Yesterday, Palestine and Israel officially declared war. This should be the biggest war conflict in recent years. From a macro perspective, it is hard to say that regional conflicts will not lead to changes in the overall situation in Asia and Europe, and thus affect the current precarious financial situation in the world. At least it is believed that in conflicts like this, the first to pay the bill are traditional financial capital, and Bitcoin may be the one to absorb liquidity. Because there is a saying that war will hype Bitcoin for risk aversion!
On the market, Bitcoin has officially reached the high point of 28,000 points. From the daily line, I don’t think this wave can break through and continue upward. The next short-term trend choice will most likely have to go down again, so continue to maintain the layout. It is more important to be rational and follow deterministic market trends than to be short-term.
Operation layout. The mainstream fixed investment should be suspended directly after the big cake breaks through the trend line. This position is definitely a floating profit, and there is not much room for operation. For the mainstream sector, we need to pay attention to whether there will be an opportunity to sell up next, or continue to go short and pick up chips. In terms of position allocation, it is right for big cake to control at least half of the position.
As for the copycat, the ten-fold ambush sequence that has been brewing for several months has been prepared for a tenfold ambush that will most likely be in place next year. Before a black swan may occur in the next two months, I will send it to everyone for reference tomorrow or two days. If the market goes down, everyone can just watch it. There is no completely correct currency holding logic in the currency circle, and the results we can obtain are also based on cognitive market feedback.
In recent days, in addition to going outside, the community has also moved towards more refined planning. Taking advantage of the low market volatility, a one-on-one spot exclusive service sequence is planned. Everything we are doing now is to work hard with everyone to stock up on U in order to cope with the short-term market changes and make a proactive layout that surpasses our peers.
The recent market is very concerned about the exchange rate trend of ETH/BTC.
This is because the current ETH/BTC exchange rate is only 0.058, which is 17.14% away from the historical median of 0.07.
The market began to circulate FUD information about ETH, such as the theory that the POS consensus mechanism is invalid, the theory that Web3 is worthless, etc.
However, I personally judge that the ETH/BTC exchange rate deviates from the median value. The main reason is that in the current market with low market risk appetite, BTC has the hedging attribute of hedging the risks of the legal currency system, which provides stronger support for its price, while the market for ETH The characteristics behave more like a large technology company and are more positively related to risk appetite.
The previous relevant historical variables are streamlined, and only the closing price of the U.S. dollar index, which is a risk aversion indicator, and the Nasdaq 100 index, which is a risk appetite indicator, are retained, and all others are discarded.
The prediction results given by the linear regression model are as shown in the figure. The low slope of ETH will rise to 1700 in the next 30 days, with a confidence interval of 1400~2400.
According to this prediction result, investing in ETH at the current position has a good profit and loss ratio!
BTC’s market capitalization ratio has reached 49.92%, which can also be seen to a certain extent as to the stage of the current encryption market cycle.
In a bear market, everyone will choose to exchange altcoins for BTC for hedging. After all, BTC has gone through several rounds of bull and bear cycles. BTC is still the most resistant currency, with the smallest decline in the bear market. Holding BTC Owning BTC is much more secure than holding a lot of copycats.
Even ETH, which ranks second in market capitalization, is falling compared to BTC, and the exchange rate between ETH/BTC has fallen below the low point in the past 15 months.
In fact, not only ETH, but also the exchange rates between most currencies and BTC have fallen.
Regardless of whether the time period is 1 day, 2 days, 30 days, 1 year, 2 years, or even from the beginning of 2023 to the present, there are very few currencies that can increase more than BTC (green means the increase exceeds BTC).
The current altcoin quarter index (which refers to the period in the cryptocurrency market cycle when altcoins outperform Bitcoin) is 43, which is the proportion of the top 50 altcoins that have gained more than BTC in the last 90 days. is 43%.
When the Altcoin Quarter Index exceeds 75, it means that 75% of the top 50 altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin
Coin, this is when the altcoin season begins, which usually happens during a bull market.
Judging from the current stage of the cryptocurrency market cycle, now is still a good time to hoard Bitcoin, and you can invest in batches when the price drops.
If you don’t have chips in hand, the so-called cryptocurrency bull market is just someone else’s bull market.
Does October have the best market growth in history?
I don’t know why I always heard similar noises at the end of last month, so I calculated the monthly increases of BTC and ETH in October over the past five years (18-22) and compared them with the market changes in September, and finally came up with two objective conclusions. Data facts:
1. In four out of five years, the market closed the green K line in October, but in three years, it was in a downward trend in October.
2. In the years when they received green K, their single-month gains were not the highest in the year.
Therefore, there will be a high increase in October every year because there is no data and facts. On the contrary, the probability of a downward trend in October will be greater.
Today’s article ends here. If you think it’s well written, you can follow it and read~