With expectations for Bitcoin ETFs from giants like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco, as well as expectations for the April 2024 halving, forecasts for Bitcoin prices next year show a wide range of fluctuations. From JPMorgan to Standard Chartered, here are the noteworthy predictions for 2024:
1. Pantera Capital: $150,000
Pantera Capital, led by Dan Morehead, predicted in an August “Blockchain Letter” that Bitcoin prices could rise to $147,843 after the 2024 halving. They believe that using the stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio, the price model suggests that Bitcoin’s valuation will become more pronounced relative to its scarcity.
Specifically, Pantera Capital said, “The 2020 halving reduced the supply of new Bitcoins by 43% relative to the previous halving. It had an impact on price of up to 23%.” Using history as a reference, this may indicate price It will rise from US$35,000 before the halving to US$148,000 after the halving. However, not all Bitcoin supporters agree, having recently witnessed failed predictions based on this model.
2. Standard Chartered Bank: $120,000
In a recent research note in July, Standard Chartered Bank offered a bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s potential trajectory. The British multinational bank currently expects the value of Bitcoin to rise to $50,000 by the end of this year, and could surge to $120,000 by the end of 2024. This revised forecast from Standard Chartered Bank marks an improvement from their previous forecast in April. They expect Bitcoin to reach a peak price of $100,000.
The upward revision of the bank's forecast is supported by several determinants. It is worth noting that one of the main reasons for the potential price increase is the ongoing banking crisis. Additionally, the report reveals that the rising profitability of Bitcoin miners is a key factor influencing the price trajectory. Geoff Kendrick, head of foreign exchange and digital asset research, highlighted the important role of miners. “The rationale for this is that in addition to maintaining the Bitcoin ledger, miners also play a key role in determining the net supply of newly mined Bitcoins,” he noted.
3. JPMorgan Chase: $45,000 per Bitcoin
JPMorgan Chase, one of the world's leading investment banks, expects Bitcoin's growth to be more limited, predicting it will rise to $45,000. This forecast was influenced by the surge in gold prices. Historically, the price movements of Bitcoin and gold have shown a correlation, with gold prices recently topping the $2,000 per ounce mark, reinforcing JPMorgan’s conservative view on Bitcoin.
JPMorgan strategists explained in a detailed note in May: "As gold prices rise above $2,000, the value of gold held for investment purposes outside central banks is approximately [$3 trillion]. So, this Indicating a Bitcoin price of $45,000, the premise is that BTC will achieve a gold-like status among private investors.”
4. Matrixport: $125,000 by end of 2024
In July this year, well-known crypto service provider Matrixport predicted that the price of Bitcoin could surge to $125,000 by the end of 2024. This optimistic outlook is based on historical price patterns and one important signal: Bitcoin recently topped $31,000 in mid-2024. In July, it hit its highest level in more than a year. Historically, such milestones mark the end of a bear market and the beginning of a strong bull market.
By comparing these patterns to historical data from 2015, 2019 and 2020, Matrixport estimates potential gains of up to 123% over 12 months and 310% over 18 months. This implies potential Bitcoin prices of $65,539 and $125,731 in the respective time frames.
5. Tim Draper: $250,000
Renowned venture capitalist Tim Draper maintains a highly optimistic outlook for Bitcoin. Although his previous prediction that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by June 2023 did not materialize, he remains optimistic about the cryptocurrency's long-term potential. In an interview with Bloomberg TV in July, Draper attributed recent U.S. regulatory actions, such as those against Coinbase and BN, to BTC’s short-term downward trend.
Despite these challenges, Draper still believes in the transformative power of Bitcoin and believes it has the potential to reach $250,000, although that may not be until 2024 or 2025 now. His confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to revolutionize finance and maintain its long-term value remains unwavering.
6. Berenberg: Bitcoin at $56,630 at halving
German investment bank Berenberg revised its forecast in July, expecting it to reach $56,630 by April 2024. This upward correction is supported by improving market sentiment, attributed to expectations for the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 and growing interest shown by prominent institutional players.
Berenberg’s team of analysts, led by the insightful Mark Palmer, highlighted that they expect Bitcoin’s value to appreciate significantly in the coming months. This prediction is driven by two key factors: the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event and the growing enthusiasm shown by important institutions.
Berenberg also reiterated a buy rating on Microstrategy stock, underscoring their confidence in the market. The bank has revised Microstrategy’s stock price target to $510 from $430, citing the higher valuation of the company’s BTC holdings and improving prospects for its software business.
7. Blockware Solutions: $400,000
In an August analysis titled "2024 Halving Analysis: Understanding the Market Cycles and Opportunities Created by Halvings," Blockware Intelligence took an in-depth look at how Bitcoin prices will fare during the next halving period, expected in 2024/25. ) to reach $400,000.
A core factor identified in the study is the role of halvings in shaping Bitcoin market cycles. The report claims that a large portion of the selling pressure is borne by miners, who receive newly minted Bitcoin, most of which must be sold to cover operating costs. However, the halving event helps weed out inefficient miners, thereby reducing selling pressure.
The study highlights that as supply decreases due to the halving, demand becomes the main determinant of Bitcoin market price. Historical data shows that halving events are typically followed by a surge in demand. Market participants are aware of the supply-side dynamics brought about by the halving and are ready to deploy capital at the first sign of upward momentum, which could lead to significant price increases. This surge in demand is especially evident in current on-chain data, validating the positive sentiment surrounding the halving event.
8. Summary
In addition to these noteworthy predictions, there are a host of other price predictions for BTC, from Cathie Wood (ARK Invest)’s ambitious $1 million prediction to Mike Novogratz (Galaxy Digital)’s $500,000 prediction, Tom Lee (Fundstrat Global) ’s $180,000, Robert Kiyosaki (Rich Dad’s prediction company) $100,000, Adam Back’s $100,000 and Arthur Hayes’ $70,000 predictions highlight the different views on Bitcoin’s future value.