The Palestinian Islamic Resistance Organization (Hamas) launched a large-scale attack on Israel, in which a Chinese-Israeli girl was kidnapped.
Yesterday, Israel officially declared war on Hamas for the first time in fifty years!
U.S. President Biden has publicly announced his support for Israel and has dispatched a group of warships to the Eastern Mediterranean, including an aircraft carrier, a guided missile cruiser and a guided missile destroyer.
Historical background of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict:
Palestine was a former Ottoman Empire territory that was handed over to British administration by the League of Nations in 1922. In February 1947, the British government announced that it would relinquish control of Palestine and hand over Palestine to the United Nations, which had just been established two years ago.
United Nations Resolution 181 stipulates the establishment of two states, the Arab state and the Jewish state, on the Palestinian land with a total area of 27,000 square kilometers.
Israel immediately agreed and abided by this resolution, but the Arabs did not agree, thus launching the first Middle East war.
Through several Middle East wars, Israel defeated the Arabs and pushed back to the lands that originally belonged to Arabs. After the war, Israel's territory expanded by 77%, including most of Jerusalem.
The Arabs cannot defeat it militarily and want to return to the UN resolution of that year and restore the Palestinian state.
如果爆发新一轮的中东战争，可能会比俄乌战争更加复杂，那么这将会对比特币产生什么影响？
一、比特币的避险属性并不明显
When the Russia-Ukraine war started, global risk assets fell, and cryptocurrencies were not spared. Therefore, at present, the safe-haven properties of Bitcoin are not obvious, at least far inferior to gold.
二、战争会增加加密货币的使用
War inevitably imposes sanctions on one party, and cryptocurrency often becomes a settlement tool to break through sanctions.
3. Cryptocurrencies gain popularity faster
War is often accompanied by the depreciation or instability of the country's legal currency. The application of cryptocurrency, such as stablecoins, can at least maintain its value. According to a recent survey by Statista, Russia's cryptocurrency usage rose to 14% in 2023.
四、政策的变化
After the Russo-Ukrainian war, Russia significantly relaxed its control over cryptocurrency. For example, Russia plans to legalize cryptocurrency mining in 2024. On the other hand, the United States is strengthening its supervision.
五、全球通胀或经济衰退
War has always affected the whole world. The Middle East is equivalent to the world's oil depot. Every time a war starts, it is accompanied by a rise in energy prices, which will undoubtedly push up inflation. Inflation caused the U.S. dollar index to rise, U.S. stocks to fall, and Bitcoin to fluctuate. It has to be said that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the end of the year has increased again.
六、情绪上
巴以战争更像二个文明的冲突，所以会比俄乌战争更加复杂、持久和难以解决。对于投资而言，情况越复杂，避险的情绪就越重，这不利于比特币这类的风险市场。
Bitcoin market analysis
上一篇文章探讨了《2023年比特币最低会跌到什么位置？》，今天回到现况，分析下近期可能的走势。
1. Possible triangle shapes
比特币4小时顶背离得到确认，所以小时级别仍是以回落为主，那么回落到什么位置？
周线与三日线的支撑都在27300美元附近，所以，这里是一个重要的点位，若回落下来，可能形成一个三角形形态。
A triangle is usually a relay form. If a triangle is formed, there will be another wave of upward movement, and the probability of breaking through the previous high of $28,600 will increase.
2. Pay attention to the chip pressure area and Fibo 0.618 position
如图，上方是自31800以来的筹码分布情况。下位筹码峰的支撑在26100美元，上位筹码峰29100美元附近，同时29175是斐波那切0.618的位置，所以，如果行情继续上行，29000 - 29500美元是非常重要的压力区，一定要注意减仓。
The above basically covers the market situation from one to two weeks. For a larger period, you can see "Green Plum Cooking Coins: Speculation on the Construction of a Head and Shoulders Top in Bitcoin".
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