Veteran analyst Filbfilb believes that Bitcoin (BTC) has a chance to close at $35,000 by the end of 2023, albeit lower in between.
In a new interview with Cointelegraph, the co-founder of trading suite Decentrader revealed some BTC price targets that should resonate with the long-term holder base.
Bitcoin’s current uptrend faces multiple obstacles, and there are various key differences between the current cycle and previous ones. It’s not just the Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) that’s collapsing; the entire macroeconomic environment looks markedly different than it did a few years ago.
Filbfilb predicts that the block subsidy halving in April 2024 will still have a cathartic effect on BTC price performance. By then, BTC/USD could even go as high as $46,000, but losses are “likely” to follow.
Felb believes BTC price could ‘fall’ to low $20,000
Cointelegraph (CT): In the short term, you recently predicted that BTC prices will fall again to “crush the remaining hopium.” Where do you think the long-term bottom lies?
FF: It depends; as we saw during the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, the floor was just above $3,000, so I would expect the lows around $16,000 seen after the FTX crash to hold. However, avoiding a black swan event, lows in the $20,000s seem possible.
CT: Do you still expect a reversal in price action in Q4 as miners and smart money “buy the rumor mill” about the halving?
FF: Based on previous cycles, we have seen a contraction in the supply of new emissions to the market before the halving. Coupled with the increase in speculative demand, it seems to me that this dynamic is likely to repeat itself.
CT: Speaking of miners, what is your stance on price versus hashrate, considering how the latter continues to hit new highs?
FF: I cannot determine a direct correlation between hash rate and price.
CT: Has the price action of BTC this year surprised you compared to other pre-halving years?
FF: The failure to break above the 100-week moving average so far is a notable divergence. In the past, this has somewhat confirmed a bull run. Timing-wise, the rise from the 2022 low is consistent with what we have seen previously.
CT: A lot has been made about the outcome of Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC last week – how significant do you think this news really is? Do you see US Bitcoin spot ETF approval imminent?
FF: The SEC seems to have a "delay at all costs" policy, which now includes unreasonable rejections. If you look at the performance of this room, i.e., BlackRock et al., with a slew of ETF filings, it seems unlikely that the largest institutional asset managers would do little due diligence and expect failure. In my humble opinion, it is a question of "when" approval will be obtained, not "if."
CT: You’ve called U.S. inflation the “elephant in the room” of this cycle — how will this impact what happens after the Bitcoin halving next year?
FF: The longer inflation and interest rates remain high, the less disposable income there is for the retail sector. Additionally, the cost of capital generally increases due to higher risk-free rates; meaning that asset allocations to riskier assets become less attractive. The longer this situation remains the status quo, the less capital will be available to seek investments like Bitcoin.
CT: What is your preferred noise-free indicator for tracking BTC price?
FF: At a high level, directional price momentum, coupled with market positioning (such as the long/short ratio, funding rate, and open interest) supports my view of the overall market when determining short-term trends.
CT: What is your BTC price target for the end of the year and the 2024 halving?
FF: Assuming no black swan events, around $35,000 by the end of this year and possibly as high as $46,000 sometime before the halving in the first quarter of 2024.
DOG, XRP stand out among altcoins
CT: Bitcoin aside, are you surprised by the collapse of the NFT market? Does it have a future?
Related: Bitcoin Price Indicator Replicates Last Move Before -25% FTX Crash
FF: I’m not surprised by the NFT debacle. I do think there is some utility in some forms of NFTs, such as for ticketing and music applications; however, overpriced “art” has never been something I could fathom.
CT: Are there any particular altcoins that you think will do particularly well in the new cycle?
FF: Currently, I am mainly focused on Bitcoin; altcoins tend to act after the halving. However, I expect XRP (XRP) to do well in the next cycle as it settles its legal case with the SEC and effectively catches up in market share. I also do not rule out Dogecoin (DOGE) performing well again, especially if Elon Musk integrates the cryptocurrency into X.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading action involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Author: Deepchain DCNews
Compiled by: Sister Shen
Twitter: DeepChain
Twitter：https://twitter.com/DeepChainUS
