News focus
1. SEC postpones decision on spot Bitcoin ETFs of seven institutions including BlackRock
2. Binance reminds users to exchange BUSD for other stablecoins before February 24
3. Musk denies that Twitter will issue X tokens for creators
4. On-chain data shows that the ETH whales who chased the rise and breakthrough at 1714 the day before have sold their stocks at 1648
September started with a bang, and there have been major dramas in recent days. The SEC officially postponed the decision on the spot Bitcoin ETF of seven institutions including BlackRock and WisdomTree. The next decision will be concentrated around October 17, which means that the ETF narrative will fall into a period of exhaustion from early September to mid-October, and the short-term bullish sentiment brought about by Grayscale’s victory two days ago has also been completely released.
Excluding tonight's non-agricultural data, the most critical macro game in September lies in the Fed's interest rate decision in the second half of the month, especially the dot plot results. Both long and short sides will bet on the rate hike this year based on the dot plot, which will have a relatively large impact on the market and is also a difficult stage for operations this month.
From a technical perspective: the market has returned to the starting point, and now the 4-hour structure is showing signs of a head and shoulders top with 28,000 as the head. Currently, the 4-hour structure has just touched the zero axis, and the adjustment is still continuing. In addition, the hourly structure has been adjusted for two consecutive days, and no resonance has been achieved in the middle. At present, the capital flow has broken through the oversold area, but the short-term rebound strength is weak, so the market will still have a need to find a bottom. After the hourly line diverges twice, resonance will appear before trying short-term longs.
Now the strong resistance of the market is maintained in the 26,800 area, and the low level is paying attention to the defense of 25,800. There may be some adjustments during the day with the help of the evening non-farm data, but after experiencing a round of waterfalls yesterday, the market's intervention is relatively sluggish, and it is not believed that there will be too much consolidation.
Recommended operation: High altitude as the main, low altitude as the auxiliary
After the Bitcoin price is around 25800, enter the market with short positions, and the target is 26300-26800
Ethereum is near 1630, enter the market with short positions, target 1650-1680
