The probability of the Cancun upgrade and the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in November is 73.7%. If the Fed stops raising interest rates in Q4, what impact will it have on the market?
First of all, regarding the Fed's interest rate hike, the dot plot data shows that there is a high probability of a rate hike by the end of the year. Then we assume that we stop raising interest rates. We don’t need to go into details about the impact of the liquidity of the U.S. economy on the financial risk market. The interest rate hikes this year can be seen. The market fluctuations tell us that in addition to the U.S. index, U.S. bonds and U.S. stocks, The market liquidity for other risks has almost dried up, which is especially obvious for the currency market. Stopping interest rate increases will bring more liquidity to the market, and funds will not move closer to U.S. bonds and will seek higher-yielding markets. As for the current liquidity in the currency circle, it can be said that as long as there is substantial benefit, it will bring violent fluctuations to the market. The premise must be substantial benefits. The current game of funds on the market is more about waiting, whether it is waiting for Brad's ETF or stopping interest rate increases or even cutting interest rates. Of course, more expectations are still in 24 years.
First of all, regarding the Fed's interest rate hike, the dot plot data shows that there is a high probability of a rate hike by the end of the year. Then we assume that we stop raising interest rates. We don’t need to go into details about the impact of the liquidity of the U.S. economy on the financial risk market. The interest rate hikes this year can be seen. The market fluctuations tell us that in addition to the U.S. index, U.S. bonds and U.S. stocks, The market liquidity for other risks has almost dried up, which is especially obvious for the currency market. Stopping interest rate increases will bring more liquidity to the market, and funds will not move closer to U.S. bonds and will seek higher-yielding markets. As for the current liquidity in the currency circle, it can be said that as long as there is substantial benefit, it will bring violent fluctuations to the market. The premise must be substantial benefits. The current game of funds on the market is more about waiting, whether it is waiting for Brad's ETF or stopping interest rate increases or even cutting interest rates. Of course, more expectations are still in 24 years.