At this point now, combined with various news in the market, I still tend to believe that a decline will occur within the next month.

The most important premise is that I believe that the rising market since the beginning of this round is just a rebound. Why is it a rebound? I have already given you a full explanation in the previous article, so I will not repeat it here.

The premise for the market to reach its peak is that oscillation around 30,000 will be the final rhythm of this round of rebound, and the oscillation range is about 10% above and below 30,000 US dollars. A large amount of data and market news, including market sentiment, is cited as the argument.

Since July, my view is that the market has begun to gradually decline. A black swan is expected in the fourth quarter, and it will start to look downward for the final bottom of this round of bear market as support, which will be used as a launching platform for the next bull market in the future.

The reason why it rebounded to around 28,000 in the past month is based on the previous major and minor premises, as well as technical K-line analysis.

Each round of analysis is based on facts and is consistent with the investment plan and logic that I formulated at the beginning.

It has rebounded in small steps for several weeks and has reached the current level of 28,000, instead of the pin-like rise in the first half of the year. The reason why the market moves in this way is that the current market is weak. When the bankers are in control, they will use violent pull-ups to attract everyone to enter the market when most people are not on the bus. However, once everyone starts to enter the market, the market will repeatedly suffer setbacks, that is, sideways fluctuations.

This is actually very easy to understand. When the market is rising, most people will not buy, but when the market price goes down, many people will start to buy at the bottom. Most players in the market operate in this way. Many people trap themselves step by step in this way, calling it distributed bottom fishing, but in fact they are just being led by the market to be trapped.

When most of the chips have been sold out, the price will fall violently, leaving this group of people on guard.

Currently, many altcoins have completely trapped a group of people. Bitcoin and Ethereum, as the leaders, are still struggling, but I personally estimate that they will not be able to struggle for too long. After all, the bottom of the market will eventually appear, and in terms of time, there is not much room for manipulation.

Then after a burst of momentum followed by decline and exhaustion, the market will return to where it came from.

That is around 20,000 US dollars.

Analyzing from another perspective, why do I personally think that the market will not go up?

As we all know, in the cryptocurrency market, there exists a group of the most staunch believers, namely the fixed-investment theorists. This group of people are the cornerstone and mainstay of the market. However, among this group of people, there are also some hypocritical believers who, under the guise of fixed-investment for faith, are actually not as firm as they say in their hearts. Such people are not desperate yet.

But we can already see signs of despair, which are gradually spreading.

So, I personally think that the downward weekly line will appear soon.

If you short sell, you will definitely choose the shortest-term, hottest, and most rising assets, such as TRB. There are very few people who hold spot assets TRB, and most of the chips are in the hands of the market makers. The market makers' previous pull-ups were all through contract matching, and the subsequent decline only requires them to sell off the huge amount of chips in their hands in stages.

The decline will be very smooth.

In addition, many people asked when to start building long-term positions. I personally have to wait a while because there is no new ecological story in the market. I think some big Vs in the currency circle are not paying attention to the currency market because there is no market at all. Instead, they do other things.

Sun Ge is already on TikTok connecting with some anchors to attract new investors, which shows that the old investors in the cryptocurrency circle are really unable to get the money anymore. I guess Sun Ge thinks we are stones in the toilet, smelly and hard, and there is no way to develop us anymore, so let's turn to attract some new people.

From this point of view, there is no money to be cut in the market at present, which is also a manifestation that the market is about to bottom out.

So, if it is a spot layout, wait a little longer, we can probably start soon.

The main thing is to wait for the Federal Reserve to pause in raising interest rates. It is estimated that there will be a slight increase next month. After all, the non-farm data is relatively strong, and the CPI data has fluctuated.

When it comes to trading, finance, and cryptocurrency, patience is actually very important. In a bull market, opportunities are discovered through trial and error, but in a bear market, opportunities mostly emerge through waiting.

When many people who have made regular investments start to withdraw, and those who have tried to buy at the bottom start to want to buy at the bottom, but are still concerned about the small price difference, that is the time for us to enter the market. We hope that we won’t have to wait too long for that day.

The Federal Reserve has been speaking frequently, where is the end point of the interest rate hikes?

(Let me first state the conclusion. The probability of no rate hike in November is gradually increasing. Be alert to the last insurance rate hike before the basis point is reached. The secondary crypto market will pay more attention to whether the next 100 basis point change will be a decrease or increase.) In the early morning, after Federal Reserve officials made dovish remarks and the conflict in the Middle East pushed safe-haven assets soaring, U.S. Treasuries recorded the biggest increase since March.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell as much as 18 basis points to 4.62% after the market reopened on Tuesday, while the two-year Treasury yield slipped 16 basis points to 4.93% as investors increased bets that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2023.

Fed officials "seem to be emphasizing that rising bond yields and tighter financial conditions will influence their thinking about the federal funds rate," said Andrew Ticehurst, rates strategist at Nomura Securities in Sydney. "Market pricing suggests the Fed may not raise rates again this year," he added, saying there was still a risk of one last "insurance hike."

However, a global financial market survey conducted by Deutsche Bank in October 2023 found that 75% of respondents believed that the next 100 basis point change in the US 10-year Treasury yield would be a decline (the average yield during the survey was 4.75%). This is a big reversal from the results in June.

However, the banking industry now has the Fed's BTFP policy tool as a backup, so there is no risk for the time being, but in six months, the BTFP mechanism will expire. The negative impact of high interest rates on the financial market may be further transmitted in the future.

In the past, when an election is approaching, QQQ and SPX500 have both seen good gains. Since the mid-term, the U.S. stock market has been on a bull run along with interest rate hikes. Judging from the market sentiment and the dot plot, 2023 was a painful year, but it will not be worse than this. Q3 of 2024 is worth looking forward to.

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