept in the game wallet. Then the daily output and selling pressure of the currency mainly come from the daily output of about 10 million by early players.
When the market maker and OK have almost sold out their goods, once the contract is listed, a short order will be opened, and the leeks who bought NFTs at several times the price yesterday will be allowed to pass KYC and sell their coins to dump the market. The spot is also sold at a high price, and the leeks can still make money from the short orders after dumping the market.
3. Finally, let's talk about valuation. Bigtime raised $21 million in financing alone. Yesterday's opening price was 0.015, MC was more than $2 million, and FDV was only $75 million. MC was only 1/10 of the financing amount, and FDV's valuation was only more than 3 times. So it was okay to buy directly at Matcha at that time, because it was too underestimated...
Yesterday I saw someone on Twitter saying that listing on Coinbase at midnight is specifically targeting Chinese people. This is purely a conspiracy theory. First, many Chinese people will not sleep at 12 o'clock. Second, CB usually lists coins at this time. Refer to the screenshot below, the new products in September were also listed at 12 o'clock.
And looking at the list of investors, Circle invested, and Circle and CB are in the same boat, so it makes sense for CB to invest.
Finally, even though $Bigtime has increased more than 10 times, its current MC is less than half of the big garbage that is newly listed on Binance.
However, what is sad is that there are currently speed-up plug-ins in the game. It should be that some studios have already written scripts for quick gold earning. As for the gains?
It still depends on the passing of KYC. As of today, bigtime has shown some selling pressure on the price. In fact, it is just a mining coin. There is really no need to participate in the secondary level. There is no expectation. On the one hand, the speculation is too hot. Secondly, once KYC is continuously relaxed, the price will only fall. What's more, BN was already listed on the contract last night. The dog dealer is really a dog. Here I also advise those who want to recharge with large funds to learn from their mistakes.
Do you remember the popular Blur? It was also after BN signed the contract that the market crash began.
BTC：
The big cake fell below the daily upward channel, and the overall weakness is looking for reliable support. On the one hand, the main force is constantly shipping, and on the other hand, considering the ETF approval day on the 16th, it is highly likely that it will not pass. It has become a situation where funds are fleeing in advance, so the overall market trend is still on the way down, and there may be a slight rebound around 26K or 25K, but it is almost a foregone conclusion that it will fall below 25K.
The spot price has not yet reached the range where you can stock up. Be patient and wait for cheaper chips to appear. You should know that in a bear market, silver is worth one ounce, while in a bull market, gold is worth 999. The positions you can hold on to now will become your advantage in getting rich in the future. Good hunters spend most of their time patiently waiting.
Support levels: 26500, 26000, 25800, 25100
Pressure level: 27100/27500
It would be rogue not to break through 27,500!
ETH：
Priority is given to falling below the previous low. Laojia said that it is only a matter of time before it falls below 1500. However, after falling below 1550, it is necessary to consolidate and repair. There is a probability that the situation will be stabilized now, and a choice will be made after the direction of the big cake is revealed. The daily line forms a double top, and the three-stage bottom declines are all under the condition of pins, and there is no effective stop-loss sign. For the time being, it is expected to be repaired and consolidated.
ARB：
Ethereum is weakly linked, and there is no independent market trend for the time being. The overall market is in a negative decline, and there is no desire to participate.
ON:
If it falls below the consolidation box range, currently below 1, consider whether to intervene.
FACT:
It is still supported near 0.2, and has not fallen below the overall range like other altcoins for the time being, indicating that the main force is protecting the market, and the profiteers are intervening at low prices. AI intelligent leader, those who understand will understand.
LINK：
It is still consolidating at a low level on the overall weekly chart. It will have the possibility of moving upward only after the market stabilizes. The 6.6 below is a good space for intervention. It is a good coin.
