Why do everyone think that 2024 will be a bull market in the currency industry? There are many reasons why 2024 has attracted much attention, making it widely believed that it may be a bull market year in the currency circle. Here are some of the main factors:

Judging from the analysis below, do you think there will definitely be a bull market in 2024?

Part One: Bitcoin Halving Market Over the Years

Bitcoin halving occurs every four years, and the specific time is uncertain. At present, the next halving time is 2024.05.09, which is 319 days away. Let’s look back at the past halving cycles.

The first halving occurred in November 2012. The lowest point occurred 357 days before and the highest point occurred 371 days after that. The total lasted 735 days. The highest increase from the halving was 104 times.

The second halving occurred in July 2016. The lowest point occurred 546 days before and the highest point occurred 518 days after that. It lasted a total of 1071 days. The maximum increase from the halving was 40 times.

The third halving occurred in May 2020. The lowest point occurred 518 days before and the highest point occurred 546 days after that. It lasted a total of 1071 days. The maximum increase from the halving was 7.5 times.

There is a high probability that there will be a wave of calves before each halving cycle. We seem to be experiencing such a market at present. If the increase from the bottom to the top of the calf market does not exceed 3.4 times, if this time it is around 2-2.5 times, then This time the top of the Mavericks will be between 30,000-37,500;

The rising slope of each halving cycle continues to decrease. If the decline is about 16° according to the historical situation, then the next highest price should be around 65,000, and the highest price will not exceed the highest point of the last rise. The overall cycle increase will be from May 2024 From January to around March 2025, it will be around 1.5 times;

So if history really repeats itself according to simple rhymes, in terms of operations, we have the following conclusions:

The current price is not far from the calf top predicted before the halving;

Facing the next halving market, if the target choice is Bit, the imagination of the increase will not be too high, and it may be near the previous high;

A double dip may occur in the first quarter of next year, during the Russian election;

This article is written from the perspective of seeking a sword while carving a boat, but compared to before, the current macro background is very different.

Bitcoin was born due to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. Since then, the United States has continued to print money, starting a bull market that has lasted for more than ten years. The S&P 500 has dropped 6.A 5-fold increase. Compared with before, there are still many uncertainties:

The macroeconomy is not clear, and the potential impact of China's short-term RRR cut and interest rate cut has not yet emerged;

The international situation is changing rapidly, and the Russia-Ukraine war is still going on;

The interest rate hikes in the United States have not stopped yet. Although the rate hikes are now suspended, two more rate hikes are expected this year;

Whether U.S. real estate can land smoothly is still unknown, and the banking crisis is still there;

As the currency circle becomes larger and larger, the increase in each round becomes smaller and smaller;

After institutions entered the market in 2020, the correlation with the Nasdaq Index became higher and higher. Some people even regarded Bit as a technology stock in the U.S. stock market. When looking at Bit in the larger cycle of the U.S. stock market, even if there is a big release in 2020 , the increase does not seem to be high;

Part 2: The Fed’s interest rate hike cycle

Looking back at history, let’s first look at the interest rate hikes in the past 30 years:

The first round of interest rate hikes lasted for 12 months from February 1994 to February 1995, with the base interest rate ranging from 3% to 6%.

The background at that time was that relying on the electronic computer technology accumulated in the previous cycle, the United States was in an era of comprehensive take-off in information technology. Even with the interest rate hikes from 1994 to 1995, GDP growth has always remained above 3%.

Corresponding to the big cycle, this is also the beginning of this round of Kangbo prosperity. The characteristics of the prosperity period are low inflation and high growth. After the interest rate hike ended, the Nasdaq did not fall significantly.

The second round of interest rate hikes lasted 11 months from June 1999 to May 2000, with the benchmark interest rate raised from 4.75% to 6.5%.

The background at that time was the Internet speculative bubble from 1995 to 2001. The GDP growth rate had been maintained at around 4.5% all year round. After the last round of interest rate hikes, inflation dropped from 3% to around 1.7%. At this time, we were still in the Kangbo boom period. .

After 1998, the inflation trend was obvious (from around 1.7% to around 3.7%). In order to reduce financial risks and curb inflation, the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates based on the 4.75% interest rate until the Nasdaq reached its peak near 5,000 points in March 2000. After half of the year, it fell all the way to around 1100 points, when interest rates dropped from 6.5% to 2.5%.

It is worth mentioning that the Nasdaq did not enter a downward trend during the interest rate hike cycle, but first rose and then fell. Similarly, the beginning of the interest rate cut cycle did not bring an upward trend. Instead, the decline continued for 20 months. However, sudden events like 911 An interest rate cut can bring about a partial rebound in the market, but it cannot affect the general trend.

The third round of interest rate hikes lasted 25 months from 2004.6 to 2006.7, and the benchmark interest rate was raised from 1% to 5.25%.

then

The background is the beginning of a new production capacity cycle at the beginning of the century, China's accession to the WTO in December 2001, the post-9.11 disaster reconstruction in the United States, the economy began to recover, and the Kangbo boom period was coming to an end.

In one and a half years, the Nasdaq rose from 1100 points to 2100 points. At this time, the US GDP also returned to a growth rate of 5%, and the CPI further increased, rising from around 1.5% after the disaster to around 3.8%. To prevent a repeat of the past, the Federal Reserve carried out regular interest rate hikes.

As the interest rate hike cycle began, the stock market as a whole showed a volatile upward trend, GDP growth began to slow down, and CPI also fell smoothly back to post-disaster levels.

The fourth round of interest rate hikes lasted 36 months from 2015.12 to 2018.12, with the benchmark interest rate raised from 0% to 2.25%.

Synchronized with the Nasdaq, in August 2015, the second exploration before the bit halving was completed. The decline in energy prices gave China and the United States even signs of deflation in CPI. In order to curb the rise in inflation caused by the short-term excess of energy and the possibility of stagflation in the future, the United States has initiated an interest rate hike cycle.

During this round of interest rate hikes, the Nasdaq fluctuated upward, rising from a low of 4,300 to 8,100. GDP growth slowly recovered to around 3.5%, and CPI has been controlled below 3%.

The fifth round of interest rate hikes, 2022.3-? , which lasted for at least 18 months, and the benchmark interest rate was raised from 0% to at least 5.5-5.75%.