BeinCrypto analyst Jakub Dziadkowiec analyzes the market cycle from the perspective of the halving period and believes that if history repeats itself, the bull market will not start until next year at the earliest.
The club summarizes and compiles it.
According to the latest data, 85% of the time has passed since the May 2020 halving to the next round of halving.
Meanwhile, supply held by long-term holders (LTH) is near all-time highs (ATH).
In previous cycles this was a signal near a macro bottom, followed by the early stages of a new cycle.
Historically, the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has been an indicator of the health of the crypto market. Historically, this metric has been negatively correlated with Bitcoin’s long-term price action.
Cryptocurrency analyst @theationalroot posted a chart on the X platform of the number of Bitcoins in the hands of long-term holders.
In the chart, the first thing to notice is the fact that the proportion of Bitcoin in circulation in the hands of long-term holders is currently close to around 76% of its ATH.
The ATH record was set in late 2015 when Bitcoin price ended its accumulation phase before the second halving, and each time the metric peaks for a given cycle months before the Bitcoin halving occurs.
After this local peak, Bitcoin in the hands of long-term holders gradually declined and traded sideways until the next few months after the halving.
The sharp drop in this metric comes about 6 months after the halving, before the cryptocurrency entered a full bull run. The Bitcoin halving is currently 85% complete. For the remaining 15% of the time, Bitcoin’s price moved essentially sideways.
Because compared to the two bull markets in 2016 and 2020, the price of Bitcoin is basically moving sideways.
The difference is that before these two cycles, Bitcoin experienced a sideways trend with an upward tendency.
On the other hand, in the last cycle, the black swan caused by COVID-19 gave investors additional opportunities. They can buy the dip ahead of the planned halving.
If history repeats itself, the crypto market could face a sideways trend for about a year in the long term.
The Bitcoin halving, scheduled for mid-April 2024, may not have an immediate impact on Bitcoin’s price. The impact may not be felt until the last quarter of 2024 and throughout 2025.
This prediction is consistent with the trends seen on the long-term holder position chart.
该指标目前正在接近 ATH。还需要大约一年的时间来扭转趋势。当长期持有者在比特币减半后开始出售时，这将是加密货币牛市开始的首批信号之一。