10/6 BTC market analysis:
The US non-farm data will be released soon, the market heats up, and European stocks have risen year-on-year! With the decline in crude oil prices and the reduction in negative pressure on the US economy, will the market turn bullish?
Hi, ladies and boys, welcome to Uncle Cat's Coin Talk. Today is the last day of the holiday, have you returned to your normal state? !
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at around 27,700. The market started to fall during the European and American trading hours last night, then fluctuated sideways. It fluctuated and rose significantly during the Asian trading hours. Although the trading volume is not large, the market is rising steadily. It can be seen that the pressure range of 27,500 to 28,000 has been significantly weakened.
As of 16:00 in the afternoon, the options market has completed a large number of deliveries. Currently, the long options have been delivered. It is unknown whether the downward support still exists. According to experience, after the options delivery is completed, the downward support will obviously be reduced.
The 1-hour, 4-hour and daily Bollinger bands have all shown an upward trend, and the 4-hour band has gradually shown a rhythm of contraction and change. Since yesterday, several big Vs on Twitter have been arguing about the long and short trends. In fact, everyone has their own opinions and their own basis. There is no need to win over others. As long as you have a reason and evidence, you are a good blogger. My personal opinion-has the market really turned bullish now? I don’t think so. I will fully analyze the current market situation below. In fact, many people think that the reason why the market is turning bullish is that the market has been rising during this period. Of course, there are declines, and the rebound is also obvious, and the technical aspects all show a bullish trend. However, many people may ignore the core reason, so they directly determine that it is currently a bullish market. And I still look bearish because of the overall macroeconomics and market sentiment. Below I will explain my views and analysis one by one.
Let's first talk about today's hot topic, tonight's non-farm data. The data shown by Wednesday's small non-farm data eased the market's expectations of the Fed's rate hike at the end of the year, but followed by last night's unemployment data. I also said in my market analysis the day before yesterday that the Fed has appropriately raised expectations. The unemployment data increased, but it was less than expected, and it would not affect the Fed's expectations of a rate hike at the end of the year. However, after the data came out, the market rose instead of falling, but it also fell in the early morning. Why is this? From the time, we can clearly see that although the volume during the intraday Asian trading time is still not large, the market is rising again, while the European and American time is indeed selling.
As for the non-farm payrolls data tonight, the previous value was 18.7 and the expected value was 17. This time the expected value is lower. If the data is basically in line with expectations, or slightly lower than expectations, it will still give the Fed a reason to raise interest rates at the end of the year. Although the number of employed people has decreased, as long as the decrease is within expectations, the Fed will not be soft.
I have been talking about the Fed's desire and determination to raise interest rates these days, so I won't repeat it. Many people say that the US Labor Bureau likes to falsify data. This is true. The purpose of the data is to serve the government and allow the US government to better complete economic regulation. To put it bluntly, it is just to provide a reason. As for the Fed's determination and reasons for raising interest rates, tonight's non-agricultural data will basically be around 17. It is acceptable to exceed the expected value of 17 or slightly lower than 17. As long as it is not significantly lower than the expected value, it will not change the Fed's desire to raise interest rates. If it is higher than expected, it may greatly give the Fed a reason to raise interest rates. The increase in non-agricultural employment can be directly understood as the current trend of the US economy is good. The only reason that prevents the Fed from maintaining high interest rates or even raising interest rates again is that the US economy is in crisis, forcing the Fed to cautiously raise interest rates or even lower interest rates to save the current economy. Of course, at present, although we can clearly feel the decline of the US economy, this decline still cannot shake the Fed's desire to raise interest rates. At the same time, today's original US quotes began to fall, and the reduction in crude oil costs has greatly alleviated the pressure on the US economy.
To answer the question we mentioned at the beginning, why is the market still showing a clear upward sentiment? Especially during the intraday Asian session. Old fans with good memories should still remember that I said before the holiday that many financial markets such as the stock market in China will be closed during the short holiday, and a lot of funds will be withdrawn for risk aversion. I also said at the time that it is still unknown whether such funds will enter the crypto market or how much will come in. At present, the pattern of the past few days is basically selling in the European and American sessions in the early morning, and bottom-fishing in the intraday Asian session. Long-short game. The reason for this bottom-fishing sentiment in the domestic market is that there are voices of the bull market starting in various media, especially in combination with the technical aspect, there are frequent signals of bottom-fishing and long positions. Of course, the downward trend in the early morning also caused heavy losses to the bulls in the contract market.
At the beginning of the article, I said that my personal opinion is that the market is bearish at present. Of course, we should not be rigid in looking at trends, and we should not be too subjective and extreme to stick to one path. I have also read the articles of bloggers who are bullish during this period. Many people have some truth in what they say, but I have said that the start of a bull market in the market must require people and funds. Although the intraday market has been active during the holidays, and although the trading volume is still not too large, it is much better than the previous low trading volume. However, there is still no sign of the start of the overall bull market. Of course, whether the market will turn bullish in the future or not, we need to pay attention to two factors.
The first factor is tonight's non-agricultural data. If the data is really bad, and the US economy is really in crisis and needs to adjust its policies, the Fed's expectations of raising interest rates will be greatly reduced. Then the market will usher in a wave of bullish rebounds, which is normal.
The second factor is that the domestic holiday will end tomorrow, and the stock market will not officially open until next Monday. We have to wait until Monday to see the stock market performance and even whether funds will flow back to the stock market. If the stock market opens normally and there is no capital outflow from the crypto market, then we can also turn to a long market in the short term.
In other words, I don’t think the early stage of the bull market will not come, but I don’t think it’s right now. Of course, if the non-agricultural data tonight, plus the intraday trading volume we see next Monday, becomes active again, we need to pay attention to this sentiment, and we can’t just look at the bear market, and we should turn to the bull market when we should. However, it is unknown how long the bull market can last. Whether it is from the perspective of the macro economy or the market sentiment, there are indeed not many newcomers entering the market, and not much capital returning to the market. The recent market is that the big cake sucks the blood of the cottage. Many people think that this is the reason for the start of the bull market, but I personally think that this is simply a lack of funds, all anchored to the big cake. This situation has also occurred in the bear market in the past two months. It does not constitute a sign of the early stage of the bull market.
To sum up, tonight's non-farm data will most likely be in line with expectations, but I am still bearish on the trend. If tonight's data reduces expectations for the Fed's rate hike, and while observing the intraday trading volume over the weekend and the situation on Monday, if bullish sentiment is still relatively strong, we can appropriately switch to short-term longs.
Trading straregy:
Regarding contracts, I personally suggest that you do not open a position for tonight's non-agricultural market. If you open a position, you should set a high expectation to go short. Because the non-agricultural data may be related to the Fed's expectations of raising interest rates at the end of the year, the volatility may be more obvious. I strongly recommend that if you do not understand the opening strategy, it is best to wait and see with a short position.
There is no need to say much about spot trading. Buy at the bottom first. If you want to do short-term spot trading but are worried about being hit by the market, then wait until next Monday to see the situation. Don't be anxious. Don't be anxious. In this market, you have to be patient and steady to make money.
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