After a process of continuous exposure to information channels and following a large number of gigabrains in the Crypto field. I realize that individuals have missed or ignored too many opportunities to catch the recent trend when it was just in the forming stage to have a super beautiful position.
The feeling of missing out on something that "Oh, I knew this a long time ago" is very uncomfortable. If you can't control it, it's easy to fall into a state of fomo even though at this point the position and risks are no longer reasonable. In general, it's hot and spicy, but instead of jumping in and out, I'm determined to sit back and let the system see what key points need to be sensitive so that this time I can take advantage of the opportunity in the best way.
If we are attached to the market, our ability to receive news sources is the same, but most of us have never sat down and deeply sequenced events, information and keywords together. So our brain keeps busy with something but cannot focus on anything at all. At this time, the information received is almost zero, which is very wasteful.
To limit this situation, I sat down to rewrite a few criteria on how to keep up with new market-leading stories. Hopefully, when we have the overview items, we will dig deeper and see the opportunity for ourselves to take a position sooner.
I. UNDERSTAND THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF CRYPTO
That's right, everyone heard right! Before jumping into the dozens of constantly new updates of the Crypto market, the most important thing is that we must understand the basics of blockchain and Crypto.
To understand the fundamentals of cryptocurrency, it is important to understand the technology behind it, the different cryptocurrencies, and the market. The technology behind cryptocurrencies is based on blockchain, which is a decentralized ledger of transactions that is always secure and immutable.
Different cryptocurrencies use different algorithms, such as proof-of-work and proof-of-stake, to secure the network. In addition, another important factor is understanding the state of the market, including the current state and potential trends.
Next are the important elements that make up the Crypto market such as exchanges (CEXs, DEXs), wallets and wallet classifications and other services available to facilitate and demand transactions and exchanges. change. Additionally, based on the evolving market situation, we must also understand the different regulations and laws that may apply to cryptocurrencies (depending on the region).
When we understand all of these aspects, we can quickly grasp new concepts and more easily understand the meaning and impact of information on its central audience.
Surely newbies will need this the most, but I am still re-reading the articles on coin98 to synthesize and improve the areas of knowledge that are lacking. We encourage you to take the step of understanding as quickly as possible, because after a few weeks of the market recovering, I also realized that we are being influenced by price quite a lot.
II. FOLLOW THE TREND
We never actively look for trends, only when the trend has somewhat formed do we realize it. However, in the process of creating trends, market makers always insert messages surrounding a new story. We can notice these signs by monitoring popular coins/tokens and deeply reading the chain of information and news from the market combined with information and development milestones from the project.
Information sources in Crypto are very diverse, so if you don't know which quality source to focus on, it's inevitable that you'll be overloaded and rambling. To collect information most effectively, you can follow the following categories:
Market news channels: Twitter, Telegram (Defillama roundup, Thedailyape); Cryptopanic
Follow reliable sources of information: Project documents, experts, KOLs... usually just using Twitter is enough.
Market measurement tool: Lunarcrush (measure social activity, keywords); Defillama (tracks DeFi flows, stablecoins, projects); Moneyprinter (track fees collected & spent for system/project development)
In-depth research channels: Blockworks Research, Messari, Bankless,...
Take note of the signs you notice, don't ignore any small signal. This will help us better understand the market overview and filter out keywords to partly grasp what the market's next direction is.
Many people believe that big boys will often mention new keywords to form trends, this is quite true in recent times. For example, just based on the year-end summary reports of major Crypto organizations, we can completely follow the "liquid staking" or "AI" trend.
A simple example that I have implemented in a series of bullish catalysts in the past few months is as follows:
Arbitrum ecosystem – many innovative protocols appear → Competition in the system
L2s marathon – OP, ARB, zk, rollups,… → the trend of competition between L2s continues to increase
NFTs season – NFT coins (FLOW, APE…) → warming information
AI narrative – AI coins → CT shill enthusiastically
Is it all a coincidence? In fact, when we look at the overall picture, we see that the market is always growing. Above are the signs of trend formation, understanding the keywords that can create trends and targeting coins/tokens in that segment from the beginning to bring a super beautiful position.
However, with the cautious mentality in the bear market, most will ignore it or wait for more new confirmations to strengthen their confidence. So most people miss the opportunity (including me). Of course, if you want to be sharp, you have to practice a lot more. I believe this is a lesson I am trying to improve for next time.
III. DEEP ENGAGEMENT
Once you have a series of potential new trends and narratives, engage more deeply around them. The Crypto market changes very quickly, some of the signs can turn around at any time. So the next thing to do once you have a position is to continue looking for new confirmations to gain confidence?. Sounds familiar, right? This step should be done after we have a position with trending coins/tokens that can create a new leading story for the market.
Sensitivity is when one of the trends on our observation list begins to fade, the confirmation signs become increasingly faint. At this point, what needs to be done is to rebalance positions in trends that are still strengthening. Because we have a good position, the possibility of loss is not much, it is similar to when in trading we need to set a stop loss point, the difference is that it requires us to observe meticulously and be decisive.
Observing more deeply means actively searching for information and signs of confirmation surrounding the new narrative:
We continue to consolidate with general information on CT, experts & influencers, domestic and international crypto communities. An interesting point is that all the recent trends I have observed appeared very early in the Chinese CT community.
