The recency effect in investing
People are naturally very insensitive to probabilities, and they have a vague memory of recent events. When it comes to investment, they are worried about recent events and tend to forget more distant ones.
For example, if the stock price has risen well recently, I feel that it will always rise. It has fallen a lot recently, and I feel like it will never be possible. For example: If the market goes up this week, I think a bull is coming, but if it goes down again, I think there is a black swan.
However, I think investing and trading are anti-human.
When there was a big rise, I would recall the biggest harm she had done to me, how much money I lost, or the darkest moments of the three permanent capital losses in my previous investments. When there is a sharp decline, make a quantitative and qualitative judgment as to whether this is a historical industry or target or a cyclical industry or target. If the target is not dead, it will not keep falling.
The big pie is like this, U.S. stocks are like this, Big A is like this, and U.S. debt TLT is like this.
When someone is trying to grab it, we will give the chips to the lucky person;
When people cast aside us, we silently "pick up trash".
$BTC $ETH
People are naturally very insensitive to probabilities, and they have a vague memory of recent events. When it comes to investment, they are worried about recent events and tend to forget more distant ones.
For example, if the stock price has risen well recently, I feel that it will always rise. It has fallen a lot recently, and I feel like it will never be possible. For example: If the market goes up this week, I think a bull is coming, but if it goes down again, I think there is a black swan.
However, I think investing and trading are anti-human.
When there was a big rise, I would recall the biggest harm she had done to me, how much money I lost, or the darkest moments of the three permanent capital losses in my previous investments. When there is a sharp decline, make a quantitative and qualitative judgment as to whether this is a historical industry or target or a cyclical industry or target. If the target is not dead, it will not keep falling.
The big pie is like this, U.S. stocks are like this, Big A is like this, and U.S. debt TLT is like this.
When someone is trying to grab it, we will give the chips to the lucky person;
When people cast aside us, we silently "pick up trash".
$BTC $ETH