In the next bull market, you must seize your Kondratieff cycle

比特水手 · 2023-09-07T05:58:08.000Z

A wave of people are freed by a Kang wave cycle. The currency circle compresses the 10-year cycle of the macro market to 4 years, so the proportion of free people in the currency circle is far more than that of the Internet. 1/ How do we dance with the Kang wave cycle of the currency circle? The Internet: relies on the macro cycle, with an economic crisis occurring once every 10 years. The currency circle: relies on the halving narrative, with a bull-bear cycle occurring every 4 years. As a currency circle person: What should we do to achieve a wave of freedom? 2/ The Internet relies on macro cycles. Macroeconomics is sometimes metaphysics, so there is a saying: an economic crisis will occur about every 10 years. What is more metaphysical is that major economic turmoil will indeed occur every 10 years or so, whether it is Subprime mortgage crisis or epidemic? So how does Web2 company respond? Paradoxically, most companies have not responded because 10 years is too long and no one can wait that long.

Each Kondratieff cycle brings freedom to a group of people. The cryptocurrency industry has compressed the 10-year cycle of the macro market into 4 years, so the proportion of free people in the cryptocurrency industry is much higher than that in the Internet industry. 1/ How do we dance with the Kondratieff cycle in the cryptocurrency industry? The Internet: Depends on the macro cycle, and there is an economic crisis every 10 years. The cryptocurrency industry: Depends on the halving narrative, and there is a bull-bear cycle every 4 years. As a cryptocurrency investor: What should I do to achieve a wave of freedom?
2/ The Internet relies on macro cycles. Macroeconomics is sometimes mysterious, so there is a saying: an economic crisis occurs about every 10 years. What is even more mysterious is that there is indeed a major economic turmoil every 10 years or so, whether it is the subprime mortgage crisis or the epidemic. So how do Web2 companies respond? The irony is that most companies do not respond, because 10 years is too long and people can't wait that long.
3/ Let’s take a quick look at previous IPO waves: around 2000, the Internet bubble, the recovery period from the 1997 economic crisis; around 2005, the global economic recovery, the early period of the economic crisis; around 10 years, the recovery after the financial crisis, the Fed adopted an easy policy; around 20 years, the Fed’s unlimited QE, ample liquidity. This is completely in line with the Merrill Lynch Clock Theory: going public during recovery and overheating, and growing slowly during stagflation and recession.
4/ From the above data, we can roughly see that if you want to go public, you must meet the following conditions - sufficient market funds, preferably when the Federal Reserve is loosening its monetary policy, when the bubble is the largest, the valuation is the highest - rapid economic recovery, in fact, the economic recovery, when the Federal Reserve is slowly loosening its monetary policy, the company's valuation will also rise. Don't go public when the market is falling, there will be no underwriters, low valuations, and the market value will continue to fall. The Chinese stocks listed in the United States in the past two years are a living example.
5/ The cryptocurrency circle relies on the halving narrative, and the bull-bear cycle lasts for 4 years. The actual circulation impact of BTC halving is already very small, but why is there still a halving market? It is because of narrative and expectations. The Bitcoin halving narrative has the greatest consensus basis. Whether it is an institution or a dealer, everyone has limited funds, so narrative leverage is needed, that is, to promote it in line with everyone's consensus rather than creating a concept by themselves. This has the highest ROI.
6/ The cryptocurrency industry relies on the halving narrative, and the bull-bear cycle is 4 years. Here comes a question: When do you think the result of whether the SEC's ETF is approved will be announced? SEC + institutions: They all hope to make money before and after the BTC halving, because they do not make money from ETFs, but from the expectations of ETFs, and the expectations before and after the BTC halving are stronger and the cost-effectiveness is the highest. (I'll dig a hole and write about this separately).
7/ What is the difference between Web2 and Web3? We will not discuss the differences in detail, but just talk about this small Kondratieff cycle. Many entrepreneurs cannot survive a 10-year cycle. How many years can a person be most energetic? This is the objective trend, and it is also the reason why many Web2 entrepreneurs start up at the wrong time, which means that their careers are doomed to be unsuccessful.
8/ What is the difference between Web2 and Web3? The 4-year cycle of the cryptocurrency world is different. Four years may seem long, but according to the Merrill Lynch clock theory, two of the four years can be utilized, so the opportunities in the cryptocurrency world are much greater than those in Web2. So here, cryptocurrency people who want freedom need to pay attention: don’t waste any crisis!
9/ Don’t waste any crisis. According to the Merrill Lynch clock theory: 20 years is a recession period, the Fed cuts interest rates, and funds flow into the cryptocurrency circle. 21 years is a recovery period, the Fed continues to cut interest rates, and funds are still flowing into the cryptocurrency circle. 22 years is an overheating period, the Fed begins to raise interest rates, and funds begin to flow out of the cryptocurrency circle. 23 years is a stagflation period, the Fed is still raising interest rates, and more funds are flowing out.
10/ Don’t waste any crisis. Then, in 24 years, we will enter the next cycle [recession period], the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, and funds will flow into the cryptocurrency circle. In 24 years, there will be an opportunity to buy assets at the bottom. Whether everyone is free depends on this wave. Keep the bullets, prepare the tools, learn the theory, and look at the villa. As for what assets to buy at the bottom, please refer to my later articles. #美联储是否加息？ #带你看看币安Launchpad #解析cyber #CYBER 