Read blogs & forums, project documents, follow events or join the Twitter Space. Twitter Space is the place where I heard speakers talk about LSD the earliest, around August last year before The Merge event took place. If you need to practice, find SSV Network's Twitter and listen to their 8-week podcast series around August 2022. I recapped the entire series and learned about the LSD keyword from here. But because of the bear market psychology plus after The Merge, the coins in this group have not taken off yet, so I ignored it and as a result, missed this trend, which is very unfortunate.
Taking the above step will help us stay informed about developments and keep up with the latest trends. And it's important that trends take time to form. If you don't follow them closely, it's easy to miss the trend.
IV. NETWORKING
I also wrote about this section in the previous "crypto journey..." article. Basically, networking here is about establishing relationships with people who have high coverage in the trend activities we are following. It could be someone from the project team in a trend-forming field, actively asking for their opinions and consulting their vision.
There are many points that if just observing and self-evaluating, it will be very subjective. So find subjects with opposing opinions and refer to the reasons they give to strengthen and reconsider the general perspective. However, it's only for reference because there are a lot of things that are extremely unreasonable but still create a trend. Let's look back at the trend history!
V. LOOKING BACK TO HISTORY
Don't be too strict and demand the logical validity of a new trend or narrative because the truth is that most trends are not completely clear. But let's go back to the ideas I wrote above, it's all about finding signs and strengthening signs through the community. That's right, the key here is that the community "wants" that trend to happen, so market makers build a narrative around that trend to gradually influence the psychology of participants. Then we have to swim along, but being in a position earlier than most is successful.
Let's look back at some past trends:
Doge coin: Don't tell me you guys don't fomo. Is anyone interested in the price increase logic of Doge coin and later a series of other meme coins that follow this trend? The community only hopes for one thing in common: "Elon will shill again soon".
AI: AI is a trend originating from ChatGPT - a traditional technology company, which has nothing to do with blockchain. But someone released these AI conversations talking about Crypto, at which point signs of a trend forming appeared. And we all know the result, I missed this trend because I ignored the above signals.
LUNC: After the fall of Terra, Do Kwon created LUNC. In August 2022, Binance announced the burning of LUNC. A normal investor knows that compared to the total supply of ~ 7000 billion tokens, Binance burning it does not affect the supply at all. But that's not a problem, the price still skyrocketed. If it's correct, then MM pushes the price first to make people feel better. Even though they're skeptical, the seemingly naive crowd still "hangs in there first." Does that sound familiar? Returning to section III, they ape-in first to take a position and then confirm in parallel when the trend runs. Because the market is red, "buy red, sell green" is the mantra to remember once again.
If a piece of news comes out in the center of attention that can attract and impact the imagination of the majority (xnxx), no matter how low the low IQ participant is, we should not rush to ignore it because it is very Maybe we will have to fomo at a higher price than those "low IQ" people. In fact, many examples have proven that trends are created from the community and beliefs that sound extremely silly.
So besides hitting the long-term trends of the market such as ETH, Layer2s, NFT. Observe the short-term leading stories, there will always be silly stories that are opportunities to make money for you. Especially don't ignore the guys who like to go against the crowd!!
BECAUSE. WHAT TO DO WHEN YOU HAVE MISSED THE TREND
The recent price increase is sure that many people missed the trend wave, so they feel regretful and uncomfortable. This leads to the psychology of fomo, fear of losing opportunities because they keep increasing. So if you've already missed the trend, what should you do to control the fomo mentality? I have to say that I really wanted to fomo, but I got beaten more times than I ate well, so I successfully restrained myself. Here's how I did it:
a) Accept missing the rising wave
Admitting that we missed out on good prices reduces our fomo mentality, making us want to jump on the train while it's launching. Don't try to chase green candles, when we look at the price chart is when we are manipulated into fomo psychology. Buy low positions and sell high positions, don't pay high prices on small time frames. If the trend continues to increase, there must be a recovery point. At that time, it is not too late to re-enter. Because if you can't bear to swing the green candle, you won't be able to bear it and sell it when the candle is red.
b) Find the rising wave trigger point
A long green candle must have accumulation, triggered by some reason. Instead of buying fomo, we follow the trend by finding points that create the trend. Understanding why the trend runs will help us balance the fomo emotion.
c) Wait for the price to adjust
When the trend runs, there will be an initial rising wave and a pullback point to push the new wave. Patiently wait for the position to recover and find a new price point. Don't look at the first rising wave chart and bid too low. I've missed adding many x2 numbers just because I paid too low and in an uptrend it's hard to return. In fact, if you have good technical analysis skills, you will find a better entry point.
d) Be patient
The biggest mistake is being impatient, not locking in profits but closing them down quickly. You must wait until the wave target point, you must take profits. Because when catching a trend, I believe that many people often listen to betting calls, not understanding the nature of the newly purchased token/coin. Therefore, it is very important to be patient and take profits and then decisively take profits.
Don't enter too many children, don't stand on one mountain and look at the other. If it's a trending product, be patient and the price will increase. Anyone can call the bet, but we must be the ones to choose the goods and once we choose, it is our responsibility to be patient and take profits. Give up the mentality of waiting for someone else to give you a profit-taking price. The market increases according to the trend but no one knows when it will break, predictions should only be for reference, remember!